Yes it is a straw man argument because I never argued that "proven > not proven". My whole point - and you quoted it - is that degree of success at the NHL is an important element in evaluating a prospect. Further, I am arguing that it is being underrated by some here, and that a prospect's pie-in-the-sky ceiling of what he might become in some imagined future world is being overrated. Regardless, by purporting to disprove an argument I never made, you have committed a straw man, quintessentially. Clear enough?
Obviously not clear, since your first post on the subject was
Facepalm at this entire thread. If Schroeder is still a prospect, he or Horvat is #1 simply by virtue of his having shown he can hang in the NHL. Ranking Hunter Shinkaruk higher when he weighs 173 pounds and is probably 2 years away if he ever even makes it to the show higher is a hilarious example of "OOOOOH EXCITING! SHINY NEW THINGS!"
Not much substance there, and about all one can glean from it is that you have a belief that the "Virtue of his [JS] having shown he can hang in the NHL" > anything anyone can say about Hunter Shinkaruk.
Even with that said, you simply cannot come up with an extreme example like "first overall pick with no NHL games is a better prospect than a guy who's had 3 years in the NHL and hasn't been able to stick" and use it as a comparable. For me, the closer comparable is Brodin vs Murray (or closer still, Brodin vs. one of the top defensemen taken in this draft). Either way, I take Brodin. But regardless of what analogy you want to use, it's debatable how close it is to a Schroder / Hunter situation and it certainly can't PROVE anything. Acting like you've just come up with some sort of hockey equivalent of a modal logic proof is absurd.
In response to your original post, yes it was a modal logic proof. Finding one exception is sufficient to disprove the rule and from there we can move on to debating the actual player merits, which you seem to be doing only now.
I feel like we're just going to have to disagree on this whole issue, but I maintain that the weighting of attributes that's being undertaken in this poll is skewed as a result of rose-coloured glasses. I'd rather have that dollar in my pocket - there's a reason they call the lottery the "idiot tax".
That is fine. The ideal weighting of "upside" and "performance" is tremendously subjective and I neither expect nor care if we agree on it. So long as we agree that it isn't 100% "performance" - which was my only contention way back with your first post - and that "upside" ranks in there at some degree, then we can leave it at that. I've debated the Schroeder-upside topic ad naseum with other posters and am now at a point where I prefer to simply see if he moves ahead or not, rather than bash it around further.