Who is this season’s MVP?

[MoeBartoli]

So who does Dom think our MVP is?

Supposedly here is the page where some of that info is, but it's paywalled for me.

He really doesn’t address that in his approach. Rather it’s using his model to determine category metrics and in turn formulate a “market value” relative to the metrics of other players of that position. As to the values, here’s his top “market values” for Jackets players:
Bjorkstrand $7.8M
Werenski. $6.3M
Voracek. $6.1M
Laine. $4.7M
Jenner. $3.6M

 

[majormajor]

He really doesn’t address that in his approach. Rather it’s using his model to determine category metrics and in turn formulate a “market value” relative to the metrics of other players of that position. As to the values, here’s his top “market values” for Jackets players:
Bjorkstrand $7.8M
Werenski. $6.3M
Voracek. $6.1M
Laine. $4.7M
Jenner. $3.6M

I appreciate the consistency of the method but it ends up looking pretty silly for the Jackets. From those values you'd expect this to be the worst team in the league, but the model isn't capable of appreciating a team that is built to outperform their xGF%.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

So who does Dom think our MVP is?

Supposedly here is the page where some of that info is, but it's paywalled for me.

Holy shit Laine has to have one of the worst defensive numbers in the league

 

[majormajor]

Holy shit Laine has to have one of the worst defensive numbers in the league

Well he has the worst xGF% on the team. The Jackets don't get a lot of offensive zone time with Laine. A lot of one and done rush plays. Which is of course fine if the puck goes in, which it did for a couple months.

xGF% always seems to be the main determinant in these models. There is some small adjustment for shooter talent but the model can't seem to make sense of someone like Laine.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Well he has the worst xGF% on the team. The Jackets don't get a lot of offensive zone time with Laine. A lot of one and done rush plays. Which is of course fine if the puck goes in, which it did for a couple months.

xGF% always seems to be the main determinant in these models. There is some small adjustment for shooter talent but the model can't seem to make sense of someone like Laine.

I feel like my eyes don’t deceive me as much as the stats say. I’m not trying to say Laine is a great defender or close to it. And I’m not trying to suggest that just because he back checks pretty well doesn’t mean he’s good once the cycle gets started. But damn. He needs to improve in his defensive end.

He’s still young and can improve in so many areas but even with his incredible hot steaks I am a bit hesitant on giving him 9+ million per year

 

[majormajor]

I feel like my eyes don’t deceive me as much as the stats say. I’m not trying to say Laine is a great defender or close to it. And I’m not trying to suggest that just because he back checks pretty well doesn’t mean he’s good once the cycle gets started. But damn. He needs to improve in his defensive end.

He’s still young and can improve in so many areas but even with his incredible hot steaks I am a bit hesitant on giving him 9+ million per year

I think the issue is more in the offensive end than defensive, that's where I suspect the lack of possession is coming from.

Yeah the contract stuff makes me nervous. I'm at the point where I just hope they can come up with a reasonable contract, hopefully starting with the number 8 and saving a little room in case we can add more high end forwards. We need to keep him but we're taking a huge risk if we put all of our eggs in the Laine basket.

 

[Shaibu]

Captain Boone Jenner.

 

[NotCommitted]

Honestly, this was the season that made me lose all faith in xG metrics for judging individual players or at least certain type of individual players. Like sure, I always knew that someone like Laine will outperform his underlying metrics. And while I know eye test can be deceiving, but if you check out Laine xGF & xGA this season and last season and go by that alone, you'd think nothing changed with his game. Then maybe you'd look at point totals and go "ok, he's just shooting better while being completely useless at anything else". Having watched the games, I don't think that is accurate at all.

 

[majormajor]

Honestly, this was the season that made me lose all faith in xG metrics for judging individual players or at least certain type of individual players. Like sure, I always knew that someone like Laine will outperform his underlying metrics. And while I know eye test can be deceiving, but if you check out Laine xGF & xGA this season and last season and go by that alone, you'd think nothing changed with his game. Then maybe you'd look at point totals and go "ok, he's just shooting better while being completely useless at anything else". Having watched the games, I don't think that is accurate at all.

In terms of a player like Laine's overall value, I think it is fair to say that the stat doesn't tell you much.

But there are reasons why he is persistently low on the xG scale, and I think that's interesting. Some of those reasons are just where the stat misses on the player type. He shoots from distance because he can score from there. But in some ways it points to things he could improve. We've talked a lot about his puck management, which seems to have improved greatly.

Another thing I'll point to is the offensive zone retrievals. One and done rush play is going to lead to less possession. The best corsi and xG type of players are the Bergeron's and Crosby's that shoot and then go get the puck and start cycling until they can shoot again. The other team doesn't get the puck back.

 

[VT]

Laine. No doubt. He is best offensive player what CBJ has ever had with Nash and Panarin. And CBJ gets much more screentime in different social media channel sometimew cause his outfit or things he say or just hattrick. Rest of top 5 Jenner, Voracek, Sillinger, Boqvist

Correct me if I'm wrong. It's understandable that players are not robots, but in that case real leader has to fight more, be great without the puck, have good forechecking and backchecking. Did Laine play like that?

 

[NotCommitted]

Correct me if I'm wrong. It's understandable that players are not robots, but in that case real leader has to fight more, be great without the puck, have good forechecking and backchecking. Did Laine play like that?

Personally I have a hard time finding much to criticize about his game this season, unless he totally falls off a cliff during this remaning garbage time. He's played best-on-best in the 1st line most games and they've managed to play 50-50 hockey, which is a great accomplishment if you look at the 1st lines on paper. He was the single biggest reason they managed to make any kind of push at catching Washington - since he came back from injury and got back to game speed, he went lights out for 2 months to give them any kind of chance. He was the offensive driver for his line and IMO his two-way effort has been commendable for a player also leading his team in scoring despite missing almost quarter of the season.

With the Jenner injury the situation in 1st line got way more difficult and by TDL it was clear there was no way they were going to make the playoffs. Like you said the players are not robots and I think it's fair to say after you make a great effort at accomplishing something and fail, it might take the wind out of your sails. That said he needs to bounce back, they might have nothing besides a draft pick on the line, but it would be important to show people he can show up every night and be the best player on the ice, or one of, no matter the circumstances and build on the positivity he got with the fanbase.

 

[koteka]

I have decided that the MVP is Seth Jones. For being upfront about his desire to test free agency so we could shop him around and make a fantastic trade.