Who would win a 7 game playoff series Leafs or Oilers?

[Fourier]

This is funny. A team that never even makes the playoffs, is a complete mess, not really any good at forward, d, goaltending, or anything, vs a team thats finished top 10 in the NHL every year for a few years now.

The leafs. Probably 4 games.

Lets see how the forwards play out here. Take the two teams top 12 forwards pointwise and here is what you get:

Oilers GP 692 G 205 A 286 Pts 491

Leafs GP 694 G 203 A 260 Pts 463

If you weight this by games played for each player the totals are:

Oilers 3.49 g/gm 4.83 a/gm 8.32 pts/g

Leafs 3.37 g/gm 4.42 a/gm 7.79 pts/gm

If the playoffs started tomorrow here are the defenses:

Klefbom Larsson
Nurse Bear
Russell/Jones Benning/Green

Rielly Ceci
Muzzin Holl
Dermott Barrie

This is not exactly an advantage to either team but I'd take the Oilers.

Andersen at his very best is the best goalie on either team. This year's version of Andersen I would not trade for either Koskinen who was great in the second half or Smith. Campbell is a decent back-up but even with his strong play since going to the Leafs, the Oilers goalies have significantly outplayed the Leafs goalies in the second half. The Oilers have given up fewer goals on the season 251 vs 222 and since January 82 vs 92. So yes it does seem that it would be funny to expect the Oilers t hang with the Leafs.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Lets see how the forwards play out here. Take the two teams top 12 forwards pointwise and here is what you get:

Oilers GP 692 G 205 A 286 Pts 491

Leafs GP 694 G 203 A 260 Pts 463

If you weight this by games played for each player the totals are:

Oilers 3.49 g/gm 4.83 a/gm 8.32 pts/g

Leafs 3.37 g/gm 4.42 a/gm 7.79 pts/gm.

What an odd way of looking at things.

 

[Coffey]

i was being sarcastic.

Leafs jokes.

 

[Fourier]

What an odd way of looking at things.

So tell me. How do you counter a claim like the one I quoted? Specifically that one of the two teams does not have good forwards, with the implicit claim that the other does. There are lots of ways one could do so. BUt why waste a lot of time doing a deep analysis to disprove a claim that is obviously false. While there is obviously more to being a "good forward" than scoring the number of points a player gets is often a proxy for quality for forwards in many peoples minds on these boards. So to counter such a claim one of the most simplistic way to do so is to simply count the cumulative points the players generate. In this case what we typically see is the premise is that the Oilers are a two man team and nobody else ever scores so a "deep" team like the Leafs will obviously see their forwards outscore the Oilers on whole. And while there have been times when that was almost true, this has not been the case for at least the second half of the season.

It seems that even if an Oiler fan chooses to believe the Oilers win this I don't see any who feel it is one sided. Most I believe would admit that the Oilers have holes. My posts in this thread have all been in response to certain Leaf fans ( and I am not painting all Leaf fans with this brush) who claim that this is indeed a one sided debate, that the Leafs are by far the better team for reason XXX or Reason YYY. In all cases, these claims are without any real evidence in support of the claim. So while I agree that the stats I posted are not definitive proof of the Oilers forwards being superior, (that was not my intention) what they do show is that even if you go far down into each team's roster the production from the Oilers forwards does not drop nearly as much as many think. of course one can argue that many of the depth players benefit from playing with McDavid and Draisaitlat times but that is also true for guys like Hyman whose numbers are buoyed by who he plays with. It's also worth noting that this is not explicitly a criticism of Hyman. Not everyone succeeds with skill despite what many believe. The numbers he puts up, like those of Kassian on the Oilers, are a result of his ability to actually complement talent which is a valuable attribute.

So for the third time in just a few pages I will say that these are two teams with great players and significant flaws. Nether team should be viewed as having a significant advantage over the other.

 

[Varan]

Higher-end talent vs. depth

Who wins 99%?

If this was basketball, the answer is different

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Keefe has a way better track record that goes back to Pembroke not just in the AHL. Everywhere he goes he wins, very different situations. But thats not my argument. Tippett has an ok track record in the NHL, were not talking about a Bowman, Quenneville etc. From a fans perspective you dont really know this to be a fact who is a better coach than who. Compare rosters etc but you cant quantify something you dont know about.

I mean leaf fans insisted they had the coaching advatage for years with Babcock ad they were't in the room.

But looked how that turned out.

 

[MessierII]

Higher-end talent vs. depth

Who wins 99%?

If this was basketball, the answer is different

Historically high end talent. Very few of the all time greats have not won cups and even those who haven’t have been to the finals a couple of times.

 

[rent free]

Historically high end talent. Very few of the all time greats have not won cups and even those who haven’t have been to the finals a couple of times.

Teams that have no depth don't win

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

This series could really go either way. Anyone giving a definitive answer to one side is being biased.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

This series could really go either way. Anyone giving a definitive answer to one side is being biased.

Agreed. Pretty much a coin flip. I went Oilers because of McDavid and Drai and their top special teams. But so many variables like injuries, which goalie gets hot etc.