Why is Ovechkin's +/- so bad compared to Ward and Chimera?

[plusandminus]

Hi.
I'm not at all a regular in this section, but I'm curious to hear your thoughts on Ovechkin vs Ward and Chimera. I'm a long time follower of the NHL, but am not as updated regarding the last few seasons. Also, English is not my native language.
My stats are presented in a somewhat uncommon way, but the average reader should easily be able to understand them. They are correct, it's just an uncommon presentation.

Stats for Washington during the 2013-2014 regular season (within parantheses is league average):

Situation | Goals for | Goals against | GF - GA | Comment
Overall |235 (225)|240 (235)|-5 (0) | slightly below average
When playing even strength|162 (170)|179 (170)|-17 (0)| quite a bit below average
When playing power play |68 (48)|10 (7)| +58 (+41) | one of the best teams in the league (even though having many opportunities)
When playing penalty killing|5 (7) |51 (48) | -46 (-41) | near average (because they had to play fairly many times short handed)

If one would look at scoring during even strength, we can see that Chimera (36) and Ward (37) scored about as many points as Ovechkin (39) and Backstrom (34).
http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats....ASALL&sort=evenStrengthPoints&viewName=points

On the power play, Backstrom and Ovechkin dominates, scoring lots of points.

How come Ward and Chimera can score as much as Ovie and Backstrom on even strength, while also getting far better +/-?

How come Ovie has by far the worst +/- in the team when playing at home? (You who see him frequently, please explain to me why.)

One should usually try to find natural explainations. But is Ovie and Backstrom really facing that much harder opposition than Chimera and Ward?

One also should understand that Ovie posseses top skills when it comes to scoring goals. No doubt. But is he as good as his "goals scored" shows? After all, he plays a lot of powerplay, he usually goes into play when the team is having an offensive face off, etc.

On what kind of team does Ovie's talent fit best? An above-average team, average team, or below average team?

Click to read more...

 

[Red Dread]

Hi.
I'm not at all a regular in this section, but I'm curious to hear your thoughts on Ovechkin vs Ward and Chimera. I'm a long time follower of the NHL, but am not as updated regarding the last few seasons. Also, English is not my native language.
My stats are presented in a somewhat uncommon way, but the average reader should easily be able to understand them. They are correct, it's just an uncommon presentation.

Stats for Washington during the 2013-2014 regular season (within parantheses is league average):

Situation | Goals for | Goals against | GF - GA | Comment
Overall |235 (225)|240 (235)|-5 (0) | slightly below average
When playing even strength|162 (170)|179 (170)|-17 (0)| quite a bit below average
When playing power play |68 (48)|10 (7)| +58 (+41) | one of the best teams in the league (even though having many opportunities)
When playing penalty killing|5 (7) |51 (48) | -46 (-41) | near average (because they had to play fairly many times short handed)

If one would look at scoring during even strength, we can see that Chimera (36) and Ward (37) scored about as many points as Ovechkin (39) and Backstrom (34).
http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats....ASALL&sort=evenStrengthPoints&viewName=points

On the power play, Backstrom and Ovechkin dominates, scoring lots of points.

How come Ward and Chimera can score as much as Ovie and Backstrom on even strength, while also getting far better +/-?

How come Ovie has by far the worst +/- in the team when playing at home? (You who see him frequently, please explain to me why.)

One should usually try to find natural explainations. But is Ovie and Backstrom really facing that much harder opposition than Chimera and Ward?

One also should understand that Ovie posseses top skills when it comes to scoring goals. No doubt. But is he as good as his "goals scored" shows? After all, he plays a lot of powerplay, he usually goes into play when the team is having an offensive face off, etc.

On what kind of team does Ovie's talent fit best? An above-average team, average team, or below average team?

IIRC Oates discouraged physical contact and defense from both Ovi and Backstrom. That, along with yes, them facing better opposition, help contribute to answer your question.

 

[BTCG]

PM,

+/- is, to me, similar to understanding any pure number element.

Let's look @ diabetes. "120" blood sugars is the critical mark. When your sugars exceed 120, you begin to do damage to your organs.

In +/-, I tend to ignore any minus up to, or below, minus 8. After that, I believe you begin to do damage.

You tell us that his +/- ES is -17.

That is more than twice of what my rule is.

Why AO and not other players, as you cite?

Have you ever watched AO play? He skates back (when he skakes back) like he's skating in mud. His only interest is to score. We know this.... from his own lips. Read the nonsense he foisted recently about what would occur were he to play a 2-way game.

Don't overthink this.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Line mates who refused to shoot, couldn't when they did, a coaching staff that refused to change that line for the majority of the season, and deployment to an unnatural position due solely to handedness all played a big part.

Sure, he's a bad defensive player, but the defensive responsibilities of a winger are so minimal that it wouldn't lead to that drastic a +/-. He's never been a good defensive player.

 

[BTCG]

Line mates who refused to shoot, couldn't when they did, a coaching staff that refused to change that line for the majority of the season, and deployment to an unnatural position due solely to handedness all played a big part.

Sure, he's a bad defensive player, but the defensive responsibilities of a winger are so minimal that it wouldn't lead to that drastic a +/-. He's never been a good defensive player.

Hard to back-check from the neutral zone.

 

[txpd]

Ov lover: Its everyone else's fault.
Ov hater: He won't play defense and when he does, he sucks.

reality: Ov is a winger his defense in his own zone is the defenseman. his coach, Oates, doesn't want the wingers to challenge the point man when he has the puck and doesn't want the defenseman to fear Ovechkin blowing the zone.

In the offensive zone a player like Ovechkin's best defense is to hit the defense below the goal line and to intimidate them into turnovers. Oates, coached the Caps forwards not to hit and to take away passing zones.

So, at even strength Oates effectively took Ovechkin as a threat out of the game by system. Nobody was afraid of Ovechkin's line and so, they threw their top line out against them. Why not?

 

[RandyHolt]

Our top line sucked at ES. And that is sugar coating it.

Let's give Ovi the benefit of the doubt and blame it on Oates and his bizarre ways. Ovi has never led the league in plus minus before, despite similar defensive efforts in previous years.

 

[BTCG]

Ov lover: Its everyone else's fault.
Ov hater: He won't play defense and when he does, he sucks.

reality: Ov is a winger his defense in his own zone is the defenseman. his coach, Oates, doesn't want the wingers to challenge the point man when he has the puck and doesn't want the defenseman to fear Ovechkin blowing the zone.

In the offensive zone a player like Ovechkin's best defense is to hit the defense below the goal line and to intimidate them into turnovers. Oates, coached the Caps forwards not to hit and to take away passing zones.

So, at even strength Oates effectively took Ovechkin as a threat out of the game by system. Nobody was afraid of Ovechkin's line and so, they threw their top line out against them. Why not?

So, AO is a binary concept to you.

Explains a lot.

 

[Dirty Dan]

Ov lover: Its everyone else's fault.
Ov hater: He won't play defense and when he does, he sucks.

reality: Ov is a winger his defense in his own zone is the defenseman. his coach, Oates, doesn't want the wingers to challenge the point man when he has the puck and doesn't want the defenseman to fear Ovechkin blowing the zone.

In the offensive zone a player like Ovechkin's best defense is to hit the defense below the goal line and to intimidate them into turnovers. Oates, coached the Caps forwards not to hit and to take away passing zones.

So, at even strength Oates effectively took Ovechkin as a threat out of the game by system. Nobody was afraid of Ovechkin's line and so, they threw their top line out against them. Why not?

So weak forecheck, and collapsing defense are the issue? How come guys like ward can handle the system. Teams with similar systems don't have it as bad, you don't see phil kessel being -30 on a team of the same calibre

 

[plusandminus]

Thank you for your comments so far.

But those of you who explain it with coaching/Oates... How come Ward and Chimera has so much better +/-? Are they coached differently?

I realize Ovie is a winger. But there have been lots of wingers who has been excellent defensively, for example some might mention Jere Lehtinen.

It rather seems he is favourites. There is evidence that starting a shift in the offensive zone usually is significantly more favourous than starting in the defensive zone.

Regarding +/-, is not an extremely "reliable" stat. A goaltender allowing 40 less ES goals than another would for example hugely affect the +/- of the skaters. But in this case Ovie stands out enough even among his teammates.

I should mention that this is not meant as a Ovie bashing thread. Like I said, he's great at scoring goals (even though I still think things are very much set up for him - like lots of PP time, lots of offensive zone starts, and playing with Backstrom).

During the last season... Has the really been an overall better, or more valuable, player than for example Ward or Chimera?

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

So weak forecheck, and collapsing defense are the issue? How come guys like ward can handle the system. Teams with similar systems don't have it as bad, you don't see phil kessel being -30 on a team of the same calibre

It was a system that eliminated quick transition and emphasized the dump and chase into the offensive zone. A line of Marcus Johansson-Nicklas Backstrom-Alex Ovechkin is a terrible dump and chase line. Chimera-anyone-Ward is an excellent line for dump and chase hockey.

In addition to Ovechkin's poor defensive play, both of the Swedes saw a significant downturn in their defensive play. So there wasn't one defensive hole on the line, there were three. Combine that with a shoddy group of defensemen and the terrible ES play in the offensive zone, and you had other teams targeting the Caps top line with their best offensive line instead of their best checking line.

Chimera and Ward fit the deliberate, dump and chase style, have excellent chemistry, and didn't have play as much against top offensive lines.

 

[txpd]

So weak forecheck, and collapsing defense are the issue? How come guys like ward can handle the system. Teams with similar systems don't have it as bad, you don't see phil kessel being -30 on a team of the same calibre

ward and chimera were not facing the top offense of the opp and that says a lot. further they are a cycle line. oates desire for dump and chase allowed for that line to play defense in the offensive zone.

if phil kessel had been in ovechkin's slot -30 would have been possible.

ovechkin is not a -30 player. it was a combination of many things that created that. it was not an aberration and not a trend. he was not a big minus player before this past season and didn't suddenly become one.

people forget this also. ovechkin is a left wing. not a right wing. most of his quality play this past season came when he was skating on the left. it took the league more than half a regular season to adjust to ov on the right wing. when they did, they took advantage both ov's lack of experience on the right wing and his tendency to go left and oates lack of an answer for the change in defense of ov.

next season, 8 will go back to LW.

oh...one more thing. Next season he will no longer be a big minus player but will still be scoring 50 goals

 

[usiel]

Hi.
I'm not at all a regular in this section, but I'm curious to hear your thoughts on Ovechkin vs Ward and Chimera. I'm a long time follower of the NHL, but am not as updated regarding the last few seasons. Also, English is not my native language.
My stats are presented in a somewhat uncommon way, but the average reader should easily be able to understand them. They are correct, it's just an uncommon presentation.

Stats for Washington during the 2013-2014 regular season (within parantheses is league average):

Situation | Goals for | Goals against | GF - GA | Comment
Overall |235 (225)|240 (235)|-5 (0) | slightly below average
When playing even strength|162 (170)|179 (170)|-17 (0)| quite a bit below average
When playing power play |68 (48)|10 (7)| +58 (+41) | one of the best teams in the league (even though having many opportunities)
When playing penalty killing|5 (7) |51 (48) | -46 (-41) | near average (because they had to play fairly many times short handed)

If one would look at scoring during even strength, we can see that Chimera (36) and Ward (37) scored about as many points as Ovechkin (39) and Backstrom (34).
http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats....ASALL&sort=evenStrengthPoints&viewName=points

On the power play, Backstrom and Ovechkin dominates, scoring lots of points.

How come Ward and Chimera can score as much as Ovie and Backstrom on even strength, while also getting far better +/-?

How come Ovie has by far the worst +/- in the team when playing at home? (You who see him frequently, please explain to me why.)

One should usually try to find natural explainations. But is Ovie and Backstrom really facing that much harder opposition than Chimera and Ward?

One also should understand that Ovie posseses top skills when it comes to scoring goals. No doubt. But is he as good as his "goals scored" shows? After all, he plays a lot of powerplay, he usually goes into play when the team is having an offensive face off, etc.

On what kind of team does Ovie's talent fit best? An above-average team, average team, or below average team?

This is pretty ridiculous that it is a 'thing' this year about +/-. So how to explain to someone who didn't watch capitals game this years... I could but screw that. Take a gander at the NHL game vault and you will see.

 

[Liberati0n*]

I can't even imagine the effort it would take to read this thread right now #memorialday #hashtags

 

[plusandminus]

This is pretty ridiculous that it is a 'thing' this year about +/-. So how to explain to someone who didn't watch capitals game this years... I could but screw that. Take a gander at the NHL game vault and you will see.

Can you elaborate? Different viewers will likely come to different conclusions. You apparantly think his +/- is ********, and that he's been strong playing even strength?

 

[plusandminus]

ward and chimera were not facing the top offense of the opp and that says a lot. further they are a cycle line. oates desire for dump and chase allowed for that line to play defense in the offensive zone.

if phil kessel had been in ovechkin's slot -30 would have been possible.

ovechkin is not a -30 player. it was a combination of many things that created that. it was not an aberration and not a trend. he was not a big minus player before this past season and didn't suddenly become one.

people forget this also. ovechkin is a left wing. not a right wing. most of his quality play this past season came when he was skating on the left. it took the league more than half a regular season to adjust to ov on the right wing. when they did, they took advantage both ov's lack of experience on the right wing and his tendency to go left and oates lack of an answer for the change in defense of ov.

next season, 8 will go back to LW.

oh...one more thing. Next season he will no longer be a big minus player but will still be scoring 50 goals

Thank you for elaborating.

So the coach is to blame, for letting Ovie play right wing and for letting his line play a style not suited for him/them?
Is the coach kind of stupid or are there other explanations for his decisions?

Regarding those saying that Ovie had to face the opponents' best (offensive) players, Ovie's +/- is especially bad at home. So his coach intentionally let his line play the best opponents?

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

I'll throw this out there.

 

[plusandminus]

I'll throw this out there.

Interesting stat, but what's your point?

I can see that Ovie has the lowest "+/- relative to team" in the whole league, which I think is kind of bad rather than good?

He shoots a lot. But that's no surprise, considering how one-dimensional many finds him to be. If you (to exaggerate a lot) focus on shooting as many shots as possible, and scoring as many goals as possible, on the expence of other things - you'll get many shots on goal.

I haven't digged deep into Corsi, but does it really correspond very well to +/-?

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Interesting stat, but what's your point?

I can see that Ovie has the lowest "+/- relative to team" in the whole league, which I think is kind of bad rather than good?

He shoots a lot. But that's no surprise, considering how one-dimensional many finds him to be. If you (to exaggerate a lot) focus on shooting as many shots as possible, and scoring as many goals as possible, on the expence of other things - you'll get many shots on goal.

I haven't digged deep into Corsi, but does it really correspond very well to +/-?

The stat I was pointing out was PDO, which is basically a statistical measure of luck. Ovechkin had ridiculously bad luck last year, particularly on the offensive side but in his own end as well. With league average goaltending and league average shooting by him and his linemates, Ovie would've been very close to even for the year. Instead, his teammates shot at historically bad levels and the goaltending behind him was the worst of any Caps forward. Those are things outside of his control.

 

[plusandminus]

The stat I was pointing out was PDO, which is basically a statistical measure of luck. Ovechkin had ridiculously bad luck last year, particularly on the offensive side but in his own end as well. With league average goaltending and league average shooting by him and his linemates, Ovie would've been very close to even for the year. Instead, his teammates shot at historically bad levels and the goaltending behind him was the worst of any Caps forward. Those are things outside of his control.

OK. I add "bad luck" as another factor explaining Ovie's bad stats compared to his teammates.

With more luck, a better coach, and better defencemen, one wonder how good he would have done...

 

[txpd]

I think its best to consider that there were a combination of factors that came together to create a bad year on that level. I would be a mistake to look at the one season and pull out this one part of the game and then say its a realistic definition of Ovechkin's game.

Oates demanded that Ovechkin play both not in his natural lifelong position and a passive game that deemphasized the contact and forward momentum that he is used to.

Oates system demanded zone to zone, station to station play. Defensemen were neither allowed to skate the puck out of the zone nor pass it beyond the next closest player.

Backstrom did have a career worst even strength season. He has a fairly strong body of work in that area of the game up to that point. You have to either blame Ovechkin for that or consider that the same thing that negatively effected Backstrom also effected Ovechkin.

Was Ovechkin exposed? Sure. What about him was exposed? His lack of desire on defense or his lack of experience as a RW? This does not get enough attention. Oates forced him to RW and because he tore up a little over half of a season that was reduced to a little over a half, that move was considered successful.

Given a little off season time to study what Ov was doing on the RW, at least one oppo coach found a big hole in his game and the system he was playing and made an adjustment.

Starting this last season Ov still had less than a full season at RW after a lifetime of instincts born out of always playing LW. He was going to be mistake prone still. Oates didn't seem to have an answer for the league wide adjustment made against Ov on RW.

On that subject I suggest that Oates made Ov vulnerable, not the other way around.

 

[BobRouse]

In 05-06 Ovechkin was a +2 on a team that had a -69 team goal differential.

The next year Ovy was doing good before Hanlon installed the trap. He finished at -19

In the next 4 years under Boudreau he was a combined +105

Under Hunter and Oates the last 3 years he has been a -41.


That first year under Hanlon the Caps played a very offensively aggressive style and amped that with BB. In those 5 years he was a +107

Under Hanlon's trap, Hunter and Oates in 4 years he was a -60.

Japers rink did an article about Semin and Ovy vs the trap. Their numbers did not lie. Ovy is NOT as effective a player in a trapping scheme/Oates nebulous system.

 

[plusandminus]

In 05-06 Ovechkin was a +2 on a team that had a -69 team goal differential.

The next year Ovy was doing good before Hanlon installed the trap. He finished at -19

In the next 4 years under Boudreau he was a combined +105

Under Hunter and Oates the last 3 years he has been a -41.


That first year under Hanlon the Caps played a very offensively aggressive style and amped that with BB. In those 5 years he was a +107

Under Hanlon's trap, Hunter and Oates in 4 years he was a -60.

Japers rink did an article about Semin and Ovy vs the trap. Their numbers did not lie. Ovy is NOT as effective a player in a trapping scheme/Oates nebulous system.

Thank you for your explanation. And thank you to txpd too!

For a person who haven't followed the team much during the last seasons... When have Ovy played right wing? (When did it start?)

I think the coaching stats shows that Bodreaux made the team much better. I often think coaches are fired too early, and maybe it had been been better to wait for the down period (that lead to him being fired) to end, because things do go up and down. In the long run, his stats are great.

I also suspected that the absence of Semin hurt Ovy, and I still suppose it does although I understand Semin too had lesser successful time when playing for Washington.

 

[plusandminus]

Was Ovechkin exposed? Sure. What about him was exposed? His lack of desire on defense or his lack of experience as a RW? This does not get enough attention. Oates forced him to RW and because he tore up a little over half of a season that was reduced to a little over a half, that move was considered successful.

This part I don't understand. ?

As someone who doesn't follow the NHL as closely as I used to, Oates' coaching seems strange. You have the perhaps best scorer in the league, arguably he's even the best winger in the league, and you make him change position as well as playing style...

 

[Carlzner]

This part I don't understand. ?

As someone who doesn't follow the NHL as closely as I used to, Oates' coaching seems strange. You have the perhaps best scorer in the league, arguably he's even the best winger in the league, and you make him change position as well as playing style...

Correct.