Why Marc Bergevin Needs to Integrate an Average of Two Rookies Per Year

[Lshap]

We've been notoriously bad at developing high-end talent regularly, something about our system or our development pipeline is hindering the offensive instincts of nearly ALL our prospects. Except Pacioretty.

Here's the question: Are our prospects high-end talent? Timmins seems to have drafted a superior crop of potential 2nd and 3rd line forwards, but how likely is it that any become 1st line 'high-end' players? Aside from Galchenyuk, Habs have been picking lower down in the 1st round, where it's much harder to find that diamond in the rough. Yeah, we found one with Pacioretty, but it doesn't happen often. Our best-looking offensive guy is probably Scherbak, and I really like McCarron's IQ and style of play. Very happy with both. But while we certainly can expect them to improve the team and have decent production in the NHL, is it realistic to expect top-end talent from the 26th and 25th overall picks?

If they don't become high-end players, is that the fault of development, Timmons picking the wrong guys, or the limits of picking lower down?

 

[WhiskeySeven*]

LShap, how else do you get high-end talent?

BargainBin says that it isn't Playstation - so trades are out of the picture. FA's are garbage, apparently. And now developing your own players is hard?

What the hell is going on man?

 

[Lshap]

LShap, how else do you get high-end talent?

BargainBin says that it isn't Playstation - so trades are out of the picture. FA's are garbage, apparently. And now developing your own players is hard?

What the hell is going on man?

Everybody wants high-end talent, but we could get the job done just as well by stocking up on 2nd and 3rd line talent. Scherbak and McCarron probably won't add high-end scoring, but if they score 20 in a couple of years I won't see it as a failure of drafting or developing. Add their 20 to our roster of other 20-goal players and the Habs have real scoring depth, even without any high-end scoring beyond Max.

As to trades, I'm pretty sure there will be another face on the team by next playoffs. Can't say who or when. Sometimes the best deals happen after the season starts and a GM realizes his team isn't going anywhere. Or maybe it happens tomorrow. Doesn't matter when, as long as Bergevin improves our scoring by March. Yes, ideally we would've landed Kessel, but there will be plenty of other deals to be made between now and February that add goals. Kassian adds a few. Add another 2nd-line player like Stafford and Habs actually have real scoring depth this season.

 

[DAChampion]

We can't simply add McCarron's future scoring, as we also need to subtract the declining scoring of Plekanec and Markov, and Pacioretty may never hot a 40g pace again given his age. You also need to subtract Weise's production and PAP's production, since they would lose those lineup spots.

If the Habs just have second and third liners slowly coming in, they are not improving, they are staying level at best.

 

[RealityBytes]

Is average performance good enough?

I've been banging this drum quite a while. Just improving a team is not good enough. All teams improve. If a team does not improve more than the other teams they are competing against they stay the same and/or actually fall behind.

Average performance and improvement yields average and the team remains the same ... the treadmill effect of moving but going nowhere.

 

[Jaynki]

Because he can't sign good of FA or acquire top 6 player via trade

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

I don't care too much about these statistics, MB doesn't have much credit or criticism to get here. At some point or another, it becomes evident that a player should graduate into your lineup. DLR did great last season, so he graduated. Ghetto and Hudon will have their chance in the NHL because of their good performance in the AHL. If they do well in the NHL they will stay, if not we are going to send them down. And one way or another, you have to graduate your prospects because at some point they will become waiver eligible. So obviously, because we don't want to lose them, Pateryn and Tinordi will graduate this season, MB has almost nothing to do with this. It is just the way it should be.

And MB doesn't need to integrate an average of two rookies per season. He should integrate rookies when the time comes, if we have a lot of good prospects at the same time, it will be more, otherwise it will be less. You just have to make room for them. If we had an exceptional prospect coming up now, I guess we wouldn't have resign Flynn or Mitchell. It is as simple as that.

 

[Halakitlikethat]

I'm confident one or two of our kids will step in next season. We will score more goals then last year.

 

[DAChampion]

The idea that 22 year-old "kids" only graduate because they deserve it is fiction.

Beaulieu is only in the lineup because there were injuries last year. With a healthy lineup last year, he would have seen zero NHL time regardless of jow well he played.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

I don't care too much about these statistics, MB doesn't have much credit or criticism to get here. At some point or another, it becomes evident that a player should graduate into your lineup. DLR did great last season, so he graduated. Ghetto and Hudon will have their chance in the NHL because of their good performance in the AHL. If they do well in the NHL they will stay, if not we are going to send them down. And one way or another, you have to graduate your prospects because at some point they will become waiver eligible. So obviously, because we don't want to lose them, Pateryn and Tinordi will graduate this season, MB has almost nothing to do with this. It is just the way it should be.

And MB doesn't need to integrate an average of two rookies per season. He should integrate rookies when the time comes, if we have a lot of good prospects at the same time, it will be more, otherwise it will be less. You just have to make room for them. If we had an exceptional prospect coming up now, I guess we wouldn't have resign Flynn or Mitchell. It is as simple as that.

The point is, if your not averaging a significant number of graduations per year your pipeline as a whole is suspect. This isn't to advocate rushing players before they are ready to meet a quota, its a way of looking at how the system is performing globally to see if you are doing well enough compared to the typical NHL team to sustain competitiveness.

This process is particularly important in the cap era because ELC and players on their early RFA age deals are vital as they are the ones that can be expected to over-perform their cap hits. But the thing is its pointless from a cap perspective to have RFA players filling your deep depth roles (6-7 defensemen, 10-14th forwards, backup goaltenders) because they aren't notably cheaper than the veterans filling those spots. The cap advantage comes from having young players in important positions, like Montreal had with Gallagher and Galchenyuk on their ELCs or Subban on his bridge deal recently. The only player Montreal can comfortably project to have in a realitively important role on a cheap contract for next season is Bealieu, which is a bit concerning. He's also the only young skater Montreal can reasonably have said to have graduated and integrated into the lineup IMO over the past two seasons. I wouldn't consider players who haven't been used in a consistent significant minute role like Bounrival, DLR, Pateryn or Tinordi to be graduated players. All concievably could be in the pressbox or AHL next season.

TLDR: Montreal really can only have been said to have graduated Beaulieu in the past two seasons, this a big reason they are now tight to the cap on a roster with noticeable holes.

 

[BaseballCoach]

The point is, if your not averaging a significant number of graduations per year your pipeline as a whole is suspect. This isn't to advocate rushing players before they are ready to meet a quota, its a way of looking at how the system is performing globally to see if you are doing well enough compared to the typical NHL team to sustain competitiveness.

This process is particularly important in the cap era because ELC and players on their early RFA age deals are vital as they are the ones that can be expected to over-perform their cap hits. But the thing is its pointless from a cap perspective to have RFA players filling your deep depth roles (6-7 defensemen, 10-14th forwards, backup goaltenders) because they aren't notably cheaper than the veterans filling those spots. The cap advantage comes from having young players in important positions, like Montreal had with Gallagher and Galchenyuk on their ELCs or Subban on his bridge deal recently. The only player Montreal can comfortably project to have in a realitively important role on a cheap contract for next season is Bealieu, which is a bit concerning. He's also the only young skater Montreal can reasonably have said to have graduated and integrated into the lineup IMO over the past two seasons. I wouldn't consider players who haven't been used in a consistent significant minute role like Bounrival, DLR, Pateryn or Tinordi to be graduated players. All concievably could be in the pressbox or AHL next season.

TLDR: Montreal really can only have been said to have graduated Beaulieu in the past two seasons, this a big reason they are now tight to the cap on a roster with noticeable holes.

If you're talking about cap TODAY, we have Beaulieu, DeLaRose, Tokarski and Tinordi slotted to start the season with us who were not there two years ago. All four replace higher priced guys who left. DSP should count too, as we got him for Sekac who was a rookie and same age.

 

[DAChampion]

Tinordi is slotted as the number 8 dman currently. He is not an integrated player by any means.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Tinordi is slotted as the number 8 dman currently. He is not an integrated player by any means.

But from a Cap point of view is cheaper than Weaver or Bouillon

 

[DAChampion]

But from a Cap point of view is cheaper than Weaver or Bouillon

100, 000 here, 100, 000 there ... and you'll never be talking about real money.

TtG's point was that savings accrue by replacing expensive players with young players. With those millions saved, such as with Beaulieu, you have money to sign an acactual good player.

 

[Fozz]

The idea that 22 year-old "kids" only graduate because they deserve it is fiction.

Beaulieu is only in the lineup because there were injuries last year. With a healthy lineup last year, he would have seen zero NHL time regardless of jow well he played.

It's next to impossible to have a healthier lineup than what we had last year. Besides, most player get their first chance during injury replacement duties and they need to deserve to be the one called up when that happens.

 

[BaseballCoach]

100, 000 here, 100, 000 there ... and you'll never be talking about real money.

TtG's point was that savings accrue by replacing expensive players with young players. With those millions saved, such as with Beaulieu, you have money to sign an acactual good player.

Tinordi costs $1M less than Weaver, and $800k less than Bouillon did

 

[DAChampion]

Tinordi costs $1M less than Weaver, and $800k less than Bouillon did

I had forgotten that they were ridiculously overpaid.

Given that Bergevin likes overpaying for worthless plugs you have a point.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

If you're talking about cap TODAY, we have Beaulieu, DeLaRose, Tokarski and Tinordi slotted to start the season with us who were not there two years ago. All four replace higher priced guys who left. DSP should count too, as we got him for Sekac who was a rookie and same age.

Do you project DLR, Tinordi, Tokarski and DSP to be playing an impact role next season? I.e. quality 3rd line forward or higher, 5th defenseman or higher, platoon goaltender or higher? I don't. That's where they need to be if you're going to see significant cap efficiencies from them over veterans.

Right now I only see Bealieau playing that high. DSP might have been used that way last season, but I really don't think he showed he should be there.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Do you project DLR, Tinordi, Tokarski and DSP to be playing an impact role next season? I.e. quality 3rd line forward or higher, 5th defenseman or higher, platoon goaltender or higher? I don't. That's where they need to be if you're going to see significant cap efficiencies from them over veterans.

Right now I only see Bealieau playing that high. DSP might have been used that way last season, but I really don't think he showed he should be there.

DLR will play over 11-12 minutes so he should count.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

DLR will play over 11-12 minutes so he should count.

He could play 11-12 minutes. 11-12 minutes means your either a 4th line who plays a special team or a 3rd who doesn't and who also never moves up the lineup, a guy doing that is probably 9 to 11 on your depth chart as a forward and not a particularly high value player unless he's a very good scorer in limited minutes, which DLR probably won't be. He certainly didn't do so well as a 3rd liner last season that we should consider him a lock for anything in the NHL next season, see Bournival from the year before. I'd also consider DLR sufficiently sup-par offensively that he's not really doing much more for you than a similarly priced veteran forward even if a crummy forward depth situation places him on the 3rd line.

He'd be providing a minor cap advantage to be sure, but a major source of efficency. He's really not playing that big a role compared to your million to million and a half veteran forwards to be a make a huge differency in cap efficency, particularly if he's the 2nd best low cost young player in your lineup.

 

[BaseballCoach]

He could play 11-12 minutes. He certainly didn't do so well as a 3rd liner last season that we should consider him a lock for anything in the NHL next season, see Bournival from the year before. I'd also consider DLR sufficiently sup-par offensively that he's not really doing much more for you than a similarly priced veteran forward even if a crummy forward depth situation places him on the 3rd line.

He'd be providing a minor cap advantage to be sure, but a major source of efficency. He's really not playing that big a role.

Yeah, and that guy Price doesn't score much either. Pretty disappointing.

Seriously, 11-12 minutes and never being benched (he wasn't last year so assume that remains the same) IS INDEED a significant role.

 

[BaseballCoach]

He (DLR) certainly didn't do so well as a 3rd liner last season....

Who told you this? Some goalposts?

It certainly wasn't the coach or the GM. They were happy with the player.

This thread is about people who have a role with the team, not whether some amateur poster on the Internet (all of us, not just you) agrees with the role.

 

[calder candidate]

at first avg. 2 players per year seem like alot but it seem right in order to stay competitive especially in the cap world.
The number of player being intergrated is important but the quality is even more important.

Player being intergraded need to be:
Upgrade over current play push other player down the depth chart.
Replace player being lost due to UFA or cap consideration.
Fill specific role.

If the player are just roster spot filler to fit under the cap the team isn't improving.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

Yeah, and that guy Price doesn't score much either. Pretty disappointing.

Seriously, 11-12 minutes and never being benched (he wasn't last year so assume that remains the same) IS INDEED a significant role.

He's not preventing that many goals in the grand scheme of things as a 3rd line LW who is a 3rd unit option on the penalty kill. That's essentially a lesser version of Travis Moen, something you shouldn't be paying much more than a ~1.5 million for from a veteran forward. Its not that big an advantage on the cap to have DLR doing that job compared to somebody else.

Compare to a year like 2009-10 for example, which wasn't that strong a year for bringing up youth into major roles you had Pouliot/Latendresse as a top six winger, S. Kostitsyn as a third line scoring forward and Gorges as a number 4 defense all on very cheap youth deals. Your example of De La Rose would be more comparable to a guy like Lapierre from that season, playing a lesser role.

 

[DAChampion]

Young Players Brought In:
This is the full list of players who have begun or nearly begun their careers during the Bergevin administration, and total games played up until now:

Nathan Beaulieu, 87 games
Gabriel Dumont, 18 games
Alex Galchenyuk, 193 games
Brendan Gallagher, 207 games
Greg Pateryn, 20 games
Jarred Tinordi, 43 games
Patrick Holland, 5 games
Joonas Nattinen, 1 game
Christian Thomas, 21 games
Dustin Tokarski, 20 games
Sven Andrighetto, 12 games
Michael Bournival, 89 games
Jacob De La Rose, 33 games
Jiri Sekac, 69 games
Devante smith-Pelly, 149 games

Revisiting this six months later, it is clear that I was overestimating Bergevin, something argued by Talk to Goalposts at the time:

Do you project DLR, Tinordi, Tokarski and DSP to be playing an impact role next season? I.e. quality 3rd line forward or higher, 5th defenseman or higher, platoon goaltender or higher? I don't. That's where they need to be if you're going to see significant cap efficiencies from them over veterans.

Right now I only see Bealieau playing that high. DSP might have been used that way last season, but I really don't think he showed he should be there.

We're now 3.5 years into the Bergevin era. The number of young players integrated is:
Brenden Gallagher - fully integrated
Alex Galchenyuk - minutes still being held back
Nathan Beaulieu - grudgingly
Devante Smith-Pelly - 4th liner on the bubble

Cases can be made for Daniel Carr and Mike Condon. In the case of Carr, it's very plausible that Bergevin will go dumpster-diving for a 33 year-old 3rd liner and then send Carr down to the minors. Condon might not be back next year, as Bergevin is implicitly insulting him in the media.

This is a failing of this administration. They don't like youth.