Why underdogs do better in icehockey than Basketball

[me2]

If we would determine a hockey game result in shots on goal, then it would be more equal to basketball.

Basketball is basicly shooting on the empty net.

If you team has a 55% chance of scoring, in a game of first score you will win 55% of the time. Best of 9 you win 62.1%. Best of 99, 84.1%.

Lower the goals the greater chance for the underdog, hockey is fairly low scoring with a lot of random goals.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

- There are fewer players in a basketball game. 5 on the court at any given time, vs 6 for hockey. Golf and tennis where it's 1v1 is where skill and talent shine through the most

- Fewer players overall, there's like a handful of bench players that might see some time vs 4 lines and 3 D pairings..again more players and noise to drown out indivual talent

-Nature of the game. In basketball you can't breathe on someone without getting called for a foul. You can walk the ball to attack zone and setup plays. imagine in hockey if you couldn't forecheck or make it hard to exit the zone for the other team and could just setup in the attack zone at will.

 

[Aurinko]

Winning a hockey game isn't just the skill of managing 5 players running back and forth... it's the skill of managing about 21 players in 3v3,4v4, PK, PP, 5v5, 4v5, 5v4, 5v3, with no goalie, shootout etc. situations.

I don't see it as luck, I see it just more complex. Defining luck based on win% is just a quick shortcut to avoid talking about the real complexity of the variables.