Player Discussion Will Brock Boeser be worth the contract he just signed?

[Petey But Really Jim]

I just want to see the Canucks win a Stanley Cup, then I can be happy as a pig in shit with falling in love with flawed players and valiant playoff chases for the rest of my days.

 

[MS]

In 2020-2021 Boeser crushed Miller's ES point total and Pettersson missed half the games, and was terrible in the ones he played in the second half of the season, which is when Boeser heated up and carried his line.

Almost everyone had a terrible year last year. If I based my expectation of future years on last year, I'd trade almost everyone tomorrow, I wasn't just being tongue in cheek about that I really meant it, if last year represents our team moving forward it's time to blow it up and go for Bedard. Outside of the 10 game new coach bounce most of the team sucked. There was no "entire team looks like they got sucked into a black hole" effect during Miller's 2019-2020 season. I don't expect Boeser to improve and hit new career highs, just to regress back to his 4 straight years of remarkably consistent ES production.

Miller is also a good example of why looking at even strength points is better than total output because PP opportunity is arbitrary and Miller didn't hit a career high in ES points that season, he matched it, and he'd already had two, maybe 3 years producing at ES IN NYR and TB like he did with us that season. It was a surprise that he became a consistent player when he came here and was able to scale his production in a larger role, which is why the narrative around him is that he "had a wake up call" and "finally figured out" what all his coaches had been trying to teach him in the past on consistency.

You've wanted Boeser gone for several years now and I think your reasons for it are valid, he's genuinely a frustrating player to watch. In hindsight you made the right call on that too because when you were advocating trading him back in 2020 he'd have gotten a lot more in return than he will now. I just don't understand latching on to last years production, I don't think it holds up and it's not necessary to support your arguments for wanting him gone. Pretty much the only thing you can't criticize about Boeser is his raw production.

Miller would have blown apart his career high in ES points that year if the season didn't end early.

People are acting like I'm not factoring in 20-21. I absolutely am. A lot. If I was only looking at 19-20 and 21-22 I would be saying that Boeser is a $2 million player we should have been firing out of a cannon. Instead I'm saying he's a $5 million player.

People are also acting like I'm thinking 21-22 will duplicate. I've said a lot of times that I expect a rebound of some sort. I just don't think he's worth the contract he's been given even with a rebound.

I hate how this team is built. It isn't built like a winning team. It's been consistently slow, soft, and easy to play against for the last 3 years. I think Boeser has been a passenger more often than not and I think he's the winger who should have been moved to push heavier, more effective ES players like Podkolzin into bigger roles and try to change our identity. We've been a country club and Boeser has basically been a really nice guy who doesn't try very hard. I think he's a very replaceable complementary scorer who is probably better than the horrific trainwreck liability we saw last year, but who even then isn't a terribly valuable asset.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I hate avatars. If you're right, I'll just gladly admit you're right. And I'll be happy about it because he plays for my team.

What you're saying *could* happen. Predicting how human beings react is damned difficult. But if you're thinking that a guy with a career high of 56 points coming off a career worst season has a most likely outcome next year of scoring 70+ points ... I could not disagree more. Hope is turning a possibility into a likelihood in your mind.

You are basing this on a season when his father was slipping away after bouts with cancer, a heart attack and Parkinson's onset dementia.
Explain to me how you are capable of ignoring this in your assessment? What logic is on your side here?

 

[mriswith]

Miller would have blown apart his career high in ES points that year if the season didn't end early.

People are acting like I'm not factoring in 20-21. I absolutely am. A lot. If I was only looking at 19-20 and 21-22 I would be saying that Boeser is a $2 million player we should have been firing out of a cannon. Instead I'm saying he's a $5 million player.

People are also acting like I'm thinking 21-22 will duplicate. I've said a lot of times that I expect a rebound of some sort. I just don't think he's worth the contract he's been given even with a rebound.

I hate how this team is built. It isn't built like a winning team. It's been consistently slow, soft, and easy to play against for the last 3 years. I think Boeser has been a passenger more often than not and I think he's the winger who should have been moved to push heavier, more effective ES players like Podkolzin into bigger roles and try to change our identity. We've been a country club and Boeser has basically been a really nice guy who doesn't try very hard. I think he's a very replaceable complementary scorer who is probably better than the horrific trainwreck liability we saw last year, but who even then isn't a terribly valuable asset.

Miller's ES/60 matched two previous years, three if you want to be generous, I mentioned that the surprise was the consistency and that it scaled to more minutes.

Boeser paced 49 ES points in 2018-2019 and then in 2020-2021 he paced 50 ES points, while carrying his line for half the season and didn't miss a game, that's why I didn't agree with your characterization of him getting carried to 60 points by his linemates and having to produce at a level he's never produced at before to be worth his contract. He wasn't getting carried in 2020-2021. He wasn't a 2 million dollar player in 19-20. He's a streaky winger, a hot/cold guy that weighs his line down when he's cold and carries it when he's hot. I don't think expecting him to continue pacing what he did 4 of his last 5 years is turning a possibility into a likelihood.

I'm not counting on him repeating his 2020-2021 performance, largely because he gets injured too much, partially because smaller sample sizes favour streaky players. At the same time, I don't think living up to this contract is unreasonable. I think your requirement of 60 points in Garlands usage to be worth the contract is too high. That's like 52-55 ES points and a top 40 player in the league, and probably higher than that when you consider how often Garland got shafted with his linemates. I think 40-45 ES points is more in line with the dollars, where you're hoping for 45-50 ES points to get surplus value but you end up with 40-45 and he's technically worth the money but you're perpetually a little underwhelmed given the lack of anything else that Boeser does and how frustrating he is to watch when he goes cold and drags his line down.

I don't know if he's lazy versus 10 pounds overweight with 5 years of poor coaching but the effect is the same. I also want a lot of turnover and I think about the alternate reality where Hog gets rewarded for his play at the start of last season with Boeser's ice time instead of getting benched for it and screwed around, and that's the kind of thing where I'm completely in agreement with trading Boeser asap. There's an invisible cap cost in the form of opportunity/development cost to letting players like Boeser do their thing on the 1st line in perpetuity, where Boeser can score 45 ES points and technically be worth his cap hit but still not be worth the opportunity/development cost and roster makeup cost of keeping him around. I'm going to be extremely irritated if Garland and/or Hog are stapled to the third line and the wheel of Dickinsons again this year. But if Boeser's value is still tanked from last year, then I'm confident that he'll resume his usual production next season and its worth pumping his ice time until someone like Nashville bites.

 

[Tomatoes11]

Kole Lind and Gadjovich?

The 2nd has value like money not value like a certain player. Imho

I agree with you that you have to look at value as currency, which we also lost hard on when we traded our 2nds. In every possible way we lost those trades because dim is an idiot.

That said I don’t see anything wrong with believing you can get good players with that currency. I mean you eventually have to spend the currency. I wasn’t singling out certain players.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I agree with you that you have to look at value as currency, which we also lost hard on when we traded our 2nds. In every possible way we lost those trades because dim is an idiot.

That said I don’t see anything wrong with believing you can get good players with that currency. I mean you eventually have to spend the currency. I wasn’t singling out certain players.

Fair enough.

I've just developed an allergy for "Oh we traded the 210th overall in -99 and missed Zetterberg what a horrid trade."

Not saying that is what you are doing here. Just like a nervous tic for me at this point I guess.

 

[MS]

You are basing this on a season when his father was slipping away after bouts with cancer, a heart attack and Parkinson's onset dementia.
Explain to me how you are capable of ignoring this in your assessment? What logic is on your side here?

No, I'm basing this off watching this player play 5 NHL seasons, constantly get hurt, and have an overall downward trend in his play through that time.

Again, I also thought he was poor in 19-20 and would have sold high on him at that point. The red flags have been here for a long time.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

No, I'm basing this off watching this player play 5 NHL seasons, constantly get hurt, and have an overall downward trend in his play through that time.

Again, I also thought he was poor in 19-20 and would have sold high on him at that point. The red flags have been here for a long time.

Fair fair.

Sorry. I dont know why I jumped in to this pool again.

In my own defence I had a 38,8 celsius fever at the time. My first bout with COVID finally came up.

 

[MarkMM]

On dollar amount I can see that Boeser will be worth the contract, but at the same time, I think he might be a better fit elsewhere and worth more to us in what he can return in a trade. But I think we're in a good position, if we hold on to him we should get good production, so I'd be open to trading him if we can get something Gucci especially a young, physical, reliable and talented RHD, and if not, we sit tight.

 

[ChilliBilly]

I voted yes, on the assumption that we could probably get a decent haul for him if we retain some salary. I am hoping his shot get used this season. Its his biggest asset. I think he's really a $5 M player, but what else could they do after that last contract.

 

[orcatown]

I think the Boeser situation raises an issue that has plagued the team for years. Basically, a lot of moves, and the fan reaction to these moves as expressed on boards like this, has been made on wishful thinking.

For example, the team spend years hoping Virtanen was going to develop when it was clear he had no game sense. And far too many people allowed some brief scoring flurries to cloud their judgment to that reality. A decent organization would have cut their ties with this player far sooner. I, among others, wanted him gone years ago but the team, based somewhat on Benning's silly intent to prove himself right, clung too the belief that this player had a future.

Same thing with Joulevi. From the beginning he illustrated he had immense skating issues (like no ability to pivot) and significant problems between the ears. But the team and fans stuck with the belief that injuries or poor coaching were the only things holding him back. I can remember on some boards people saying that he was a solid top 4 candidate and oohing and aahing over some ordinary pass Joulevi made, right up to the time he was dealt.

Could say the same about any number of players. The attempt by the team to avoid fessing up to obvious mistakes and the inability of many fans to get beyond wishful thinking has crippled the team in terms of dealing with reality.

Will admit that situation with Boeser is a more murky since he has had some periods of good play. Yet, I doubt he has ever looked the player he was during his rookie year and since the idiot Virtanen left the gate open.
There have been some periods of good play but these have constantly been ended by injuries. Like last year when he looked good early in camp but then got hurt - and that was likely a groin which seems to have plagued him for years and may be chronic.

This frequency of injury and the absolutely dreadful play of last year should give anyone pause about re-signing Boeser at the price we have. Instead, people assert with complete conviction that he will bounce back and score like 40 goals. You really have to ask based on what? And beyond that, even if he does score some, does that compensate for his consistently poor play in other areas?

Others insist he is now more tradeable. But that's no certainty. I doubt anyone takes Boeser on his present deall (given his present play and injury history) . It's a gamble and the senseable approach would be first to see if he can get his offensive game back together. Really his trade value is going to be based on what he does going forward. If it is continuation of his present game, he is likely untradeable.

In the end, as I said before, it comes down to which is more valuable: Boeser or 6.6 in cap space.

Right now I would say the cap space b/c our biggest problems lie elsewhere. Maybe you have to let Boeser walk for nothing. That should be mainly laid at the feet of the bungling stupidity of Benning. But compounding the problem by overpaying Boeser is not the answer either.

I hope I am wrong and would love to eat crow, But I believe using present evidence and a dose of realism (and Lord knows this team and our society needs some of that now) makes this Boeser deal a mistake.

 

[tantalum]

I’ll be honest, the situation with this team has been so f***ed up for so long that to me everyone gets a blank slate that begins to be filled in on opening night.

That said veteran players will have info filled I a lot quicker than younger guys. Boeser is a vet so he does need to show up from the get go at both ends of the rink.

But for now I’m back to wait and see on this player. I don’t think the Contract is bad nor is it great. It’s fair and as such it’s moveable. So let’s see what happens.

 

[Kryten]

Voted yes but that is mainly because its only for 3 years. The league gets faster every year and Brock and many of our players havent. In my mind he isnt worth more than what he was already getting. Getting his wrist shots off are like watching Edler wind up and Im hoping he gets traded at some point during this contract. I do love him as a person though. If he gets 30-30 every year then its worth it I guess

 

[tyhee]

What are the alternatives though? Can't let him walk for nothing, and he likely wasn't going to get a good value in a trade...he's not worth what he got paid but ...

This seems to dwell on something other than the question posted, though. The question is whether Brock Boeser will be worth the contract he signed. It isn't whether there were alternatives to paying him, nor whether it is his fault that he isn't worth what he got paid.

I voted no, looking for one of the possible answers to be "of course not." To me the best hope with any reasonable degree of likelihood isn't that he'll outplay his contract, but that he'll play up to that value for some period of time, maybe even exceed it for a little while, but the likelihood of him being healthy and sustaining play at a level we haven't seen his his rookie season imo has to be considered low.

That doesn't mean that I have a problem with Management having signed the deal, but people aren't going to much like my reason for that.

We were getting reports that there were offers for Boeser before this signing. They may not have been good ones, but the fact that there were offers at all suggests he has a reputation that made him worth something on the trade market.

To those general managers that were willing to offer something, I don't think his value has gone down with his being signed. He's now under contract for a fixed amount (cost certainty) at a level closer to the minimum arbitration award than the qualifying offer, with an ufa year on top of it. Most of those willing to pay something before will probably be willing to pay a little more now.

If we think he isn't going to provide value for the deal he's got, he should be traded. If the plan is to trade him and use that $6.65 million a season on other assets that Management judges will provide $6.65 million per season of value, the team should come out ahead by getting some sort of asset for trading Boeser and get the use of that cap space for other assets they may judge to be more valuable.

If a player isn't worth his salary then logically it would seem to be a losing proposition to sign him, but assuming the Canucks were getting some sort of offers before and have reason to think his value under contract will be higher, I can see signing him. I could even see the team keeping him for some time before trading him in the expectation his production will rebound at least somewhat and increase his value, but that can be a dangerous game since the real disaster would come if the Canucks keep Boeser and his downward trend continues. People will differ about whether that is likely or not, but it isn't an impossible scenario.

I think signing him with the intention of keeping him for the entirety of his contract would be a mistake.

 

[F A N]

Voted no. Hope I'm wrong. I just feel that Boeser has lost a step where something is just off. Kind of like how Naslund was in his last couple of years here.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I think the Boeser situation raises an issue that has plagued the team for years. Basically, a lot of moves, and the fan reaction to these moves as expressed on boards like this, has been made on wishful thinking.

For example, the team spend years hoping Virtanen was going to develop when it was clear he had no game sense. And far too many people allowed some brief scoring flurries to cloud their judgment to that reality. A decent organization would have cut their ties with this player far sooner. I, among others, wanted him gone years ago but the team, based somewhat on Benning's silly intent to prove himself right, clung too the belief that this player had a future.

Same thing with Joulevi. From the beginning he illustrated he had immense skating issues (like no ability to pivot) and significant problems between the ears. But the team and fans stuck with the belief that injuries or poor coaching were the only things holding him back. I can remember on some boards people saying that he was a solid top 4 candidate and oohing and aahing over some ordinary pass Joulevi made, right up to the time he was dealt.

Could say the same about any number of players. The attempt by the team to avoid fessing up to obvious mistakes and the inability of many fans to get beyond wishful thinking has crippled the team in terms of dealing with reality.

Will admit that situation with Boeser is a more murky since he has had some periods of good play. Yet, I doubt he has ever looked the player he was during his rookie year and since the idiot Virtanen left the gate open.
There have been some periods of good play but these have constantly been ended by injuries. Like last year when he looked good early in camp but then got hurt - and that was likely a groin which seems to have plagued him for years and may be chronic.

This frequency of injury and the absolutely dreadful play of last year should give anyone pause about re-signing Boeser at the price we have. Instead, people assert with complete conviction that he will bounce back and score like 40 goals. You really have to ask based on what? And beyond that, even if he does score some, does that compensate for his consistently poor play in other areas?

Others insist he is now more tradeable. But that's no certainty. I doubt anyone takes Boeser on his present deall (given his present play and injury history) . It's a gamble and the senseable approach would be first to see if he can get his offensive game back together. Really his trade value is going to be based on what he does going forward. If it is continuation of his present game, he is likely untradeable.

In the end, as I said before, it comes down to which is more valuable: Boeser or 6.6 in cap space.

Right now I would say the cap space b/c our biggest problems lie elsewhere. Maybe you have to let Boeser walk for nothing. That should be mainly laid at the feet of the bungling stupidity of Benning. But compounding the problem by overpaying Boeser is not the answer either.

I hope I am wrong and would love to eat crow, But I believe using present evidence and a dose of realism (and Lord knows this team and our society needs some of that now) makes this Boeser deal a mistake.

By how much is Boeser overpaid? In your opinion.

 

[Cornwallace]

Boeser has the 14th most points for RW's in the NHL since he entered the league full time in 17/18. He's also the 7th highest goalscorer for RW's over the time as well.

He's 14th/7th despite all his ups/downs and missed time due to injury.

A lot of the critiques on him about his game outside of the offensive zone and his ability to stay healthy are totally valid. He's a player with flaws, but he's also a player that produces offense at a rate that not many players are capable of.

With his family issues being mostly dealt with and proper usage, I don't think it's much of a stretch for Boeser to be worth the deal he signed. That being said he needs to prove he can actually stay healthy over a full NHL schedule.

 

[Canucker]

This seems to dwell on something other than the question posted, though. The question is whether Brock Boeser will be worth the contract he signed. It isn't whether there were alternatives to paying him, nor whether it is his fault that he isn't worth what he got paid.

I voted no, looking for one of the possible answers to be "of course not." To me the best hope with any reasonable degree of likelihood isn't that he'll outplay his contract, but that he'll play up to that value for some period of time, maybe even exceed it for a little while, but the likelihood of him being healthy and sustaining play at a level we haven't seen his his rookie season imo has to be considered low.

That doesn't mean that I have a problem with Management having signed the deal, but people aren't going to much like my reason for that.

We were getting reports that there were offers for Boeser before this signing. They may not have been good ones, but the fact that there were offers at all suggests he has a reputation that made him worth something on the trade market.

To those general managers that were willing to offer something, I don't think his value has gone down with his being signed. He's now under contract for a fixed amount (cost certainty) at a level closer to the minimum arbitration award than the qualifying offer, with an ufa year on top of it. Most of those willing to pay something before will probably be willing to pay a little more now.

If we think he isn't going to provide value for the deal he's got, he should be traded. If the plan is to trade him and use that $6.65 million a season on other assets that Management judges will provide $6.65 million per season of value, the team should come out ahead by getting some sort of asset for trading Boeser and get the use of that cap space for other assets they may judge to be more valuable.

If a player isn't worth his salary then logically it would seem to be a losing proposition to sign him, but assuming the Canucks were getting some sort of offers before and have reason to think his value under contract will be higher, I can see signing him. I could even see the team keeping him for some time before trading him in the expectation his production will rebound at least somewhat and increase his value, but that can be a dangerous game since the real disaster would come if the Canucks keep Boeser and his downward trend continues. People will differ about whether that is likely or not, but it isn't an impossible scenario.

I think signing him with the intention of keeping him for the entirety of his contract would be a mistake.

I'm not "dwelling" on it, I voted "no", overall I don't think he's going to be worth $6.65m/year, but I'm happy they signed him rather than letting him walk, or taking a substandard return in a trade...I think he CAN be worth that amount if he has a career year...and I believe he can have a career year provided he stays healthy...and if he does have that healthy, career season he should be traded, because it takes a career season for him to come close to having $6.65m/year in value.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

If he was just a little bit better of a physical specimen - a little quicker, a little stronger, a little more of a motor - he'd be exponentially better and that player is what we were all hoping for. You wonder if we had a real front office, a nhl level coach and a real support system for him in the offseasons during his developmental years if he could have become that, but at this point he is what he is.

this is the tragedy of boeser. a tremendously skilled player with zero fundamentals and a million bad habits.

but he also is an extremely streaky goal scorer who when on has an elite shot still. i don’t know if he still has a rookie boeser shot, but given time and space, and when he plays on feel and instinct, he can still beat goalies clean like few guys in the league.

my hope is that with miller gone, boesr stops having to play in front of the net and in the corners on the pp and takes back the shooter spot on the left side. and if they start the year running plays for him and he gets in a groove, that confidence comes back and he starts firing the puck off the rush without even thinking again, instead of messing up eight out of ten plays by hesitating about what the right play is. and then he starts contributing beyond his own pt totals by opening things up for petey and others.

is that a $6.5 million player, given that we are buying out a UFA year? well he’s not a $6.5 million player on tampa or colorado, but i don’t think that’s the goalpost here.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

We need to give him a break for last season. His head was clearly not in the right place.

Now, if he again fails to perform, it's an issue. Brock is not complete player by any stretch - he's actually a defensive liability (at least when it comes to the eye test). He's constantly out of the play and on the perimeter vs. his rookie season when he was all over the ice creating opportunities.

I would say he's basically Bobby Ryan - solid top 6 piece in his prime, but not someone you lean on in Game 7.

 

[VanJack]

Voted 'no', but primarily because of the injury bug. I'm starting to get 'Brandon Sutter' vibes from this player.

Frankly I'm a little surprised the Canucks re-upped him. But I suppose his value on the trade market had slumped so badly, that it was worth the risk of a three-year agreement to bring him back.

 

[Hit the post]

Voted no. Hope I'm wrong. I just feel that Boeser has lost a step where something is just off. Kind of like how Naslund was in his last couple of years here.

Naslund got a little help from Moore there (became more of a "perimeter player" after that elbow....I mean, not that he barreled his way thru the opposing defense before but it did seem to effect the areas of the ice he avoided)

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Naslund got a little help from Moore there (became more of a "perimeter player" after that elbow....I mean, not that he barreled his way thru the opposing defense before but it did seem to effect the areas of the ice he avoided)

Bone chips in his elbow from the hit took away his wrister too.

 

[arttk]

willing to bet that by this time next year, Boeser is going to be traded. It’s not that hard for him to hit 60ish points next year especially having the weight of his fathers illness off his shoulders. A 60ish point Boeser with 2 years left on a contract should get us a pretty good return. I won’t be surprised if they try to put him in a prime position to get points next season so we can juice up his production and use him to get us a top4D.

 

[orcatown]

By how much is Boeser overpaid? In your opinion.

Think about 2 mil. Would see him no better than someone like Brandon Saad and he gets 4.5

Look at their records and they are much the same

Saad (without much PP)

Brandon Saad Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Statistics of Brandon Saad, a hockey player from Pittsburgh, PA born Oct 27 1992 who was active from 2008 to 2024.

www.hockeydb.com

Boeser (lots of PP)

Brock Boeser Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Statistics of Brock Boeser, a hockey player from Burnsville, MN born Feb 25 1997 who was active from 2013 to 2024.

www.hockeydb.com

Neither is great defensively but could make a case Saad is actually better

Also, have to recognize that above includes some of Boeser's better years. Just off last year could say he deserves even less.