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Why playoffs are a very real possibility

GRadio

GRadio

Energy Line
Aug 16, 2014
393
197
Edmonton
With the new NHL division system, there is an increased importance on divisional games. The way the Pacific division and Western Conference are looking right now means that to get into the playoffs, the Oilers will need to be top 3 in the Pacific division. I'm not even going to include wild card spots because of the current strength of the Central division, it could almost be harder.

In the Pacific, I see it as a 4 team race for 3 spots. Calgary, Phoenix, and Anaheim are effectively non-issues, so the race is looking to be LA, San Jose, Vancouver and Edmonton fighting for the top 3 spots in the Pacific.

Essentially all we need to do to get into the post season is win all the season series against our divisional rivals (one reason the Flames made it last year is because they dominated us so bad). All the games we have lost so far have been to teams in other divisions, or other conferences, and are thus very minimal in damage to the standings. As it stands right now we are up 1-0 on Vancouver, and split 1-1 with Calgary (should be 2-0, but at the same time, they are definitely finishing below us so I'm not to worried about it).

If we win every series against our divisonal rivals, we're in. And luckily Todd McLellan is a California coach, and knows how to beat teams in this division because he has played against them so often.

I think we have a real shot at this, boys.
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BoldNewLettuce

BoldNewLettuce

Esquire
Dec 21, 2008
28,125
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Canada
I agree it looks like we have a better shot than in years past.

The jury is still out on whether we can pull it together in time to actually get into a race though.

Goaltending is improved but maybe not enough.....defense is struggling to really make an impact on wins.....but the coaching seems to be noticeably better so far and McDavid is a real wild card to turn the tables in any game.

It does seem fairly close....but the season could go either way at this point.
 
GRadio

GRadio

Energy Line
Aug 16, 2014
393
197
Edmonton
Yeah, but ignoring the out-of-divison losses, we are effectively 3-0 against our division, which is what really matters (we all know how that Calgary game was going to end in OT).
 
GRadio

GRadio

Energy Line
Aug 16, 2014
393
197
Edmonton
As far as I can see, there are 30 in-divison games and 53 out-of-divison (32 of which are east). I think we can easily do over .500 against the east (pretty sure we did last season too), maybe around .600-.700 and if we can go .500 against the central, we're in as long as we win the series against our rivals. And lets not forget, other teams in our division will also be dominated by the likes of St Louis, Nashville, Washington and other strong teams in the league. I think its gonna be close.
 

White Water Kayker

Registered User
Nov 28, 2014
382
0
I hope you're right, but I really don't see it with the D we have atm, nobody decent on the dot, and having to rely on McDavid to the level we do, as well as Nurse and Leon. Too young to get away with that consistently enough to pull off what you're hoping for. There's always a first time, but I don't think this is it.

I'm just hoping there are some meaningful games later in the year so these guys can play hard through the season, gain experience.
 
McIce Whole

McIce Whole

Registered User
Jan 7, 2008
6,402
1,329
Edmonton
As bad as Calgary has been, they are one point behind us in the same amount of games played. If you're going to count them out, then we aren't too far behind either. Also, it just seems unlikely Anaheim will be this bad. Things will start to balance out. With this defence, we won't be making playoffs this year. Nurse, Reinhart and Klef need to keep developing before we can breakout.

As of today, I would pick LA, Vancouver and Anaheim making the playoffs. As bad as the Ducks have been, it's hard going against them. I still think they have enough time to turn things around.
 
Joey Moss

Joey Moss

Registered User
Aug 29, 2008
36,161
8,004
The playoffs are not a real possibility right now because the players don't want to make the playoffs. The effort level this team shows is way too inconsistent, and they're still making the same mistakes they made two years ago. Defense is an absolute mess, PP is not nearly as good as the stats show the last few games.

Prove me wrong Oilers. Hopefully Eberle coming back will be a major boost, and Ference disappears. And to say Anaheim is done is pretty ridiculous. They're two points behind us with a game in hand, and are clearly a better team than us. We should be worried about San Jose and Vancouver because it's going to be one of those teams we'd have to beat out.
 
nexttothemoon

nexttothemoon

and again...
Jan 30, 2010
29,601
16,873
Northern AB
I predicted by Nov 1st that the Oilers would have 9 pts and 8th place in the West would have 14 pts... and that 5 pt spread would effectively have them out of the wildcard chase as they'd need ~85 pts in their final 70 games to capture a wildcard spot (if it takes ~95 pts to make it again).

Oilers have 8 pts... 8th place has 12 pts... so there's a 4 point spread (and 8th place has a game in hand).

It's likely effectively over unless they go on quite a tear the rest of the way.. not impossible but improbable from what we've seen so far.


The "wildcard" though is trades. I don't think Chiarelli is going to sit there for 82 games and watch this defensive ****show and treat this season like a MacT "development season". I think he makes some moves soon (likely before game 20) to help shape this team with a) some better defense and b) some more grit.
 
thadd

thadd

Oil4Life
Jun 9, 2007
26,720
2,719
Canada
nexttothemoon said:
The "wildcard" though is trades. I don't think Chiarelli is going to sit there for 82 games and watch this defensive ****show and treat this season like a MacT "development season". I think he makes some moves soon (likely before game 20) to help shape this team with a) some better defense and b) some more grit.
Click to expand...

This is the only thing that matters to me at this point and I'm really curious as to how long PC will wait. I'm thinking that he's waiting for some guys to come back from injuries.
Another big one for me is WHO is on his list of tradable players.
After watching him trade Kessel and Seguin out of Boston it really has me thinking that he could do anything short of trading McDavid if he was ready to make a trade.
 
Broilers

Broilers

Registered User
May 31, 2007
1,504
64
Bakersfield
Guerrilla Radio said:
With the new NHL division system, there is an increased importance on divisional games. The way the Pacific division and Western Conference are looking right now means that to get into the playoffs, the Oilers will need to be top 3 in the Pacific division. I'm not even going to include wild card spots because of the current strength of the Central division, it could almost be harder.

In the Pacific, I see it as a 4 team race for 3 spots. Calgary, Phoenix, and Anaheim are effectively non-issues, so the race is looking to be LA, San Jose, Vancouver and Edmonton fighting for the top 3 spots in the Pacific.

Essentially all we need to do to get into the post season is win all the season series against our divisional rivals (one reason the Flames made it last year is because they dominated us so bad). All the games we have lost so far have been to teams in other divisions, or other conferences, and are thus very minimal in damage to the standings. As it stands right now we are up 1-0 on Vancouver, and split 1-1 with Calgary (should be 2-0, but at the same time, they are definitely finishing below us so I'm not to worried about it).

If we win every series against our divisonal rivals, we're in. And luckily Todd McLellan is a California coach, and knows how to beat teams in this division because he has played against them so often.

I think we have a real shot at this, boys.
Click to expand...

Do not count Ducks out. They will come back
 
KCC

KCC

Registered User
Aug 15, 2007
18,414
9,385
Broilers said:
Do not count Ducks out. They will come back
Click to expand...

Exactly. With the exception of the odd game, they've played hard and deserved to win quite a few games. But as we all know they just couldn't score. Pot a bunch and they could easily be at the top of the division by now. Despite their record they will turn it around. Guaranteed. And I still think they will win it all this year.
 
HugginThePost

HugginThePost

Flames Suck
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Dec 28, 2006
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Wait....what?

The Oilers are 1 point ahead of the Flames and by your logic actually won the game on Saturday, sitting 3-0 against division rivals, so we can obviously count them out.

There is a lot of assuming going on here, the biggest being that the Ducks are out of contention.
 
Aceboogie

Aceboogie

Registered User
Aug 25, 2012
32,649
3,896
Kinda sucks because this year is wide open in Pacific due to Anahiems weird horrible start and no team really grabbing the division by the throat. However playoffs are unlikely. Sharks and LA will pull ahead and grab the 2 spots. Then Vancouver will be solid and always ahead of us

Finally Ducks are only 2 points behind despite this historically bad start. I would put all my money on them to improve way more than Oilers/Flames. I could see them grab the 3rd spot or battle with Vancouver for it

In a ideal situation the Oilers goal vs LA woulda counted and we would win in OT, and Calgarys last goal doesnt go in and we win in OT. Wed be 2 points out, tied for 2nd

However playoffs are still a pipe dream
 
Beerfish

Beerfish

Registered User
Apr 14, 2007
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