Will Leon Draisaitl Steal Another Art Ross From Connor McDavid?

Will Leon Draisaitl Win another Art Ross


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    99
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GreeningOil

Yarpmeister
Jun 22, 2016
2,980
3,503
Saskatoon
Just as the thread states

Edit: As Connor McDavid is the perennial favourite to win the Art Ross, will Leon Draisaitl out score him and gain the crown of the NHL’s top scorer?
 
Last edited:

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,366
15,094
How is it stealing if he scores more points? It’s an objective trophy.

Everyone is being so sensitive over the word 'steal'. It's pretty clear what OP meant. Like it or not - McDavid is the perennial favorite for the Ross for the next few years, until proven otherwise.
 
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bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,366
15,094
I think Draisaitl will likely outscore Mcdavid at least one more time in their careers, but not convinced that means Draisaitl will win any more art rosses.

Injuries alone make it almost a certainty Drai outscores McDavid again at least once, and probably a cpl of times.

I'm tentatively going to vote no on the Ross though. I agree with you - no other Ross for Drai. But honestly - it's just a guess. He was impressive as hell this year, i have no idea what the future holds. I wouldn't be shocked if this turns out to be career year, and he settles into a ~90-100 point average, but maybe he comes back and does 120+ points for 3-5 next years instead.
 

nowhereman

Registered User
Jan 24, 2010
9,286
7,708
Los Angeles
Yes, of course it's possible. The thing with McDavid is that, although he's the best player in the league, his level of play isn't such that he's going to win an Art Ross/Hart every season. His consistency will have him in the running every season (and that's what makes him the best) but he's not good enough to consistently pull away from the field. This year Draisaitl beat him, the season before that it was Kucherov and the season prior to that, when he did win an Art Ross, Crosby had roughly the same PPG but missed time.

I think Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Crosby, Kucherov, Kane, Pastrnak, etc. and eventually guys like Pettersson and Matthews are all capable of putting up a big year and "stealing" a title from McDavid. It would be difficult for Draisaitl, since he plays on the same team and they share so many points but it's definitely a likely possibility.
 

Dion TheFluff

Registered User
Jun 22, 2015
3,901
3,352
correct me if I'm wrong (I'm using hockey-reverence.com as a source) but Draisaitl had a 13.8 OIS% at 5v5 and a 24.8 OIS% on the PP this year.

If you normalize his percentages to what they were last year which were still even pretty high (more so at 5v5) it would put him at 83 points (95 point pace). Certainly elite production but not enough to consistently be amongst the art ross favorites IMO.

Its possibly that he could have a perfect storm of puck luck for another season but I wouldn't bank on it.
 

Sidney the Kidney

One last time
Jun 29, 2009
55,786
46,884
What makes the McDavid's and Crosby's so great is that they're always in the top 3 while the other two seem to change every 2-4 years. Draisaitl is up there today. History says he won't be there tomorrow.

I think this above is exactly what separates McDavid/Crosby from other stars when talking about "best in the NHL". It's not that they'll necessarily win the Ross/Hart/Lindsay every single season, but that they'll either win it or be among the top 3-5 every year they're healthy. Most other players below them may win a Ross or two (or Hart or two), but likely won't finish top 3 in most other seasons.

On the flip side, I think that's what puts Gretzky/Lemieux ahead of the Crosby/McDavid tier. Barring injury/illness, they probably DO win the Ross every year.
 

psycat

Registered User
Oct 25, 2016
3,245
1,152
Sure but how many years removed for an Art Ross does McDavid have to be before he is not the "favorite" going into next season? I mean I could buy that he still is just not so sure.
 

Regal

Registered User
Mar 12, 2010
25,014
14,409
Vancouver
Sure but how many years removed for an Art Ross does McDavid have to be before he is not the "favorite" going into next season? I mean I could buy that he still is just not so sure.

Probably when he stops being 2nd to different players while being only slightly behind in PPG. He shouldn't be the favourite over the field but unless someone can actually be better over two seasons, it's pretty hard to put anyone specifically over him
 
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Luigi Lemieux

Registered User
Sep 26, 2003
21,581
9,484
Sure but how many years removed for an Art Ross does McDavid have to be before he is not the "favorite" going into next season? I mean I could buy that he still is just not so sure.
If he's consistently in the top 3 but the winners keep changing he'll continue being the favorite.
 
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thadd

Oil4Life
Jun 9, 2007
26,727
2,735
Canada
3 big questions:
Will McDavid stay healthy?
Will Edmonton be able to give McDavid quality wingers to play with at 5 on 5?
Will those wingers stay healthy?
 

Paul4587

Registered User
Jan 26, 2006
31,163
13,179
Probably, especially if they're separated with Draisaitl getting good linemates with McDavid having to play with bottom 6 forwards. Draisaitl was an absolute force this year but I wonder if he wins the Ross if the linemates for each were switched.
 

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,366
15,094
3 big questions:
Will McDavid stay healthy?
Will Edmonton be able to give McDavid quality wingers to play with at 5 on 5?
Will those wingers stay healthy?

I actually find all 3 questions mostly irrelevant to be honest.

Will McDavid stay healthy? I'm sure he'll have some injuries here and there. Even if in a year he misses ~20 games - Drai hasn't exactly established himself as the surefire #2 favorite to the Ross. He still has to compete with Mackinnon, Kucherov....guys like Matthews/Eichel and many more likely step up, etc. So even if McDavid gets injured some seasons and misses the ross - the bigger question of how likely Drai is to be the one in second place to take over and win the Ross remains.

Quality wingers. I'm not sure. Crosby/Malkin is the easiest comparable of course. Did Crosby have quality wingers in his career? For the most part, not really. I know he only won 2 rosses, but we all know he wins minimum 2 more without major/unlucky injuries, and maybe even more. McDavid is a comparable tier to Crosby for point production. I see no reason why he couldn't still produce a ton of points even if he doesn't play with superstar wingers every shift.

To me the biggest question here is Drai. Complete unknown. I don't think anyone would have predicted 2 years ago he'd be hitting ~130 points in a season, which is what he was pacing for. That's insane. Is it a fluke? Maybe he becomes a consistent 100 point guy, top ~5-10 scorer every year, but never again even approaches 115+. Or maybe he repeats, in which case he likely competes for the Ross and wins it again. I honestly don't know what to expect with him
 
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