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I have not seen a shortage of posts criticizing the Habs for taking a goalie with the fifth pick. Quite a number of you fine folks are of the opinion that drafting a goalie in the first round, particularly in the top ten, will be a huge risk under the new CBA because teams won't get to reap the full benefits of the player when he bolts as a free agent at age 27. Many of you note that goalies don't reach their prime until about 26 or so. While the argument is not without it's merits, I am of the opinion that very few highly drafted goalies that pan out will be let go by their respective teams at the age of 27. Here's why:
Let's just say that the average goalie isn't really developed before the age of 27, that he's just reaching his prime. That would also mean that he couldn't command an outrageous salary either then, would it not? Thus the team that owns his rights is more than likely going to be able to re-sign him at a reasonable price that doesn't screw up their salary cap. Are 27-year-old goalies in the future that are relatively unproven going to be getting the maximum from other teams? Nope.
What about the forward drafted from the same year that has been putting up great numbers for four or five years, however? Might he not be more likely to be signed by another team, because his salary demands would be much higher than the as yet unproven goalie?
Who would command more? A 27-year-old goalie that has been a starter for two years, or a 27-year-old forward that has scored 70+ points in three of his six seasons in the league? Ummm...........
Let's say Price becomes a starter at about age 24 or 25, puts up some decent numbers, but is just starting to reach his full potential when free agency rolls around at the age of 27. The Habs will more than likely be able to sign him to a long-term deal as a 26-year-old (before he's become a true star) in the $3-4 million range.
On the other hand; let's look at a Bobby Ryan. Suppose he is close to being the next Nash, and leads the league in goals (or comes damn close to it) at the age of 22 or 23. Anaheim (with Neidermayer already in tow) has to dole out $5M+ for four years, and then at the age of 27, he walks away to a team that offers him $7 million per season. Meanwhile the Habs over the course of seven seasons paid Price about $20 million less, and still have him in nets for his prime years.
Let's say Brule makes the NHL at 19 (a possibility given Columbus' lack of forward depth), and by the age of 26 he's a UFA after seven years of service. His scoring doesn't really come around until he's 23 or 24, but by 26 he's a 40-goal, 40 assist man, and decides to try free agency. Columbus (who by this time is paying Nash the maximum and Zherdev $5M+) has to pony up $5M+ to keep him. Meanwhile, Price is signed at $3 or $4 million at the age of 26 and settles into his role as an elite number one on a solid playoff contender. Were the two or three productive seasons from Brule worth more than the Habs having Price for a decade or more?
If Price is the real deal and, like other elite goalies in the past decade, is a starter by age 22, then the Habs will have gotten their money's worth even if he splits at age 27. Same goes with a Brule or Ryan if they have four or five productive seasons before splitting at age 26. Those are the chances you have to take.
There's more than one way to look at it, folks. You can't go into a draft worrying about not being able to sign your prospect when he's 27 - too many things can happen. If Price becomes a starter at age 22 or so and is a dominant player, then he will command a huge salary at age 27 and be hard to keep, just like Ryan will if he produces like Nash. If Price sucks, no one will care about him becoming a UFA at age 27; same with Ryan. If Price is just coming into his own (often the case with goalies), the Habs will likely be able to keep him for his elite years at a decent cost.
If anything, I think it makes more sense to draft a goalie high (if he's the guy you like) under the new CBA. You're not likely going to be paying him max-type money until he's over 27 and hitting his prime anyways.
Did you not notice that high scoring forwards in their mid 20s (Thornton, Lecavalier, Hossa, Iginla) were commanding huge bucks this month? How many 26-27-year-old goalies have been given that kind of jack since the NHL came back? None. Marty Brodeur was not making huge money at 27, luongo is going to be making about half of what Lecavalier makes....
Let's just say that the average goalie isn't really developed before the age of 27, that he's just reaching his prime. That would also mean that he couldn't command an outrageous salary either then, would it not? Thus the team that owns his rights is more than likely going to be able to re-sign him at a reasonable price that doesn't screw up their salary cap. Are 27-year-old goalies in the future that are relatively unproven going to be getting the maximum from other teams? Nope.
What about the forward drafted from the same year that has been putting up great numbers for four or five years, however? Might he not be more likely to be signed by another team, because his salary demands would be much higher than the as yet unproven goalie?
Who would command more? A 27-year-old goalie that has been a starter for two years, or a 27-year-old forward that has scored 70+ points in three of his six seasons in the league? Ummm...........
Let's say Price becomes a starter at about age 24 or 25, puts up some decent numbers, but is just starting to reach his full potential when free agency rolls around at the age of 27. The Habs will more than likely be able to sign him to a long-term deal as a 26-year-old (before he's become a true star) in the $3-4 million range.
On the other hand; let's look at a Bobby Ryan. Suppose he is close to being the next Nash, and leads the league in goals (or comes damn close to it) at the age of 22 or 23. Anaheim (with Neidermayer already in tow) has to dole out $5M+ for four years, and then at the age of 27, he walks away to a team that offers him $7 million per season. Meanwhile the Habs over the course of seven seasons paid Price about $20 million less, and still have him in nets for his prime years.
Let's say Brule makes the NHL at 19 (a possibility given Columbus' lack of forward depth), and by the age of 26 he's a UFA after seven years of service. His scoring doesn't really come around until he's 23 or 24, but by 26 he's a 40-goal, 40 assist man, and decides to try free agency. Columbus (who by this time is paying Nash the maximum and Zherdev $5M+) has to pony up $5M+ to keep him. Meanwhile, Price is signed at $3 or $4 million at the age of 26 and settles into his role as an elite number one on a solid playoff contender. Were the two or three productive seasons from Brule worth more than the Habs having Price for a decade or more?
If Price is the real deal and, like other elite goalies in the past decade, is a starter by age 22, then the Habs will have gotten their money's worth even if he splits at age 27. Same goes with a Brule or Ryan if they have four or five productive seasons before splitting at age 26. Those are the chances you have to take.
There's more than one way to look at it, folks. You can't go into a draft worrying about not being able to sign your prospect when he's 27 - too many things can happen. If Price becomes a starter at age 22 or so and is a dominant player, then he will command a huge salary at age 27 and be hard to keep, just like Ryan will if he produces like Nash. If Price sucks, no one will care about him becoming a UFA at age 27; same with Ryan. If Price is just coming into his own (often the case with goalies), the Habs will likely be able to keep him for his elite years at a decent cost.
If anything, I think it makes more sense to draft a goalie high (if he's the guy you like) under the new CBA. You're not likely going to be paying him max-type money until he's over 27 and hitting his prime anyways.
Did you not notice that high scoring forwards in their mid 20s (Thornton, Lecavalier, Hossa, Iginla) were commanding huge bucks this month? How many 26-27-year-old goalies have been given that kind of jack since the NHL came back? None. Marty Brodeur was not making huge money at 27, luongo is going to be making about half of what Lecavalier makes....