Why isn't Pierre Turgeon in the hall of fame?

[GreatGonzo]

That's not fantasy world. That is exactly where Turgeon finished in scoring compared to the LW in each particular year.

My Best-Carey

Ok.....your still putting Turgeon in a LW position and showing where he "would have" finished...

1989: 3rd
1990: 1st
1991: 3rd
1992: 3rd
1993: 1st
1994: 3rd
1995: 3rd
1996: 4th
1997: 5th
1998: 3rd
1999: 6th
2000: 6th
2001: 2nd

Kariya at center
1996: 6th
1997: 2nd
1999: 1st
2000: 1st
2003: 6th

Well look at that...turns out, using your fantasy system, if you put Kariya at center during that same time frame, his point finishes actually end up being more impressive than Turgeons at center AND left winger(if he was at that position).

 

[frisco]

This is obviously going nowhere. A sincere apology to all those poor souls following this thread.

Let's go this way, two players. One player is a compiler. He played a lot of games (started when he was 18, played into his late 30's) and due to longevity racked up a lot of points. His peak wasn't very dominant. The other had a rather short career with a brilliant peak and was shutdown early because of injury problems. Who is going to have more points per game? Of course, the flashy guy with the high peak should by far have more points/game. But if you cast Turgeon in the former role and Kariya the latter, Turgeon still outproduces him on a point/game basis 1.03-1.00. And this is in a career that's 300+ games longer. That tells a story.

In almost all cases of recent short career HOFers, they almost always had outstanding per game ratios (Bure 1.11, Lindros 1.14, Lafontaine 1.17, Forsberg 1.25). But Kariya checks in just barely, by the skin of his teeth, at 1.00 ppg. So Kariya neither dominated on per game basis nor had great all-time totals.

You can put Kariya in the Hall but Turgeon has to go to. You can leave both out. But you can't have Kariya in, and Turgeon out.

My Best-Carey

 

[GreatGonzo]

This is obviously going nowhere. A sincere apology to all those poor souls following this thread.

Let's go this way, two players. One player is a compiler. He played a lot of games (started when he was 18, played into his late 30's) and due to longevity racked up a lot of points. His peak wasn't very dominant. The other had a rather short career with a brilliant peak and was shutdown early because of injury problems. Who is going to have more points per game? Of course, the flashy guy with the high peak should by far have more points/game. But if you cast Turgeon in the former role and Kariya the latter, Turgeon still outproduces him on a point/game basis 1.03-1.00. And this is in a career that's 300+ games longer. That tells a story.

In almost all cases of recent short career HOFers, they almost always had outstanding per game ratios (Bure 1.11, Lindros 1.14, Lafontaine 1.17, Forsberg 1.25). But Kariya checks in just barely, by the skin of his teeth, at 1.00 ppg. So Kariya neither dominated on per game basis nor had great all-time totals.

You can put Kariya in the Hall but Turgeon has to go to. You can leave both out. But you can't have Kariya in, and Turgeon out.

My Best-Carey

Kariya waited nearly 7 years for a reason. The difference between the two is Kariya is well remembered while Turgeon is somewhat a flash in the pan.

Kariya was very much a well recognized player in terms of talent, while(although talented) Turgeon didn't really get that much attention. And I do agree, he's no Lindros, Forsberg, or Bure....but Turgeon didn't do anything that we can say is more deserving.

Kariya may not have done much within his career, but Turgeon did much less. He had great seasons, put up a lot of points, and played for a good while....but Kariya just established himself more as an all star and elite player.

Also thank you once again for ignoring my question.

 

[frisco]

My question to you, and it's a very simple question is can you in fact prove that Turgeon would have had more AS votes if the center position wasn't so deep?


....He never beat LaFontaine, Gilmore, Roenick, or Sundin in the AS voting.

I can't prove it. But the reasonable man would suppose if all-time greats like Lemieux, Gretzky, Yzerman, Messier, Oates, Lafontaine, Lindros, Gilmour weren't in the league and in their primes at the same time as Turgeon, he would've garnered a lot more votes, especially on the old style 1-2-3 ballots.

As to the second part of the quote either I'm misunderstanding or something. Without even looking it up, Turgeon beat out Roenick and Sundin in voting in 1993 and other years for all I know. He beat out Gilmour in 1990 (again in other years I'm not even going to check). I'm sure he was ahead of Lafontaine quite a few times. He also beat out Gretzky, Oates, Lindros, Fedorov, Messier, Yzerman, Lafontaine, Sakic, Modano in various years. I don't share your obsession of using just AS votes as the only measure of worthiness, I'll tell you that.

My Best-Carey

 

[GreatGonzo]

I can't prove it. But the reasonable man would suppose if all-time greats like Lemieux, Gretzky, Yzerman, Messier, Oates, Lafontaine, Lindros, Gilmour weren't in the league and in their primes at the same time as Turgeon, he would've garnered a lot more votes, especially on the old style 1-2-3 ballots.

As to the second part of the quote either I'm misunderstanding or something. Without even looking it up, Turgeon beat out Roenick and Sundin in voting in 1993 and other years for all I know. He beat out Gilmour in 1990 (again in other years I'm not even going to check). I'm sure he was ahead of Lafontaine quite a few times. He also beat out Gretzky, Oates, Lindros, Fedorov, Messier, Yzerman, Lafontaine, Sakic, Modano in various years. I don't share your obsession of using just AS votes as the only measure of worthiness, I'll tell you that.

My Best-Carey

How the hell can you argue something that you can't prove? Your judgement Isnt exactly something we can all rely on, and your argument alone collapsed within simply because you can't prove it....

All your saying is "I'm going to tell you your wrong and use a alternative universe where 10-15 centers suddenly don't exist, and OBVIOUSLY Turgeon would have had more recognition, but I can't prove this myself, your just going to have to use your imagination"......what?

Ok, so your logic is take away all those players, and Turgeon would have been more distinguished....and you don't see how incredibly faulty that is? How that could be said about any player?

Ok let's look at the list again..
1. Gretzky: 284
2. Lemieux: 239
3. Messier: 147
4. Forsberg: 139
5. Yzerman: 127
------
6. Sakic: 112
7. Lindros: 110
8. Oates: 97
9. Modano: 86
10. Gilmore: 67
------
11. Fedorov: 64
12. Roenick: 59
13. Francis: 51
14. Yashin: 49
15. LaFontaine: 46
------
16. Sundin: 18
17. Allison: 13
18. Zhammov: 13
19. Turgeon: 10
20. Straka: 3

I don't think you REALLY understand your argument....your saying take away the first 5 players, that Turgeon would clearly be better....except he is still 57 votes behind Gilmore(#10) and 36 from LaFontaine(#15). That's 93 votes to 10.....TEN. He is 87 votes away from Oates for crying out loud. My question is what exactly is going to get Turgeon all those extra votes? His play CLEARLY wasn't head and shoulders above a lot of the centers listed, so outside of magic, what exactly is going to get him all these votes?

I meant career wise. Roenick has 59 votes, and their careers very much go hand in hand with each other. Sundin has 18, which is closer....but he started getting more AS votes after 2000(A2 in 02 and 04).

He beat them out in '93 by one vote. That could have easily gone any other way...

Turgeon beat out Oates in '97 and '00, where as Oates beat him in '90 '91 '93 '94 '98.

Turgeon beat out Sakic in '90 and '93, where as Sakic beat him out in '91 '95 '96 '97 '99
'00
Turgeon beat out Modano in '93, where as Modano beat him in '92 '94 '97 '98 '99 '00

Turgeon beat out Gilmore in in '90 and ' where as Gilmore beat him in '93 '94 '00

Turgeon beat out Yzerman in '97 where as Yzerman beat him out in '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '98 '99 '00

Turgeon beat out Messier in '90 '93 and '97, where as Messier beat him in '90 '91 '92 '94 '96

Turgeon never beat out LaFontaine, he beat out Lemieux in '00 because he wasn't playing, and he beat out Gretzky in '93 because he only played 45 games. He also beat out Lindros in 2000 due to injury.

It's not an obsession, it's your inability to separate fantasy from reality.

 

[frisco]

You're putting WAY too much stock into the AS votes. Under the 3-2-1 ballot with Gretzky and Lemieux dominating, the fringe vote one way or another isn't significant. There are literally dozens of methods superior to voting totals to compare and contrast players. Nobody knows what this actually MEANS. Gretzky was 120 votes better than whomever. What is being measured? Why not try things like points, goals, even on a per game basis? That's understandable.

Also, just like anyone can pick apart statistical arguments by looking at outliers one can do the same to the subjective AS voting process. For example, Roenick 3x as valuable as Sundin??? Alexei Yashin the virtual equal to Ron Francis??? Oates twice the votes of Lafontaine? Gretzky 20 times the player Zhamnov was??? Who knows or cares or can interpret this stuff???

Also, this AS voting fetish doesn't help us compare Kariya vs. Turgeon as they played different positions at different times. So unless you put Kariya at C from 1987-2007 or Turgeon at LW for 1994-2008 or whatever it is a pointless exercise.

My Best-Carey

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I said I was done with this thread, but I can't look away.

Let's look at points per game (since that's "objective"), and let's see how the players ranked compared to all forwards (so we're not getting side-tracked with discussions about the relative strength of centres vs LW).

Let's compare them over their best eleven (consecutive) years. Why eleven? Because that's how far apart Turgeon's first and last top ten PPG seasons were, and I want to make sure he gets full credit for those. Let's set the threshold at 400 games (roughly half the number available). Let's also exclude Gretzky and Lemieux as they're generational talents. (Note - I generally hate PPG arguments, but this seems to be the preferred method in this thread).

Top ten PPG, 1990-2000, min 400 GP, Gretzky & Lemieux excluded
1. Lindros - 1.36 (486)
T2. Jagr - 1.32 (725)
T2. Lafontaine - 1.32 (484)
4. Selanne - 1.29 (564)
5. Sakic - 1.28 (782)
6. Oates - 1.24 (803)
T7. Hull - 1.21 (792)
T7. Turgeon - 1.21 (773)
T7. Yzerman - 1.21 (821)
T10. Bure - 1.15 (513)
T10. Messier - 1.15 (760)

Top ten PPG, 1996-2007, min 400 GP, Gretzky & Lemieux excluded
1. Jagr - 1.37 (832 games)
2. Forsberg - 1.26 (650)
3. Sakic - 1.19 (811)
4 Palffy - 1.08 (646)
5. Kariya - 1.07 (774)
T6. Bure - 1.06 (434)
T6. Lindros - 1.06 (588)
8. Selanne - 1.05 (861)
9. Sundin - 1.00 (860)
10. Tkachuk - 0.99 (744)

Relative to their peers, regardless of position, and with Gretzky & Lemieux removed, Kariya comes out ahead over eleven years - but it's close. Kariya is 5th, Turgeon is T-7th.

How about if we only look at their best five years?

Top ten PPG, 1990-1994, min 200 GP, Gretzky & Lemieux excluded
1. Oates - 1.49 (382)
T2. LaFontaine - 1.47 (306)
T2. Yzerman - 1.47 (380)
4. Hull - 1.41 (392)
5. Neely - 1.33 (216)
T6. Messier - 1.31 (362)
T6. Turgeon - 1.31 (387)
8. Sakic - 1.28 (391)
T9. Recchi - 1.27 (400)
T9. Robitaille - 1.27 (403)

Top ten PPG, 1996-2000, min 200 GP, Gretzky & Lemieux excluded
1. Jagr - 1.55 (366)
2. Lindros - 1.33 (314)
T3. Karyia - 1.29 (329)
T3. Selanne - 1.29 (384)
5. Forsberg - 1.27 (346)
6. Sakic - 1.26 (344)
7. Turgeon 1.13 (337)
8. LeClair - 1.11 (404)
9. Bure - 1.09 (245)
T10. Francis - 1.06 (399)
T10. Modano - 1.06 (364)
T10. Palffy - 1.06 (357)

Over their best five years, Kariya was tied for 3rd behind Jagr and Lindros in PPG. Turgeon was T6th (after removing Lemieux and Gretzky), behind Oates, Lafontaine, Yzerman, Hull and Neely.

Overall the results of my analysis surprised me. I was sure that not only would Turgeon be ahead in the eleven-year comparison, it would have been by a wide margin. Kariya finishing (slightly) ahead was completely unexpected. On the other hand, Turgeon was much closer to Kariya that I thought in the five-year comparison.

(Side note - from 1990 to 2000, all of the top fifteen players in PPG, except Turgeon, are already in the HOF, or surely will be in the case of Jagr. So are 20 of the top 25 - the other four missing out are Mogilny, Roenick, Fleury and Janney).

 

[Howie Hodge]

No apologies needed; we are marveling at the hours lost that will never be recovered spent posting on this thread......

 

[GreatGonzo]

You're putting WAY too much stock into the AS votes. Under the 3-2-1 ballot with Gretzky and Lemieux dominating, the fringe vote one way or another isn't significant. There are literally dozens of methods superior to voting totals to compare and contrast players. Nobody knows what this actually MEANS. Gretzky was 120 votes better than whomever. What is being measured? Why not try things like points, goals, even on a per game basis? That's understandable.

Also, just like anyone can pick apart statistical arguments by looking at outliers one can do the same to the subjective AS voting process. For example, Roenick 3x as valuable as Sundin??? Alexei Yashin the virtual equal to Ron Francis??? Oates twice the votes of Lafontaine? Gretzky 20 times the player Zhamnov was??? Who knows or cares or can interpret this stuff???

Also, this AS voting fetish doesn't help us compare Kariya vs. Turgeon as they played different positions at different times. So unless you put Kariya at C from 1987-2007 or Turgeon at LW for 1994-2008 or whatever it is a pointless exercise.

My Best-Carey

Then stop belittling Kariyas AS Honors. It's that simple.

It's not about one player being MORE valuable than the other, it's about the fact that guys like Sundin, Roenick, and Francis were able to distinguish themselves amongst all that talent at center. From 1990-94(Turgeons prime) Roenick has AS finishes 4,5,5 and even in the later half of Turgeons career, he finished 4 and 5 once again. You complain about how Turgeon is a victim, yet a non HOF player, and I'm sure in many people's eyes, a less talented player, was able gain votes within the same time frame.

 

[Killion]

Amazing. 33pages. Pierre Turgeon. Who knew?

 

[Howie Hodge]

If the HOF found Turgeon half as compelling he'd have had his waiting period waived and have been ushered straight in!!

 

[frisco]

Top ten PPG, 1990-2000, min 400 GP, Gretzky & Lemieux excluded
1. Lindros - 1.36 (486)
T2. Jagr - 1.32 (725)
T2. Lafontaine - 1.32 (484)
4. Selanne - 1.29 (564)
5. Sakic - 1.28 (782)
6. Oates - 1.24 (803)
T7. Hull - 1.21 (792)
T7. Turgeon - 1.21 (773)
T7. Yzerman - 1.21 (821)
T10. Bure - 1.15 (513)
T10. Messier - 1.15 (760)

Top ten PPG, 1996-2007, min 400 GP, Gretzky & Lemieux excluded
1. Jagr - 1.37 (832 games)
2. Forsberg - 1.26 (650)
3. Sakic - 1.19 (811)
4 Palffy - 1.08 (646)
5. Kariya - 1.07 (774)
T6. Bure - 1.06 (434)
T6. Lindros - 1.06 (588)
8. Selanne - 1.05 (861)
9. Sundin - 1.00 (860)
10. Tkachuk - 0.99 (744)

Top ten PPG, 1990-1994, min 200 GP, Gretzky & Lemieux excluded
1. Oates - 1.49 (382)
T2. LaFontaine - 1.47 (306)
T2. Yzerman - 1.47 (380)
4. Hull - 1.41 (392)
5. Neely - 1.33 (216)
T6. Messier - 1.31 (362)
T6. Turgeon - 1.31 (387)
8. Sakic - 1.28 (391)
T9. Recchi - 1.27 (400)
T9. Robitaille - 1.27 (403)

Top ten PPG, 1996-2000, min 200 GP, Gretzky & Lemieux excluded
1. Jagr - 1.55 (366)
2. Lindros - 1.33 (314)
T3. Karyia - 1.29 (329)
T3. Selanne - 1.29 (384)
5. Forsberg - 1.27 (346)
6. Sakic - 1.26 (344)
7. Turgeon 1.13 (337)
8. LeClair - 1.11 (404)
9. Bure - 1.09 (245)
T10. Francis - 1.06 (399)
T10. Modano - 1.06 (364)
T10. Palffy - 1.06 (357)

Thanks for doing this.

Did notice Turgeon although ranking-wise slightly lower is actually closer to the top man than Kariya is in both 10 and 5 year spans.

10 Year
Turgeon 0.15 ppg off the lead. Kariya 0.30 ppg off the lead.

5 Year
Turgeon 0.18 ppg off the lead. Kariya 0.26 ppg off the lead.

My Best-Carey

 

[daver]

5 Year
Turgeon 0.18 ppg off the lead. Kariya 0.26 ppg off the lead.

My Best-Carey

You don't see a difference between Jagr circa 96 to 2000 and Oates?

5 year Kariya would be very close to the top in 1990 to 94.

 

[frisco]

Top ten PPG, 1990-2000, min 400 GP, Gretzky & Lemieux excluded
1. Lindros - 1.36 (486)
T2. Jagr - 1.32 (725)
T2. Lafontaine - 1.32 (484)
4. Selanne - 1.29 (564)
5. Sakic - 1.28 (782)
6. Oates - 1.24 (803)
T7. Hull - 1.21 (792)
T7. Turgeon - 1.21 (773)
T7. Yzerman - 1.21 (821)
T10. Bure - 1.15 (513)
T10. Messier - 1.15 (760)

Top ten PPG, 1996-2007, min 400 GP, Gretzky & Lemieux excluded
1. Jagr - 1.37 (832 games)
2. Forsberg - 1.26 (650)
3. Sakic - 1.19 (811)
4 Palffy - 1.08 (646)
5. Kariya - 1.07 (774)
T6. Bure - 1.06 (434)
T6. Lindros - 1.06 (588)
8. Selanne - 1.05 (861)
9. Sundin - 1.00 (860)
10. Tkachuk - 0.99 (744)

Again, thanks for this. I wonder if the parameters were pushed out one year one either side in Turgeon's case if that would make any difference? That way, Turgeon's 88 point season in 1989 would count as would his 82 points in 79 games (2001).

My Best-Carey

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Again, thanks for this. I wonder if the parameters were pushed out one year one either side in Turgeon's case if that would make any difference? That way, Turgeon's 88 point season in 1989 would count as would his 82 points in 79 games (2001).

My Best-Carey

Extending the time frame slightly hurts Turgeon's rankings. I'm not going present the entire lists, but here's a summary:

1989-2000 (eleven years, min 400 GP, exclude Gretzky and Lemieux) - Turgeon finishes 8th (behind Lindros, Jagr, Lafontaine, Selanne, Yzerman, Sakic and Oates).

1990-2001 (eleven years, min 400 GP, exclude Gretzky and Lemieux) - Turgeon finishes T-10th (behind Lindros, Jagr, Lafontaine, Sakic, Selanne, Forsberg, Oates, Kariya, Yzerman amd tied with Hull).

1989-2001 (twelve years, min 400 GP, exclude Gretzky and Lemieux) - Turgeon finishes T-10th (behind Lindros, Jagr, Lafontaine, Sakic, Selanne, Yzerman, Forsberg, Oates, Kariya, and tied with Hull).

 

[FerrisRox]

You can put Kariya in the Hall but Turgeon has to go to. You can leave both out. But you can't have Kariya in, and Turgeon out.

Actually you can, and in fact, we currently do.

 

[frisco]

1989-2001 (twelve years, min 400 GP, exclude Gretzky and Lemieux) - Turgeon finishes T-10th (behind Lindros, Jagr, Lafontaine, Sakic, Selanne, Yzerman, Forsberg, Oates, Kariya, and tied with Hull).

Thanks again. You wouldn't happen to be able to tell me where Kariya ranks if you add-in 1995 + 2008? Again, if it is not too much trouble.

My Best-Carey

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Thanks again. You wouldn't happen to be able to tell me where Kariya ranks if you add-in 1995 + 2008? Again, if it is not too much trouble.

My Best-Carey

Under those parameters (twelve years - 1995 to 2008), Kariya was 9th in PPG (behind Jagr, Forsberg, Sakic, Heatley, Lindros, Bure, Palffy and Selanne).

 

[frisco]

Under those parameters (twelve years - 1995 to 2008), Kariya was 9th in PPG (behind Jagr, Forsberg, Sakic, Heatley, Lindros, Bure, Palffy and Selanne).

Thanks. This Jagr guy that keeps popping up in these charts. Is he still playing?

My Best-Carey

 

[Neutrinos]

Let's just say for the sake of argument that Kariya and Turgeon are absolutely equal in terms of their impact as players

I think it's reasonable to expect Kariya's most productive years would outperform Turgeon's best seasons given he played with Selanne

 

[GreatGonzo]

Let's just say for the sake of argument that Kariya and Turgeon are absolutely equal in terms of their impact as players

I think it's reasonable to expect Kariya's most productive years would outperform Turgeon's best seasons given he played with Selanne

That did help, but his best season(arguably) in 1996 was without Selanne.

The two were a great match, but both were amazing players in their own right.

 

[quoipourquoi]

That did help, but his best season(arguably) in 1996 was without Selanne.

The two were a great match, but both were amazing players in their own right.

I don't know that 1995-96 is completely divorced from the Selanne trade:

Kariya (before): 53 GP, 29-35-64 (99-pt pace)
Kariya (after): 29 GP, 21-23-44 (124-pt pace)

Turgeon posted 38 goals and 96 points in 80 games, and was right in line with Kariya's offensive numbers prior to the Winnipeg trade.

Ultimately, of the three, Kariya is the one who picks up a 1st Team selection, because he is a Left Wing. If the trade doesn't happen, it's probably Keith Tkachuk's 1st Team spot.

 

[Hobnobs]

I don't know that 1995-96 is completely divorced from the Selanne trade:

Kariya (before): 53 GP, 29-35-64 (99-pt pace)
Kariya (after): 29 GP, 21-23-44 (124-pt pace)

Turgeon posted 38 goals and 96 points in 80 games, and was right in line with Kariya's offensive numbers prior to the Winnipeg trade.

Ultimately, of the three, Kariya is the one who picks up a 1st Team selection, because he is a Left Wing. If the trade doesn't happen, it's probably Keith Tkachuk's 1st Team spot.

Wouldnt it be John LeClair and Kariya ends up second, Tkachuk remains at third?

 

[quoipourquoi]

Wouldnt it be John LeClair and Kariya ends up second, Tkachuk remains at third?

If literally nothing changes. But if the hypothetical is that Selanne stays in Winnipeg with Keith Tkachuk - who was hitting a major hot streak leading into his peak season the following year - I would imagine he's the Left Wing who breaks 100 points in 1995-96.

 

[Hobnobs]

If literally nothing changes. But if the hypothetical is that Selanne stays in Winnipeg with Keith Tkachuk - who was hitting a major hot streak leading into his peak season the following year - I would imagine he's the Left Wing who breaks 100 points in 1995-96.

True he could have passed Kariya, I agree but would he pass LeClair? In terms of voting of course. Obviously its all speculation. Also find it weird that Nedved (I think he spent a majority of the season at LW could be wrong though) and Kamensky was so underrated in the LW votings that year.

That year was strange overall tbh. Jim Carey winning a vezina because of 9 shutouts. Fedorov led the playoffs in assists without even reaching the finals.