Will Leon Draisaitl Steal Another Art Ross From Connor McDavid?

[CanadienShark]

Yes. Not in a healthy year for both players, but if McDavid misses 5-10 games, I could see it.

 

[CanadienShark]

Even if Drai/Kucherov win this upcoming one? In that case id disagree.

That's the point everyone is making to you. If Kucherov or Draisaitl win next year, we can have that debate about who's the best. Until then though, McDavid is the favourite.

 

[thadd]

I actually find all 3 questions mostly irrelevant to be honest.

Will McDavid stay healthy? I'm sure he'll have some injuries here and there. Even if in a year he misses ~20 games - Drai hasn't exactly established himself as the surefire #2 favorite to the Ross. He still has to compete with Mackinnon, Kucherov....guys like Matthews/Eichel and many more likely step up, etc. So even if McDavid gets injured some seasons and misses the ross - the bigger question of how likely Drai is to be the one in second place to take over and win the Ross remains.

Quality wingers. I'm not sure. Crosby/Malkin is the easiest comparable of course. Did Crosby have quality wingers in his career? For the most part, not really. I know he only won 2 rosses, but we all know he wins minimum 2 more without major/unlucky injuries, and maybe even more. McDavid is a comparable tier to Crosby for point production. I see no reason why he couldn't still produce a ton of points even if he doesn't play with superstar wingers every shift.

To me the biggest question here is Drai. Complete unknown. I don't think anyone would have predicted 2 years ago he'd be hitting ~130 points in a season, which is what he was pacing for. That's insane. Is it a fluke? Maybe he becomes a consistent 100 point guy, top ~5-10 scorer every year, but never again even approaches 115+. Or maybe he repeats, in which case he likely competes for the Ross and wins it again. I honestly don't know what to expect with him

I think those questions are very relevant. If he's given 2 legit fringe 2nd line wingers to play with and if he and his line mates more or less stay healthy I 100% believe that McDavid will win the Art Ross.

The reason nobody saw Drai's production coming is because NOBODY say it coming. Drai didn't see it coming. When he was drafted people were saying that we were drafting a future Selkie trophy candidate. He talked about how he modeled his game to be like Kopitar's.

When he first started playing with Taylor Hall you could see that he cared more about being good in all 3 zones but after Hall was traded away someone must have sat him down and told him that it's OK to want to be an offense first player. Then his offense just exploded.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

correct me if I'm wrong (I'm using hockey-reverence.com as a source) but Draisaitl had a 13.8 OIS% at 5v5 and a 24.8 OIS% on the PP this year.

If you normalize his percentages to what they were last year which were still even pretty high (more so at 5v5) it would put him at 83 points (95 point pace). Certainly elite production but not enough to consistently be amongst the art ross favorites IMO.

Its possibly that he could have a perfect storm of puck luck for another season but I wouldn't bank on it.

That’s what we heard last year. Unsustainable shooting percentages.

Draisaitl shooting percentage was 2% (roughly) lower than last year.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

That’s what we heard last year. Unsustainable shooting percentages.

Draisaitl shooting percentage was 2% (roughly) lower than last year.

A players OIS% is an overall shooting% of every player while that one particular player (Draisaitl) is on the ice it can be influenced by the individual (Draisaitl's shooting% is still very high I still believe that he'll still see some regression in that regard) but if often just as much if not more so influenced by players around that individual (Yamamoto having a 25% shooting %)

I personally don't find his numbers sustainable but I guess we will have to wait and see what comes next year.

 

[KevSkillz4]

Why it's considering steal if he is already THE WINNER????

#LOVEFORGERMANY

 

[KidLine93]

Sure but how many years removed for an Art Ross does McDavid have to be before he is not the "favorite" going into next season? I mean I could buy that he still is just not so sure.

Daver set the grace period for players at 5 years

 

[StoveTopStauffer]

I sure hope so!

 

[Conbon]

I abstain from making any predictions about Draisaitl. Hes made me feel stupid too many times

 

[gwh]

Very loaded title. I guess McDavid could win another one during his career, if he gets lucky.

 

[Varan]

Even before his injury, I thought McDavid was going to lose the Ross. This season only, Drai has been much more consistent than McDaddy and it’s clear that the runway is no longer clear for McDavid to win the Ross (or any award) easily like we all imagined a few years ago.

McDavid needs to show in the coming seasons why he is the favourite every year. Finishes are cool and everything but at the end of the day, results talk.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Well he seems more durable than McD so yes why not

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Yes. Not in a healthy year for both players, but if McDavid misses 5-10 games, I could see it.

What happened this year then?

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

What happened this year then?

McDavid missed six games?

 

[Skolman]

What happened this year then?

Uh....

 

[McVespa99]

Even before his injury, I thought McDavid was going to lose the Ross. This season only, Drai has been much more consistent than McDaddy and it’s clear that the runway is no longer clear for McDavid to win the Ross (or any award) easily like we all imagined a few years ago.

McDavid needs to show in the coming seasons why he is the favourite every year. Finishes are cool and everything but at the end of the day, results talk.

The thing is Drai is playing with 2 quality top 6 wingers. McD is playing with 0. If that continues Drai should beat McD in points every year. No player wins the Ross without his line mates putting up some decent numbers.

 

[CanadienShark]

What happened this year then?

Draisaitl played 7 games more.

 

[BertMcDrai]

Yes. Not in a healthy year for both players, but if McDavid misses 5-10 games, I could see it.

I know it's not likely that Drai outscores McD again but fact is he was a few points ahead of McD before he got injured...I am pretty confident Drai had won it even if McD wasn't injured.
That's what the higher ppg also shows you.
I think next year Panarin or McK will win the Art Ross.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Draisaitl played 7 games more.

Lol. Nope. Leon had a comfortable lead when mcdavid Got injured

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

McDavid missed six games?

Check the scoring race at the time of his injury

 

[CanadienShark]

Lol. Nope. Leon had a comfortable lead when mcdavid Got injured

Yes. It's a fact. Check their games played. Not hard.

 

[wetcoast]

Just as the thread states

Edit: As Connor McDavid is the perennial favourite to win the Art Ross, will Leon Draisaitl out score him and gain the crown of the NHL’s top scorer?

no because he didn't steal this one he earned it.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Draisaitl is a great player in his own right, he was leading the Oilers in scoring when McDavid was in the line up before being hurt and when McDavid came back. As posters have rightfully mentioned in this thread, he earned the Art Ross.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He could because he's obviously very good, but I wouldn't predict it'll happen.