Who would you rather the Flyers sign

[The Madrigal]

A couple of things.

1. This is a hypothetical exercise, so you have to choose one of the three. If you don't want any of them, fine, but pick the one you would prefer.

2. This should be based on age, how they fit with the Flyers, and most importantly what type of term and aav on their contract you expect them to get. So this isn't who do you think is the best player. Nobody knows what any of these three players will ultimately sign for, but I think it's safe to say we all have a pretty good idea.

Matt Duchene
5'11
195
28 years old

Last three seasons
70 points / 56 ES / 55 percent fw's
59 points / 46 ES / 54 percent fw's
41 points / 31 ES / 62 percent fw's
Average - 57 points / 44 ES / 57 percent fw's

Kevin Hayes
6'5
216
26 years old

Last three seasons
54 points / 40 ES / 49 percent fw's
44 points / 34 ES / 50 percent fw's
49 points / 35 ES / 45 percent fw's
Average - 49 points / 36 ES / 48 percent fw's

Brock Nelson
6'3
212
27 years old

Last three seasons
53 points / 44 ES / 47 percent fw's
35 points / 27 ES / 48 percent fw's
45 points / 38 ES / 43 percent fw's
Average - 44 points / 36 ES / 46 percent fw's

Click to read more...

 

[The Madrigal]

I used to think this was a slam dunk for Duchene. After taking a closer look at things I'm not so sure. Before this year where Duchene had 70 points, he had 59, 41, 59, and 55 the four prior. His last season with 70 or more points was back in 13-14 with exactly 70. So I guess the big question with Duchene is, are you getting the 55-60 point guy, or the 70 point guy. On this team, I would expect him to be more in the 50-60 point range. Not sure I want to invest 6 or 7 years and 6-8 million per in a guy like that. Maybe it doesn't cost that much but I suspect it will.

When it comes to Hayes or Nelson it's pretty close. Both produce roughly the same numbers, with a slight edge to Hayes. Hayes will turn 27 before free agency opens, and Nelson will turn 28 in October so age is pretty much the same. Both have and can play wing, with Nelson at LW, and Hayes at RW. Ultimately I would give Hayes the slight advantage for a few reasons.

-He is a little bit more productive offensively
-He is a little bit better on face offs
-He is a little bit younger
-I would prefer a RW/C to a LW/C with what the Flyers have now and coming soon
-Hayes has a history of playing with AV

So for me it comes down to Duchene or Hayes and this question. Do I want to invest something like 7 years/50 million in Duchene, or something like 5 years/25 million in Hayes. As much I would prefer Duchene the player, I'm just not sold that he is the type of guy you invest that type of contract in.

I would prefer to go that trade route with Kadri or someone like him who has 3 or 4 years left on his deal at under 5 million per. That being said, if I'm choosing between these three in free agency I would go Hayes. Nelson, then Duchene last which is a big change from my previous stance. Again, if Duchene gets the type of contract I expect him to get I don't see him as that elite difference maker who you invest that much in.

 

[The Madrigal]

According to the opinion of the main board Duchene will probably get 8, possibly even 9 million per year. No F'N way would I sign Duchene for that much.

 

[ItMe]

According to the opinion of the main board Duchene will probably get 8, possibly even 9 million per year. No F'N way would I sign Duchene for that much.

Duchene, who I would love to see on the Flyers, and as you said, will cost way too much money. Give me Pavelski for a year or two. The guy just gets points, good on the faceoffs, would be cheaper, and is a true stop gap. His age is a little risky, but we don't someone to grow with the team. His leadership would be huge as well.

Giroux - Couturier - Konecny
JVR/Lindblom - Pavelski - Voracek

I'll take that top 6

 

[Ruck Over]

Much like the draft, best player available. While I'm not wild about any of them, Duchene is clearly a better player, and that's who I target. The Flyers are not one player away, with a finishing touch like Hayes or Nelson. However, with Duchene in the mix, the Flyers are realistically one player away from serious competition for a title (pending our players don't fall off and Hart is legit.)

The money isn't ideal with any of them.

Preference:
Kadri, Pavelski, Carter > Duchene, Hayes, Nelson

 

[TheKingPin]

Duchenes price keeps going up, or at least isn’t going down. If we can afford it we should go for it. He may be even more costly in a more typical year that doesn’t have bigger guys out there like Panarin. Time to capitalize. It’s a lot of money for not that many pts but 9 mill is the new 6 mill. Plus he has a better pts per game than what was shown above. Adding Frost, Duchene, and maybe Trouba would be great. And it would keep being great for a number of years.

 

[PhlthyRich]

I think Hayes is the easiest and likeliest to get when considering the 3 guys. I really think Preds (after moving some pieces), Habs or Blue Jackets will do whatever they can to sign Duchene; especially Blue Jackets after his impact in these playoffs. I think Nelson stays in NY. But Hayes has the connection to AV and is an East coast guy. I think Flyers and him are a good fit for eachother

 

[VladDrag]

you have to choose one of the three.

No I don't.

 

[The Madrigal]

I think Hayes is the easiest and likeliest to get when considering the 3 guys. I really think Preds (after moving some pieces), Habs or Blue Jackets will do whatever they can to sign Duchene; especially Blue Jackets after his impact in these playoffs. I think Nelson stays in NY. But Hayes has the connection to AV and is an East coast guy. I think Flyers and him are a good fit for eachother

Agreed

 

[The Madrigal]

No I don't.

Then shutty and dont participate in the thread/discussion.

 

[tucson83]

hayes, you have a big size advantage when it comes to faceoffs plus he played for av which he fits in his system.

 

[deadhead]

If I can get Hayes for 3 years, I'd prefer him over Duchene for 7 years, $63M which I think some team will give him over his playoff performance (recency bias). Problem with Duchene is at his best, he's a 1C, but that's 2 years of a 10 year career, at his worst, a 4C. I'm always wary of guys who have career years going into free agency. Pay them and how hard will they play? Intangibles matter.

I wouldn't give Hayes five years, and I wouldn't touch Nelson at all, another career year going into FA after three seasons of mediocrity.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Duchene is getting 9 mil a year for probably 6 years at 28yo, especially with this postseason hes had. His production does not warrant that. AT ALL.

Hayes is younger, more suited for a 2C role (he can play center or wing), aggressive/cerebral forechecker that will give us some grit to go along with being a playdriver, and will be more along the 6 year 6-7 mil price.

Hayes by a mile. The board is letting name value cloud their judgement. This is such an easy pick.

Duchene at -3.4 CFrel while with CBJ in regular season despite 68% OZst. C'mon now. You don't pay a 50pt player 9mil a year. He had one elite year in 2013-14 and has been an average 2C every other year.

 

[tucson83]

Duchene is getting 9 mil a year for probably 6 years at 28yo, especially with this postseason hes had. His production does not warrant that. AT ALL.

Hayes is younger, more suited for a 2C role (he can play center or wing), aggressive/cerebral forechecker that will give us some grit to go along with being a playdriver, and will be more along the 6 year 6-7 mil price.

Hayes by a mile. The board is letting name value cloud their judgement. This is such an easy pick.

Duchene at -3.4 CFrel while with CBJ in regular season despite 68% OZst. C'mon now. You don't pay a 50pt player 9mil a year. He had one elite year in 2013-14 and has been an average 2C every other year.

hayes has great size, another advantage this team can have especially on the pp.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

None, all 3 are poster child for mistake contract

 

[SnS]

I love Duchene as much as the next person. But I don’t think he is worth the 8+ he’s going to get.

So, I’d probably say none of the above.

 

[Ruck Over]

None, all 3 are poster child for mistake contract

That's not an option though, although it is the correct taek.

 

[Beef Invictus]

According to the opinion of the main board Duchene will probably get 8, possibly even 9 million per year. No F'N way would I sign Duchene for that much.

If he's getting 8 I hope it's from someone else.

 

[deadhead]

I'd pay Duchene 5x8 in a heartbeat, but not 7x9.

For one thing, in two years it's 3x8, retain 2M and he's easily moved if there's a logjam or cap squeeze.

 

[tucson83]

I love Duchene as much as the next person. But I don’t think he is worth the 8+ he’s going to get.

So, I’d probably say none of the above.

you want to stick with patrick as 2c?

 

[TheKingPin]

Idk about Hayes. He’s been scored over 50
Pts. Got sat in the playoffs. If his contract is that much better than I’d be ok with it I guess.

Plus he looks like wiese

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I think I’d suck it up & pay up for Duchene.

 

[baudib1]

I really don't think Hayes or Nelson are an upgrade over Frost by 2021 and maybe not even next year. So pass on both of them.

Duchene is a fine player. He's the only one of the three who makes the Flyers appreciably better over the next three years. Not sure I want him 5-7 years out but he could age well. I'd still rather roll with Patrick/Frost next year and put the money elsewhere -- that includes sitting on it for a year and making a move for a better player down the line.

 

[46zone]

I really don't think Hayes or Nelson are an upgrade over Frost by 2021 and maybe not even next year. So pass on both of them.

Duchene is a fine player. He's the only one of the three who makes the Flyers appreciably better over the next three years. Not sure I want him 5-7 years out but he could age well. I'd still rather roll with Patrick/Frost next year and put the money elsewhere -- that includes sitting on it for a year and making a move for a better player down the line.

I think Nelson and Hayes are good players overall, though I'd prefer the Flyers to pass on giving them long term deals. That said, I find it highly unlikely that Frost will outproduce either one of them his rookie year or even his second year. Nelson & Hayes have outproduced Patrick with ease during both his seasons, and he is a young player of much higher pedigree than Frost.

Personally I'd be fine with either on 3 year deals, but they'll likely get 5-6 year offers elsewhere.

 

[deadhead]

Patrick also started at 19, coming off two summers when he couldn't work out.
Frost will start at 20, coming off a dominant CHL season.