News Article: Why Phil Kessel is One of the NHL’s Most Consistent Players

[cack]

Umm...

The sheer volume of goals scored against them when they are on the ice...obviously.

Relative to other lines on the Leafs, and other first lines across the league with equal or lesser goaltending.

Did all of those other teams employ the same system as the Leafs? What about the rest of their depth or what stage of development those teams are at. Did any of those teams have a Bergeron or Kopitar on their first line?

Could you post your complete findings, there are a lot of important variables that you have left out.

 

[cack]

No that is not what I'm saying at all...

I'm saying they've kept the same players that play the same way

Guys like Kessel, Bozak, Kadri, JVR, Gardiner, Rielly, Lupul, etc. are the problem with regards to team defence.

I don't know what kind of magic powers you think coaches have but regardless of who they are, they can't magically transform these ballerinas into rugged, defensive minded players.

Read and comprehend.

They have also turned over many players from 2011-2014 under Wilson and Carlyle.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000382012.html

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000382014.html


Perhaps it was those players that were the problem?

 

[EastVan]

No that is not what I'm saying at all...

I'm saying they've kept the same players that play the same way

Guys like Kessel, Bozak, Kadri, JVR, Gardiner, Rielly, Lupul, etc. are the problem with regards to team defence.

I don't know what kind of magic powers you think coaches have but regardless of who they are, they can't magically transform these ballerinas into rugged, defensive minded players.

Read and comprehend.

Some of the players that you listed are still developing.

For example guys like JVR, Kadri and Rielly could all turn out to be fairly solid two way players if things go right for them.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

So basically under this framework you suggest that Kessel had a direct impact on the goals scored for when he's on the ice...but we simply cannot speculate on how much of an impact he had on the goals scored against us when he's on the ice.

That's a completely ridiculous, unfair, and inherently biased way to analyze statistics.

"He impacted those stats that look good on him, but not the one's that make him look bad"

This is the real world pal. Results are what matter. And you don't get to pick and choose the results you want.

Kessel's line just doesn't get the job done at the other end of the rink. And for anyone with two eyes, brain, and all their chromosomes in check....it's pretty plain to see Kessel is the weakest defensively not just on his line but the team. So he's an anchor to his line's ability to defend.

It's about time you acknowledge this after YEARS of defending Kessel/Burke's each and every bowel movement.

Uh yeah, I'm pretty certain we can easily establish which goals for he had a direct impact on. If you can't piece that together, no need in pursuing this any further because you are woefully unarmed.

If you want to discuss which goals against he directly influenced, go back and review the goals against he was on the ice for and tell me which were his fault and then we'll have an intelligent discussion. Part two of your homework is explaining his Boston results.

Put up or shut up.

 

[The Apologist]

I don't know about the rest of you, but by looking at NHL.com, at least PPG wise, over the last four seasons Phil Kessel seems to be very consistent month to month. He does tend to love October, and seems to have one really bad month in him every year, but looking into the top twenty NHL scorers over the past 5 seasons, Sid seems to be the only exception to the rule. Im not sure what happened to Phil last season but it was definitely the outlier as Phil normally puts up big points in the spring (jan-apr)

2010-11
o: .9ppg
n: .4ppg
d: .7ppg
j: .85
f: .93
m: .87
a:1

2011-12
o: 1.6
n: 1
d: .92
j: .6
f: 1.21
m: .7
a: .75

2012-13
j:.58
f: .8
m: 1.3
a: 1.5

2013-14
o: 1.3
n: .5
d: .93
j: 1.3
f: 1.5
m: .67
a: .5

As for the PPG in wins vs losses, the only player in the top ten where this doesn't appear to be the case is Tyler Seguin, who seems to score whether the team wins or loses (or rather they win or lose regardless of his contributions)

As an aside, I would be interested in seeing what our secondary scoring looks like during the highs and lows.

 

[leafstilldeath*]

I don't know about the rest of you, but by looking at NHL.com, at least PPG wise, over the last four seasons Phil Kessel seems to be very consistent month to month. He does tend to love October, and seems to have one really bad month in him every year, but looking into the top twenty NHL scorers over the past 5 seasons, Sid seems to be the only exception to the rule. Im not sure what happened to Phil last season but it was definitely the outlier as Phil normally puts up big points in the spring (jan-apr)

2010-11
o: .9ppg
n: .4ppg
d: .7ppg
j: .85
f: .93
m: .87
a:1

2011-12
o: 1.6
n: 1
d: .92
j: .6
f: 1.21
m: .7
a: .75

2012-13
j:.58
f: .8
m: 1.3
a: 1.5

2013-14
o: 1.3
n: .5
d: .93
j: 1.3
f: 1.5
m: .67
a: .5

As for the PPG in wins vs losses, the only player in the top ten where this doesn't appear to be the case is Tyler Seguin, who seems to score whether the team wins or loses (or rather they win or lose regardless of his contributions)

As an aside, I would be interested in seeing what our secondary scoring looks like during the highs and lows.

thats good work man. but it will also be helpful to see the teams we played during those months, that teams GA avg/month, and that teams GF avg/month

FYI: march and april of this season Kessel was only 0.67 and 0.5 ppg eh. Did Kadri center Kessel in March and April of this year?

 

[ULF_55]

I think Kessel is developing nicely and if we disregard the transaction I'm quite happy with him.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats....SALL&sort=teamGoalsAgainst&viewName=plusMinus

Defensively he's weak, physically he's weak, he will bail on a play but he does care about winning.

Goals Against Worst 10 for Leafs

1 Dion Phaneuf 101
2 Cody Franson 89
3 James van Riemsdyk 87
4 Phil Kessel 82
5 Carl Gunnarsson 78
6 Jay McClement 71
7 Tyler Bozak 69
8 Mason Raymond 66
9 Morgan Rielly 64
10 Nazem Kadri 61


Trying to outscore their problems.

In some cases that is understandable, but if you aren't facing the best or playing PK perhaps you are one of the problems here.

 

[Mess]

I think Kessel is developing nicely and if we disregard the transaction I'm quite happy with him.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats....SALL&sort=teamGoalsAgainst&viewName=plusMinus

Defensively he's weak, physically he's weak, he will bail on a play but he does care about winning.

Goals Against Worst 10 for Leafs

1 Dion Phaneuf 101
2 Cody Franson 89
3 James van Riemsdyk 87
4 Phil Kessel 82
5 Carl Gunnarsson 78
6 Jay McClement 71
7 Tyler Bozak 69
8 Mason Raymond 66
9 Morgan Rielly 64
10 Nazem Kadri 61


Trying to outscore their problems.

In some cases that is understandable, but if you aren't facing the best or playing PK perhaps you are one of the problems here.

The difference between Kessel and players like Phaneuf and Gunnarsson is that there is large majority of PK goals against in their totals.

Phaneuf ......... 101 Total GA - 31 PP GA = 71 ES goals against
Gunnarsson .... 78 Total GA - 29 PP GA = 49 ES goals against
Kessel ............. 82 Total GA - 0 PP GA = 82 ES goals against
JVR ................. 87 Total GA - 5 PP GA = 82 ES goals against

etc.

Players with high goals against without being on the penalty kill have higher impact on the team as ES time = 85% of the time.

If Leafs top line could cut their ES goals against by 20 then the team could see some improvement in the standings.

 

[ULF_55]

The difference between Kessel and players like Phaneuf and Gunnarsson is that there is large majority of PK goals against in their totals.

Phaneuf ......... 101 Total GA - 31 PP GA = 71 ES goals against
Gunnarsson .... 78 Total GA - 29 PP GA = 49 ES goals against
Kessel ............. 82 Total GA - 0 PP GA = 82 ES goals against
JVR ................. 87 Total GA - 5 PP GA = 82 ES goals against

etc.

Players with high goals against without being on the penalty kill have higher impact on the team as ES time = 85% of the time.

If Leafs top line could gut their ES goals against by 20 then the team could see some improvement in the standings.

Good thing Kessel has improved in that area!

He does one thing well, put up points.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I think Kessel is developing nicely and if we disregard the transaction I'm quite happy with him.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats....SALL&sort=teamGoalsAgainst&viewName=plusMinus

Defensively he's weak, physically he's weak, he will bail on a play but he does care about winning.

Goals Against Worst 10 for Leafs

1 Dion Phaneuf 101
2 Cody Franson 89
3 James van Riemsdyk 87
4 Phil Kessel 82
5 Carl Gunnarsson 78
6 Jay McClement 71
7 Tyler Bozak 69
8 Mason Raymond 66
9 Morgan Rielly 64
10 Nazem Kadri 61


Trying to outscore their problems.

In some cases that is understandable, but if you aren't facing the best or playing PK perhaps you are one of the problems here.

Without Gunnar and Bozak, this team is scary bad defensively. Well we don't have Gunnar anymore, Dion and Gardiner or Franson? Yeah feel good about this. How did Lupul and Clarkson not get on this list and Kadri is.

Agree about the assessment on Kessel, he cares, and he is a terrific points producer. Not much on the walls, and bails out defensively when a hit is coming. Nobody is perfect.

BTW JVR's not much defensively either. But at least he kills PIMS.

 

[hockeyfanz*]

Perhaps the feeling is that the goals against are more of a result of the system than of the player's skills.

So the "system" does not benefit them scoring goals but rather only a poor system to give up goals. Obviously not a believer in cause and effect.

Sports forums are hilarious..People making up stuff..bending numbers and stats and trying to avoid the most obvious measuring sticks (results) to justify their favorite players.

So the "system" is only poor in defending and cannot be attributed to helping in scoring goals... OK.

The best argument yet...

+/- is not fair because it doesn't take into account that 6 players are on the ice.....yeah okay....and when one of those six is the goalie standing on his head almost every night and one of the others is the captain more often than not on the ice when the top line is on the ice...hmm that leaves one player who is responsible for the entire crappy defensive play of the entire team...

Dion Phaneuf's partner. No wonder they traded Carl Gunnarsson.. Because he clearly was the reason why the Leafs are a horrible defensive team. I think they solved the mystery..

Now Nonis and Leafs Nation will work on the mystery of getting that Caramilk in a Caramilk bar.

 

[CellarDweller0]

So the "system" does not benefit them scoring goals but rather only a poor system to give up goals. Obviously not a believer in cause and effect.

On the contrary, and offensive focused system can often result in higher GF as well as GA.

 

[rojac]

So the "system" does not benefit them scoring goals but rather only a poor system to give up goals. Obviously not a believer in cause and effect.

Sports forums are hilarious..People making up stuff..bending numbers and stats and trying to avoid the most obvious measuring sticks (results) to justify their favorite players.

So the "system" is only poor in defending and cannot be attributed to helping in scoring goals... OK.

The best argument yet...

+/- is not fair because it doesn't take into account that 6 players are on the ice.....yeah okay....and when one of those six is the goalie standing on his head almost every night and one of the others is the captain more often than not on the ice when the top line is on the ice...hmm that leaves one player who is responsible for the entire crappy defensive play of the entire team...

Dion Phaneuf's partner. No wonder they traded Carl Gunnarsson.. Because he clearly was the reason why the Leafs are a horrible defensive team. I think they solved the mystery..

Now Nonis and Leafs Nation will work on the mystery of getting that Caramilk in a Caramilk bar.

First, I was only stating that perhaps management believed a change in system would change results. And in particular, the goals against when these players are on the ice. Since the discussion was primarily about GA and it was quick one-off reply as opposed to a fully detailed reply to the whole subject of the thread, I did not address the issue of GF. But does it really need to be addressed? Of course, GF might be affected by a change in a system. That's pretty obvious.

Well, since I'm not privy to internal Leaf management discussion, I can only speculate on why they traded Gunnarson. My guess is that was a piece St. Louis wanted for giving up Polak and Leaf management saw the addition of Polak to the defense corps as outweighing the loss of Gunnarson from the corps. It doesn't necessarily mean that they blamed him for anything.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Here is are some pics from yesterday (i believe) of Kessel golfing with his personal trainer.

 

[ACC1224]

Here is are some pics from yesterday (i believe) of Kessel golfing with his personal trainer.

That's John Daly.