Context.
Nathan Mackinnon:
- 525 GP, 190 goals, 0.36 GPG.
- 1896 shots, 3.6 shots per game, S% 10.0.
Connor McDavid
- 351 GP, 162 goals, 0.46 GPG.
- 1082 shots, 3.1 shots per game, S% 15.0.
So Mac shoots more per game, scores less per game. McDavids S% is 50% higher than Mack. A 10% shot is right around league average, while 15% is quite high.
I don't know if either one is a better goal scorer than the other really. I mean since Mack broke out him and McDavid have been 40 goal scorers and the difference between them in the last 3 seasons isn't huge at all:MacKinnon has a stronger shot yet McDavid will score more goals because there's more to goalscoring than sniping.
They way you posed the question guarantees MacKinnon will win. If you had asked "who is the better goal scorer" things would be different.
MacKinnon looks way cooler when he's shooting the puck but McDavid does a much better job of actually scoring on the shots he takes.
Shooting percentage alone doesn't really equate to a better shot unless the two players are shooting in very similar circumstances though.
I'm not using shooting percentage alone; McDavid beats him in shooting percent above expected by every model I've looked at.
because it takes into account how many goals he'd score if he were an average shooter based on where he shoots from on the ice, and he outperforms that numberAnd this equates to him having a better shot how? What if he’s simply better at getting into position/using his speed to get into better positions to score? I’m not sure how purely looking at statistical models helps in this context.
And this equates to him having a better shot how? What if he’s simply better at getting into position/using his speed to get into better positions to score? I’m not sure how purely looking at statistical models helps in this context.
It helps because these models account for how good the position he is in to score is.
because it takes into account how many goals he'd score if he were an average shooter based on where he shoots from on the ice, and he outperforms that number