Why Kucherov's Hart case is underrated

[Paul4587]

I think MacKinnon is (currently) a lock for the Hart and until I did some digging he would have been my choice. But after looking at the splits against PO/Non playoff teams what Kucherov is doing with nowhere near as much help as the other three is insane.

See below for the splits. Who is considered a playoff team is determined as of the standings right now. Before todays games when Washington was in the difference in production versus top teams was even more lopsided in favor of Kucherov.

Auston Matthews
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Non Playoff teams	34	34	14	48	82	34	116
Vs Playoff teams	31	21	13	34	56	34	90
Total	65	55	27	82	69	34	103
Nathan MacKinnon
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Non Playoff teams	37	23	42	65	51	93	144
Vs Playoff teams	31	19	32	51	50	85	135
Total	68	42	74	116	51	89	140
Nikita Kucherov
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Non Playoff teams	34	13	41	54	31	99	130
Vs Playoff teams	32	27	33	60	69	85	154
Total	66	40	74	114	50	92	142
Connor McDavid
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Non Playoff teams	33	14	42	56	35	104	139
Vs Playoff teams	30	11	39	50	30	107	137
Total	63	25	81	106	33	105	138

Click to read more...

 

[Beukeboom]

However this statistic is more complicated due to the division-system. Some playoff teams are crappier than many non playoff teams etc. Would be more interesting to see stats vs top five teams per conference, or something along those lines.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

We can only hope the trophy is handed out before season’s end.

 

[Paul4587]

However this statistic is more complicated due to the division-system. Some playoff teams are crappier than many non playoff teams etc. Would be more interesting to see stats vs top five teams per conference, or something along those lines.

Getting into a smaller sample size but here are the numbers:

Auston Matthews
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Other	45	44	18	62	80	33	113
Vs Top 5 teams each conference	20	11	9	20	45	37	82
Total	65	55	27	82	69	34	103
Nathan MacKinnon
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Other	50	33	58	91	54	95	149
Vs Top 5 teams each conference	18	9	16	25	41	73	114
Total	68	42	74	116	51	89	140
Nikita Kucherov
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Other	43	19	47	66	36	90	126
Vs Top 5 teams each conference	23	21	27	48	75	96	171
Total	66	40	74	114	50	92	142
Connor McDavid
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Other	47	22	64	86	38	112	150
Vs Top 5 teams each conference	16	3	17	20	15	87	103
Total	63	25	81	106	33	105	138

Paints Kucherov in an even better light. Really poor splits for Matthews and especially McDavid.

 

[Beukeboom]

Getting into a smaller sample size but here are the numbers:

Auston Matthews
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Other	45	44	18	62	80	33	113
Vs Top 5 teams each conference	20	11	9	20	45	37	82
Total	65	55	27	82	69	34	103
Nathan MacKinnon
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Other	50	33	58	91	54	95	149
Vs Top 5 teams each conference	18	9	16	25	41	73	114
Total	68	42	74	116	51	89	140
Nikita Kucherov
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Other	43	19	47	66	36	90	126
Vs Top 5 teams each conference	23	21	27	48	75	96	171
Total	66	40	74	114	50	92	142
Connor McDavid
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Other	47	22	64	86	38	112	150
Vs Top 5 teams each conference	16	3	17	20	15	87	103
Total	63	25	81	106	33	105	138

Paints Kucherov in an even better light. Really poor splits for Matthews and especially McDavid.

Yeah, that actually made Kucherov's season even more impressive!

Appreciate your effort with the statistics btw.

 

[AppreciateHockey]

-

 

[bobholly39]

Yeah, that actually made Kucherov's season even more impressive!

Appreciate your effort with the statistics btw.

I agree it's quite impressive....but does impressive = valuable? I don't know that this necessarily makes it any more valuable in regards to Hart consideration.

You get points and help your team win games...if anything, you might argue MacKinnon or McDavid or whoever ensuring their teams win all the "easy games" against lower seeded teams, games they can't afford to lose, is just as valuable if not more.

Coming back to hart - i'll stick to what I've been saying for a while.

If either MacKinnon or Kucherov win the Art Ross - I really, really hope that's the differentiator and that player also wins the hart. Both incredible seasons, but I would be really lame for one of those guys to win the Ross by 1 or 2 points....just to lose the hart. If they manage to win the Ross, they should also be rewarded with Hart.

McDavid is slightly more complicated...because of his insane track record, Im' not against a bit of voter bias/higher bar, so him winning the hart might necessitate him winning the ross by a bit of a gap.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Good find. The only problem is i doubt hart voters dig this deep. They likely click on scoring leaders look and then proceed to vote. Mc only has 25 goals which should hurt him in voting as well.

 

[Goose]

I don’t get why this matters other than being interesting.

You can make the argument that making sure you pick up the points you’re supposed to is more important.

It’s completely subjective as far as I can tell. Plus, we are talking very small sample sizes.

Interesting research, but even knowing this I’m not sure how it’s supposed to move the needle.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I noticed this season that some of Kucherov´s best games were against teams like the Hurricanes, Rangers and Bruins. Good to see the stats match the eyes a bit.

Noticed the opposite with McDavid. Lots of points vs bottom feeders but scoreless or just a point vs better teams even though Oilers would still score 4-6 goals.

If Brayden Point start heating up now, he has not looked himself until that 6 point game, then it might put Kuch over the top for the Hart.

You noticed that Mcdavids ppg dropped from 1.695 to 1.67? Is there a way to follow posters so I can keep every post of yours in my feed?

 

[TGWL]

How many were against playoff teams before they were playoff teams?
In all seriousness, he's in the top 3 conversation for the hart trophy and was holding the top spot for a large part of the season. So I really don't his case is underrated.

 

[Fire Sweeney]

I don’t get why this matters other than being interesting.

You can make the argument that making sure you pick up the points you’re supposed to is more important.

It’s completely subjective as far as I can tell. Plus, we are talking very small sample sizes.

Interesting research, but even knowing this I’m not sure how it’s supposed to move the needle.

It doesn't actually matter, like all pseudo-advanced stats.

 

[mr figgles]

So, Kucherov competes against bad teams the way he competes in the skills competition. Doesn’t sound very MVP worthy. If he put forth some effort in those games, Tampa would be comfortably in a playoff position rather than just hanging on.

 

[Toby91ca]

I think MacKinnon is (currently) a lock for the Hart and until I did some digging he would have been my choice. But after looking at the splits against PO/Non playoff teams what Kucherov is doing with nowhere near as much help as the other three is insane.

See below for the splits. Who is considered a playoff team is determined as of the standings right now. Before todays games when Washington was in the difference in production versus top teams was even more lopsided in favor of Kucherov.

Auston Matthews
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Non Playoff teams	34	34	14	48	82	34	116
Vs Playoff teams	31	21	13	34	56	34	90
Total	65	55	27	82	69	34	103
Nathan MacKinnon
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Non Playoff teams	37	23	42	65	51	93	144
Vs Playoff teams	31	19	32	51	50	85	135
Total	68	42	74	116	51	89	140
Nikita Kucherov
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Non Playoff teams	34	13	41	54	31	99	130
Vs Playoff teams	32	27	33	60	69	85	154
Total	66	40	74	114	50	92	142
Connor McDavid
	GP	G	A	Pts	G/82	A/82	P/82
Vs Non Playoff teams	33	14	42	56	35	104	139
Vs Playoff teams	30	11	39	50	30	107	137
Total	63	25	81	106	33	105	138

It's interesting stats more than anything in my mind. Scoring more against playoff teams than someone else wouldn't sway my vote that much. Also, what if the best teams in the league focus on stopping MacKinnon, thinking if they stop him they have a good chance at winning and take the position that they let Kucherov get his points, but if they stop the rest of the team, they can still win? Neither of these are necessarily true, but just saying, the stat splits don't mean much to me.

 

[ijuka]

Tampa has more depth, though. 5 players at 60 points or more...

Still, it's true that Tampa has benefited more from Kucherov, so you could say he deserves MVP. In honesty, the Avalanche would likely be in a playoff spot even without MacKinnon. Tampa would be who knows where without Kucherov.

So, Kucherov competes against bad teams the way he competes in the skills competition. Doesn’t sound very MVP worthy. If he put forth some effort in those games, Tampa would be comfortably in a playoff position rather than just hanging on.

Yeah, I bet he would have 2.5 points per game if he put in the effort, right?

 

[paragon]

I think Colorado and Edmonton would be playoff teams without MacKinnon and McDavid. There's no way Tampa makes it without Kucherov which is a case for Hart Trophy.

 

[Musampa]

If he were a Canadian, 99% of the fans would consider him a top contender. If Tampa makes the playoffs, he should get a Hart Trophy.

 

[Hasbro]

He should get Joel Embiid's campaign team on it.

 

[tucker3434]

It’s important to beat bad teams too. A W is a W.

 

[blundluntman]

This definitely convinces me more that his case for the Hart is stronger than most think. Points are points but when they come against really good teams on a consistent basis, it shows that the player brings his game when you need him to the most; that counts for something. With that being said, I don't think he's gonna win this trophy unless he outscores McDavid and Mackinnon by 10 points and has a strong final stretch of the season.

 

[SA16]

So he plays lazy against weaker competition just like he did in the all star skills competition.

 

[Video Nasty]

If he were a Canadian, 99% of the fans would consider him a top contender. If Tampa makes the playoffs, he should get a Hart Trophy.

He won the Hart with 98% of the vote in 2018-2019. I don’t think this bias I hear about exists, certainly not at the level where it can affect final results.

The reality is, we have three players in particular who are having tremendous seasons and all are Hart worthy to varying degrees.

MacKinnon also has the “never won” label attached to him, but he also currently checks the other boxes like his team being near or at the top of the conference and also leading the scoring race.

Kucherov recently relinquished a scoring lead he held for over three months and unfortunately, that’s not going to help perception.

 

[63 others]

edit: I misread the statiatics

 

[Regal]

When your team is fighting for the playoffs, scoring more against the top teams isn’t really any more valuable. Those teams are already making the playoffs above you and you need every win you can get. I’d say this is more of a factor on his Lindsay case.

Also, I think people are overestimating the Avs ability to make the playoffs without MacKinnon. He’s been in on 46% of the team’s goals (Kucherov is in on 49%), and the team’s GF% 5v5 drops from 61% with him to 49% without him on the ice

 

[jigglysquishy]

The biggest thing that will hurt Kucherov is that he already won. Since Hasek won his second Hart in 1997-98 the only players to win more than one Hart were

Ovechkin (08, 09, 13)
McDavid (17, 21, 23)
Crosby (07, 14)

So only three players in a 26 year period (25 seasons).

Hart voters are hesitant to give someone multiple Harts, even if they put up a Hart worthy season (Jagr 00, Jagr 06, Ovechkin 10, McDavid 18, McDavid 22).

That there are three key forwards gunning for the Hart this year, and only one hasn't won one is a pretty strong lean.

Compare that to the Pearson. Jagr won 3 times, Crosby won 3 times, Ovechkin won 3 times. McDavid won 4 times. Players are much more likely to award someone on repeat.