Why are you better than a scout at drafting?

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Adding onto the OP’s comments, how many of you criticizing the pick have seen Tkachuk/Zadina play enough to be able to properly evaluate them??

 

[OttawaSenators11]

I am easily smarter than some scouts no question - Same goes for people on here that's just reality. You don't need to be working for a team to be deemed smarter that's non sense argument and always has been.

This isn't about Zadina/ Tkachuk debate just talking in general - Many non-scouts have been correct in calling out terrible picks from all teams.

 

[benjiv1]

Here’s the thing with the draft, I think the numbers were that 56% of players taken in the 1st Rd will play 250+games, and 22% in the 2nd Rd.

As a fan who considers himself fairly knowledgeable, I can recognize skill and certain player qualities that are desireable to teams. However, as I am not going out and watching every player in person, I can’t catch the little things that a scout can.

However, when you go and watch some of these kids in person, you can focus on a given player and see the little things a scout will pick up on, and see players that stand out compared to their peers.

The little things are what I think give an indication to scouts as to how their game is going to translate at the NHL level, which is something the average fan doesn’t get to see by just reading stat lines, or watching on TV.

So while in retrospect, a fan can identify players they like prior to the draft based on scouting reports and seeing them on tv, and those players can end up successful, their opinion has already been formed by the external coverage of that player, and therefore are just sort of cherry picking players that have already been identified as likely to be an NHLer.

Even with all of the scouting reports readily available, and $ invested in scouting, teams are still only hitting about 50% of the time in the first round.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

I am easily smarter than some scouts no question - Same goes for people on here that's just reality. You don't need to be working for a team to be deemed smarter that's non sense argument and always has been.

person B can can be a math teacher but i bet i am better than most teachers at math for example.

This isn't about Zadina/ Tkachuk debate just talking in general - Many non-scouts have been correct in calling out terrible picks from all teams.

But can you teach said math material to others and be good at it? That’s a skill in its own right.

 

[OttawaSenators11]

Adding onto the OP’s comments, how many of you criticizing the pick have seen Tkachuk/Zadina play enough to be able to properly evaluate them??

Doesn't matter if scout has watched more of a player they could still be incorrect.

 

[OttawaSenators11]

But can you teach said math material to others and be good at it? That’s a skill in its own right.

Yes, i think i could do the job better ! I am not trying to sound cocking or anything but i truly believe that ! I have a better job so never went that route.

 

[pt_mck]

I think scouts end up building emotional attachments to some players and it hampers their objectivity.

and fans don't?

 

[Icelevel]

I do a lot of calculating
Also I can see the future while I sleep. Pretty cool.

 

[NyQuil]

and fans don't?

I was just being snarky to counteract the snark in the OP's post.

 

[OttawaSenators11]

I do a lot of calculating
Also I can see the future while I sleep. Pretty cool.

You need to accept the fact that being a scout doesn't mean they are smarter than all hockey fan The argument is lazy and foolish. I mean proof is all over the place if you look for it.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

Yes, i think i could do the job better ! I am not trying to sound cocking or anything but i truly believe that ! I have a better job so never went that route.

Believe me, you are.

Pro scout, expert at math and at teaching, what can’t you do?

Gotta put your money where your mouth is my friend. Give me your picks for this draft once it ends, if you were a scout for Ottawa who you would have taken at each draft pick.

 

[OttawaSenators11]

Believe me, you are.

Pro scout, expert at math and at teaching, what can’t you do?

Gotta put your money where your mouth is my friend. Give me your picks for this draft once it ends, if you were a scout for Ottawa who you would have taken at each draft pick.

Very good at math yes i think could do better than some teachers for sure.
not a pro scout don't need to be to prove one made the wrong choice lol
fans on here have called out bad picks and they aren't pro scouts, that's just the reality.

No argument can be made it's not debatable

I'll post my picks after the draft i am 100% sure some of my choices will be better bookmark for shits and giggles

 

[Ice-Tray]

You could throw a dart at a draft board and land on some decent picks, the reality is that you won't find anyone willing to invest a dollar in your scouting, let alone millions.

It's just another example of the general arrogance that makes a type of person think they can do what other people can, with the same skill, because they watched a video. It's not that we haven't all thought this about something in an offhanded manner, but only a fool makes the argument publicly, thinking it actually has merit.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Oh geez, why could I do someone's job who makes a relatively meager salary and is performed by legions of white men with a history of brain trauma? I dunno watching hockey seems real hard.

Maybe because those brain damaged individuals have experience in the field and actually travel to go see these prospects play and most importantly practice. Also they get to talk to people who have seen them grow as individuals and hockey players.

The anger you direct towards our management has now officially crossed the line into comical.

 

[Mr Hat]

Why do people go on HF boards with this attitude? It you want to be a cheerleader without your own opinion I don't see the point on posting on a forum like this.

Lots of these "hockey people" say stupid shit and make bad decisions sometimes. Look at Beregevin and Chia for f***s sakes. They are HORRIBLE at their jobs. There are trash scouts too.

 

[thinkwild]

With a 56% chance of a 1st rounder panning out, Scouts are sure in a challenging field, trying to project before players have filled out. Not as tough a bar as hitters in baseball I guess who succeed if hitting over 30%.

I wonder if knowing that a player will be going to a hockey factory for some good development can be a deciding factor for scouts between two similar players. And having 2 players, ying and yang, developing together in a solid environment hopefully helps. Go Fighting Hawks.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

This should be helpful:

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819

Those links break down the probability of success by each draft pick/draft round. As the picks go by the probabilities drop off and get to a point where they are much less than random.

When the probability of success is so low, a random selection by a random fan might end up with a fairly close probability to that of the average performance of scouts.

I don't think there is any issue with being critical of the performance of scouts and having serious doubts about their effectiveness. The concern I have is when some fans think that they are not subject to the same probability of success and that they somehow have better predictive ability. There is a possibility that some fans may have an excellent eye for talent, but they are unlikely to track their own performance and statistically assess their success rate. What these fans will likely find is that they likely make as many bad choices as good ones if not more bad choices than good ones.

Another issue is that some fans look at upside but don't properly assess risk. The bust rate of prospects with high upside is fairly high and there may be as good a chance that a player doesn't play in the NHL as compared to being a superstar.

 

[aragorn]

I accept that this is a forum to express frustration with whatever the team does that they find unacceptable but at some point the players selected are part of the team we support & should be at the least given an opportunity to see if that choice was worth while. The choice of Tkachuk IMO was not about the amount of pots he will be able to produce but rather all of the intangibles that he will bring to the team to improve the room, to push certain players to be their best & reach their potential & to be the shit disturber on the ice that can turn games around & make this team a winner. Whether that is achieved or not remains to be seen for every team so I'm excited to see if these choices this weekend evolve & develop into real good players.

Just think of all the players over the yrs that we thought were sure fire NHL players who did not pan out & eventually ended up out of the league including numerous 1st rd picks. What is the point of drafting a high risk high reward guy if they end up not making it & the safe guy you missed plays for 10 yrs in the league. Sure high risk "MAY" reach their potential but they may not, look at Yakopov & how many people wanted him, now he is an after thought at best. There are tons of examples including guys thought to be safe that were not, it's an educated guess at best.

 

[Dino Tkachuk]

I think scouts end up building emotional attachments to some players and it hampers their objectivity.

Scouts do this!!?? ....and fans on a message board don't?

 

[starling]

Honestly I don't know shit about prospects but I compare the pick to rankings of half a dozen professional scouting organizations and if I see a massive reach then probably it's the understaffed scouting department of a cash-strapped team that's going for intangibles and overthinking their pick here.

 

[albator71]

I'm not saying I'm better than them but I have my opinions, just like they do.

Yeah but their opinion counts, your doesn't
You have the right to have an opinion about players and all that, but it doesnt matter what you think or what i think because we are not the ones making the decision. They are, but of course you have the right disagree with them

 

[PatrickEaves]

Meh, I make mistakes too. But sometimes I'm right.

I remember being super pissed at Jack Skille being picked 2 picks before our pick in the 2005 draft (probably the biggest miss I've had in terms of personal projections on players I love). I also didn't like the Cody Ceci pick when most of the board loved him.

The beauty of a forum is that we are all allowed opinions.

 

[Senateurs]

I'm no scout but our record drafting USHL, JR tier or US HS players in rounds 2-4 tells me we should focus more on CHL players or Europeans. If you want to roll the dice in 7th round on a kid from Massachusset High school that's fine but rounds 2-4 are too important for craps shoot. CHL is the best.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Meh, I make mistakes too. But sometimes I'm right.

I remember being super pissed at Jack Skille being picked 2 picks before our pick in the 2005 draft (probably the biggest miss I've had in terms of personal projections on players I love). I also didn't like the Cody Ceci pick when most of the board loved him.

The beauty of a forum is that we are all allowed opinions.

I think the issue is less about trying to stifle people's ability to have/'voice' opinions, and a lot more about understanding that with zero methods of verification, opinions generally based on other people's scouting reports and videos, and no responsibilities on the line, that people shouldn't expect other fans to put (any) stock in the opinions floated in here.

Opinions are like assholes, everybody's got one...

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Its no different than GM's. Just because they're pros doesnt mean they're not quite often wrong in their assessments. Are you telling me that some of us couldn't have done a better job than say John Feguson Jr. for example? I dont buy that.