Will Crosby catch Ovechkin in points by the end of the season?

Will Crosby catch Ovechkin in points by the end of the season?


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DitchMarner

It's time.
Jul 21, 2017
10,047
6,811
Brampton, ON
If he plays every remaining game, I won't be shocked if he does... but a 15 point deficit isn't easy to make up. I say he won't catch him this years unless Ovechkin gets hurt himself and misses more than a couple of games.
 

Thenameless

Registered User
Apr 29, 2014
3,855
1,788
I'll say no.

He's got a decent sized lead, and he's also the less injury prone of the two. He's on a mission to pass Gretzky, so those Howitzers from the slot are gonna keep comin'.
 
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AhosDatsyukian

Registered User
Sep 25, 2020
11,155
32,536
Zero chance if Ovechkin stays healthy. If Ovi misses 20+ games then maybe, but I'd be surprised if Crosby even plays the rest of the season himself.
 
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Mulletman

Registered User
Feb 23, 2013
3,997
3,831
Based on what? From 17/18-today, OV is at 1.06 PPG. 18/19-today 1.05 PPG. 19/20-today 1.02 PPG. 20/21-today 1.08 PPG. This season 1.88 PPG. How exactly is PPG a "tall task"?
Dude, small sample size. In the McDavid era Ovechkin only has a 0.99 point per game average. Which means Ovechkin will most likely put up 81 points if he plays all 82 games. Crosby on the other hand has a 1.14 point per game average in the Mcdavid era which would give him 84 points if he plays all 74 games...
 

Nathaniel Skywalker

Registered User
Oct 18, 2013
13,847
5,419
It's been 4 years since he went a full season under PPG, and that was his worst season ever. You are putting too much stock into the past 2 incomplete seasons where he was 1 game below PPG and injured for the next
He had 65 points in 78 games four years ago or was that 11-12 when he was 26?
 

filinski77

Registered User
Feb 12, 2017
2,622
4,304
Yup on the cusp of a ppg player. But at least it's not 65 points in 78 games 26 year old ov

He had 65 points in 78 games four years ago or was that 11-12 when he was 26?

So much salt.

The funniest part is that Ovi’s goal finish in that “terrible” season would have been the 3rd best of Sids career. So I guess it couldn’t have been that bad.
 

IvanMalison

Registered User
Feb 5, 2008
706
202
Portland, OR
Dude, small sample size. In the McDavid era Ovechkin only has a 0.99 point per game average. Which means Ovechkin will most likely put up 81 points if he plays all 82 games. Crosby on the other hand has a 1.14 point per game average in the Mcdavid era which would give him 84 points if he plays all 74 games...

Ovechkin has already played 8 games this season, and he has scored 15 points in those games. If you think this .99 ppg is a better predictor of what will happen in the rest of the season, fine, but at least do the math right:

Ovechkin has 74 games remaining. If he averages .99 ppg over those remaining 74 games, he will score 73 points in those games, so his season total will end up being 73 + 15 = 88 points.
 
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Regal

Registered User
Mar 12, 2010
25,128
14,539
Vancouver
Ovechkin has already played 8 games this season, and he has scored 15 points in those games. If you think this .99 ppg is a better predictor of what will happen in the rest of the season, fine, but at least do the math right:

Ovechkin has 74 games remaining. If he averages .99 ppg over those remaining 74 games, he will score 73 points in those games, so his season total will end up being 73 + 15 = 88 points.

Gambler’s fallacy doesn’t work for NHL totals. He’s still more likely to be at .99 for the season than .99 for the rest of the season
 
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IvanMalison

Registered User
Feb 5, 2008
706
202
Portland, OR
Gambler’s fallacy doesn’t work for NHL totals. He’s still more likely to be at .99 for the season than .99 for the rest of the season

What? you're so wrong its not even funny. You're just stating this without any justification and its simply wrong.

Want to bet that OV ends the season over 1ppg?
 

Regal

Registered User
Mar 12, 2010
25,128
14,539
Vancouver
What? you're so wrong its not even funny. You're just stating this without any justification and its simply wrong.

Want to bet that OV ends the season over 1ppg?

Gambler’s fallacy is based on the fact that the odds never change but Ovechkin’s odds of scoring are not fixed for each game. Scoring averages are based on what a player is likely to do over a large sample, which means that the larger sample (a full season) is more likely to be close than a smaller sample (the rest of the season). It would be one thing if we were far into the season but 8 games is nothing and no different than his usual hot streaks (he had 14 goals and 15 points in a 7 game sample in ‘20 and still finished one point back of point per game). People always think “the points are in the bag” early in the season and more often than not they’re wrong. If you were right, we would see the early scoring leaders frequently out score their averages every year, but we don’t.
 
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Peeri

Registered User
Jan 13, 2016
767
1,166
Western Finland
Gambler’s fallacy is based on the fact that the odds never change but Ovechkin’s odds of scoring are not fixed for each game. Scoring averages are based on what a player is likely to do over a large sample, which means that the larger sample (a full season) is more likely to be close than a smaller sample (the rest of the season). It would be one thing if we were far into the season but 8 games is nothing and no different than his usual hot streaks (he had 14 goals and 15 points in a 7 game sample in ‘20 and still finished one point back of point per game). People always think “the points are in the bag” early in the season and more often than not they’re wrong. If you were right, we would see the early scoring leaders frequently out score their averages every year, but we don’t.
I would agree with you, but OV this season has looked absolutely amazing, just like his center Kuznetsov. If they can keep playing together and creating chances the points will come. I dont follow advanced stats that much, but i'm confident that Capitals 1st line is high up there with the best.
 
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illpucks

Registered User
May 26, 2011
20,525
4,973
I would agree with you, but OV this season has looked absolutely amazing, just like his center Kuznetsov. If they can keep playing together and creating chances the points will come. I dont follow advanced stats that much, but i'm confident that Capitals 1st line is high up there with the best.
I have to wonder if all the magic ends when Backstrom returns to the lineup.
 
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Plural

Registered User
Mar 10, 2011
33,728
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Ovechkin will most likely end up somewhere near his previous totals. Most likely.

He might have a resurgence year, Selanne had. But the odds are, Ovechkin won't have one of his career best years as 36-year old.

Then again, odds and Ovechkin have never aligned.
 
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