Will Crosby catch Ovechkin in points by the end of the season?

[illpucks]

Ovi has 15 pts, Sid has 0. Sid is playing his first game tonight. Will he catch Ovi in points by end of the year?

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[Regal]

They both end up with 85

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Yes or he will be extremely close. A ppg is a tall task for Ovechkin even with this hot start

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Yes or he will be extremely close. A ppg is a tall task for Ovechkin even with this hot start

Based on what? From 17/18-today, OV is at 1.06 PPG. 18/19-today 1.05 PPG. 19/20-today 1.02 PPG. 20/21-today 1.08 PPG. This season 1.88 PPG. How exactly is PPG a "tall task"?

 

[DitchMarner]

If he plays every remaining game, I won't be shocked if he does... but a 15 point deficit isn't easy to make up. I say he won't catch him this years unless Ovechkin gets hurt himself and misses more than a couple of games.

 

[BillyOcean]

Who cares

 

[Varan]

Yes or he will be extremely close. A ppg is a tall task for Ovechkin even with this hot start

It's been 4 years since he went a full season under PPG, and that was his worst season ever. You are putting too much stock into the past 2 incomplete seasons where he was 1 game below PPG and injured for the next

 

[Thenameless]

I'll say no.

He's got a decent sized lead, and he's also the less injury prone of the two. He's on a mission to pass Gretzky, so those Howitzers from the slot are gonna keep comin'.

 

[Rengorlex]

No, but he will in career +/-

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Zero chance if Ovechkin stays healthy. If Ovi misses 20+ games then maybe, but I'd be surprised if Crosby even plays the rest of the season himself.

 

[Mulletman]

Based on what? From 17/18-today, OV is at 1.06 PPG. 18/19-today 1.05 PPG. 19/20-today 1.02 PPG. 20/21-today 1.08 PPG. This season 1.88 PPG. How exactly is PPG a "tall task"?

Dude, small sample size. In the McDavid era Ovechkin only has a 0.99 point per game average. Which means Ovechkin will most likely put up 81 points if he plays all 82 games. Crosby on the other hand has a 1.14 point per game average in the Mcdavid era which would give him 84 points if he plays all 74 games...

 

[bigbabybuda]

No, Ovechkin is the better player now and with the time he had off last 2 years I don't see that changing. He's just a stronger man. He probably the best pure athlet in the league.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If tonight is anything to go by, no.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Based on what? From 17/18-today, OV is at 1.06 PPG. 18/19-today 1.05 PPG. 19/20-today 1.02 PPG. 20/21-today 1.08 PPG. This season 1.88 PPG. How exactly is PPG a "tall task"?

Yup on the cusp of a ppg player. But at least it's not 65 points in 78 games 26 year old ov

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

It's been 4 years since he went a full season under PPG, and that was his worst season ever. You are putting too much stock into the past 2 incomplete seasons where he was 1 game below PPG and injured for the next

He had 65 points in 78 games four years ago or was that 11-12 when he was 26?

 

[Varan]

He had 65 points in 78 games four years ago or was that 11-12 when he was 26?

And that was how long ago? He’s not even remotely the same player.

He had 89 points in 81 games in 2019 when he was 33, but you conveniently forget about that

 

[filinski77]

Yup on the cusp of a ppg player. But at least it's not 65 points in 78 games 26 year old ov

He had 65 points in 78 games four years ago or was that 11-12 when he was 26?

So much salt.

The funniest part is that Ovi’s goal finish in that “terrible” season would have been the 3rd best of Sids career. So I guess it couldn’t have been that bad.

 

[IvanMalison]

Dude, small sample size. In the McDavid era Ovechkin only has a 0.99 point per game average. Which means Ovechkin will most likely put up 81 points if he plays all 82 games. Crosby on the other hand has a 1.14 point per game average in the Mcdavid era which would give him 84 points if he plays all 74 games...

Ovechkin has already played 8 games this season, and he has scored 15 points in those games. If you think this .99 ppg is a better predictor of what will happen in the rest of the season, fine, but at least do the math right:

Ovechkin has 74 games remaining. If he averages .99 ppg over those remaining 74 games, he will score 73 points in those games, so his season total will end up being 73 + 15 = 88 points.

 

[Regal]

Ovechkin has already played 8 games this season, and he has scored 15 points in those games. If you think this .99 ppg is a better predictor of what will happen in the rest of the season, fine, but at least do the math right:

Ovechkin has 74 games remaining. If he averages .99 ppg over those remaining 74 games, he will score 73 points in those games, so his season total will end up being 73 + 15 = 88 points.

Gambler’s fallacy doesn’t work for NHL totals. He’s still more likely to be at .99 for the season than .99 for the rest of the season

 

[IvanMalison]

Gambler’s fallacy doesn’t work for NHL totals. He’s still more likely to be at .99 for the season than .99 for the rest of the season

What? you're so wrong its not even funny. You're just stating this without any justification and its simply wrong.

Want to bet that OV ends the season over 1ppg?

 

[Cats2TheCup]

Since I voted Yes, you can bank on it happening.

 

[Regal]

What? you're so wrong its not even funny. You're just stating this without any justification and its simply wrong.

Want to bet that OV ends the season over 1ppg?

Gambler’s fallacy is based on the fact that the odds never change but Ovechkin’s odds of scoring are not fixed for each game. Scoring averages are based on what a player is likely to do over a large sample, which means that the larger sample (a full season) is more likely to be close than a smaller sample (the rest of the season). It would be one thing if we were far into the season but 8 games is nothing and no different than his usual hot streaks (he had 14 goals and 15 points in a 7 game sample in ‘20 and still finished one point back of point per game). People always think “the points are in the bag” early in the season and more often than not they’re wrong. If you were right, we would see the early scoring leaders frequently out score their averages every year, but we don’t.

 

[Peeri]

Gambler’s fallacy is based on the fact that the odds never change but Ovechkin’s odds of scoring are not fixed for each game. Scoring averages are based on what a player is likely to do over a large sample, which means that the larger sample (a full season) is more likely to be close than a smaller sample (the rest of the season). It would be one thing if we were far into the season but 8 games is nothing and no different than his usual hot streaks (he had 14 goals and 15 points in a 7 game sample in ‘20 and still finished one point back of point per game). People always think “the points are in the bag” early in the season and more often than not they’re wrong. If you were right, we would see the early scoring leaders frequently out score their averages every year, but we don’t.

I would agree with you, but OV this season has looked absolutely amazing, just like his center Kuznetsov. If they can keep playing together and creating chances the points will come. I dont follow advanced stats that much, but i'm confident that Capitals 1st line is high up there with the best.

 

[illpucks]

I would agree with you, but OV this season has looked absolutely amazing, just like his center Kuznetsov. If they can keep playing together and creating chances the points will come. I dont follow advanced stats that much, but i'm confident that Capitals 1st line is high up there with the best.

I have to wonder if all the magic ends when Backstrom returns to the lineup.

 

[Plural]

Ovechkin will most likely end up somewhere near his previous totals. Most likely.

He might have a resurgence year, Selanne had. But the odds are, Ovechkin won't have one of his career best years as 36-year old.

Then again, odds and Ovechkin have never aligned.