Who do you want after Hanifin

[Fourier]

what's stopping him? Why is it out of the realm of possibility?

What is stopping any prospect from not signing? CHL players can go back in the draft after 2 years and then are UFA's after 4. Maybe McDavid will decide he only wants to play in Toronto so he plays two more years in Erie and then goes to the CIS for two years. Better not take the chance.

The real answer is that it is a huge financial risk. At best he loses 3 years of an NHL deal. Instead of signing his second contract with four years left until he is a UFA he would be on an ELC with 7 years until he is a UFA. He would get the same deal on his ELC regardless of when he signed it.

At worst he gets hurt playing in college and ends up making no money at all.

 

[McGoMcD]

These are PRECISELY the same overhyped comments that were made about J Schultz, an absolute trainwreck of a D. While this thread is all about comparisons. Its why comparisons, subjective descriptions, have very little value. The average scouting report contains descriptions that are inherently subjective. NHL scouting remains largely in the dark ages in one of the most traditionalist of pro sports.

Again we don't need another young prospect shrinking violet that's going to take 3-4yrs to adjust to NHL game to even make an impact. The rebuild will be completely shot by then if it isn't already now.

We need competent, veteran D now.

Frankly Petry, who we gave away has imminently more present value than any D we draft right now.

So why, dare I ask, aren't you out there some where bringing light to the NHL scouting system?

ps, when you hear stuff like he has excellent mobility and gap control it isn't all that subjective. It is a fairly well understood concept, you can rank skating ability and gap control fairly well.

 

[McDeathbyCheerios*]

Schultz looked great in his first pro year then got Eakins and went to ****.

People keep saying we need shut down d after shutdown d. One of our biggest problems is our d can't make a pass and we have some of the lowest d man scoring in the league. Good offensive d are valuable because the more often you have the puck the less you are hemmed in your own end.

Nurse is the big physical shut down d we need

 

[Canovin]

Schultz looked great in his first pro year then got Eakins and went to ****.

People keep saying we need shut down d after shutdown d. One of our biggest problems is our d can't make a pass and we have some of the lowest d man scoring in the league. Good offensive d are valuable because the more often you have the puck the less you are hemmed in your own end.

Nurse is the big physical shut down d we need

This. Good offense(offensive d-man) is also good defense. I know McDavid is not a defenseman but one of the reason his +/- is so high is because the puck is always on his stick. Even when he loses the puck, he retrieves it.

 

[Approved Variety]

Puck moving, skating, and decision making for a defenseman > scoring points themselves.

If you could clone one dman we have right now, it would be Klefbom not Schultz. Nurse is the same...May not score 20 goals, but he moves the puck from zone to zone incredibly well. Same for Hanifin. Those are the types we need. Doughty isn't going to win Norris because the league only cares about boxcars...but he's a more valuable guy to his team than many purely offensive D. We need those guys.

And you want a Schultz, too. One of them. Not a handful of them.

 

[Replacement*]

So why, dare I ask, aren't you our there some where bringing light to the NHL scouting system?

ps, when you hear stuff like he has excellent mobility and gap control it isn't all that subjective. It is a fairly well understood concept, you can rank skating ability and gap control fairly well.

Actually its highly subjected and 100 people in the room would have 50 different things to say because for one human minds and memories are susceptible to remembering select instances. Also very subjective to Cognitive dissonance and established bias. The human species in general does not view the world objectively. The world reveals this to us every day.

Just weeks ago the general consensus here on hf was that Yak was unskilled, couldn't skate, couldn't separate, couldn't control puck and never could and that he was overrated and never should have been picked. it was all malarkey but wiith people actually stathing shorcomings and citing past scouting reports that questioned the pick and the player.

The world is full of distortion, we all add to it myself included.

 

[Zaddy]

Puck moving, skating, and decision making for a defenseman > scoring points themselves.

If you could clone one dman we have right now, it would be Klefbom not Schultz. Nurse is the same...May not score 20 goals, but he moves the puck from zone to zone incredibly well. Same for Hanifin. Those are the types we need. Doughty isn't going to win Norris because the league only cares about boxcars...but he's a more valuable guy to his team than many purely offensive D. We need those guys.

And you want a Schultz, too. One of them. Not a handful of them.

Which is why I like Thomas Chabot so much. Those guys really help your team win. I would consider trading up for him with PIT's pick if possible. LHD or not, he's going to be a very good player down the road. Being able to maintain puck possession is so important in todays game.

 

[McArthur]

What is stopping any prospect from not signing? CHL players can go back in the draft after 2 years and then are UFA's after 4. Maybe McDavid will decide he only wants to play in Toronto so he plays two more years in Erie and then goes to the CIS for two years. Better not take the chance.

The real answer is that it is a huge financial risk. At best he loses 3 years of an NHL deal. Instead of signing his second contract with four years left until he is a UFA he would be on an ELC with 7 years until he is a UFA. He would get the same deal on his ELC regardless of when he signed it.

At worst he gets hurt playing in college and ends up making no money at all.

I only bring it up because of all the UFA college kids being signed these days. almost like its becoming a trend. Justin Schultz, Jake Gardiner, Danny Dekeyser... Matt O'Conner(who wasn't drafted). the ELC is what? .875 + signing bonus + playing bonuses that are capped? For a total of what? 6-7 million over 3 years. Does that sound about right to you???

vs.

holding out, losing 6-7 million to sign on a team that would nourish your career. and walk away with a career after hockey.... how much money would Justin Schultz be asking for if he had spent the last 3 years playing for Detroit/NYR/San Jose/Nashville/St. Louis/Anahiem playing 22 minutes a game(this season). Instead will probably have to go to arbitration to get 4mil/year.

Interesting note though....

Jeff Petry has no points and is on pace to have the same +/- on a much better hockey club.

 

[McGoMcD]

Actually its highly subjected and 100 people in the room would have 50 different things to say because for one human minds and memories are susceptible to remembering select instances. Also very subjective to Cognitive dissonance and established bias. The human species in general does not view the world objectively. The world reveals this to us every day.

Just weeks ago the general consensus here on hf was that Yak was unskilled, couldn't skate, couldn't separate, couldn't control puck and never could and that he was overrated and never should have been picked. it was all malarkey but wiith people actually stathing shorcomings and citing past scouting reports that questioned the pick and the player.

The world is full of distortion, we all add to it myself included.

This is true, but talk about pessimism lol. Sure people some biases but many balance out across many opinions. You are over blowing things big time. In general scouts get it right, I mean the world you live in the worst players would get drafted 1st, clearly they know more than you give them credit for. You see the world a little to black and white.

The world is full of distortions, but noise balances out in many cases. You dont' give people enough credit.

ps, the law of large numbers suggest distortions or bias cancel, not add up.

Yak had many supporters on HF even months ago.

 

[McArthur]

Puck moving, skating, and decision making for a defenseman > scoring points themselves.

If you could clone one dman we have right now, it would be Klefbom not Schultz. Nurse is the same...May not score 20 goals, but he moves the puck from zone to zone incredibly well. Same for Hanifin. Those are the types we need. Doughty isn't going to win Norris because the league only cares about boxcars...but he's a more valuable guy to his team than many purely offensive D. We need those guys.

And you want a Schultz, too. One of them. Not a handful of them.

We need guys that can retrieve pucks early in our own zone. and at the very least, if need be, kill the clock in the neutral zone at our blue line. better yet, the oppositions blue line. The last thing we need is more turnovers by defensemen in the d-zone or neutral zone. So what puts them further out of position on a turnover? skating it up? or passing it? Don't get me wrong, its easier to possess if its on your stick. but if the defenseman turns it over, the risk is much higher. we don't need to jump up on the rush on every line.

our goals against is the worst in the league. getting the puck out alone will generate more offense.

on a per/game basis, Klefbom and Nikitin have the worst +/- moving into next year (aside from Oesterle who isn't making the team.)

Pinizzotto(18gp) Aulie(23gp), and Pouliot(50gp) are the only plus players on the season.

 

[Fourier]

I only bring it up because of all the UFA college kids being signed these days. almost like its becoming a trend. Justin Schultz, Jake Gardiner, Danny Dekeyser... Matt O'Conner(who wasn't drafted). the ELC is what? .875 + signing bonus + playing bonuses that are capped? For a total of what? 6-7 million over 3 years. Does that sound about right to you???

vs.

holding out, losing 6-7 million to sign on a team that would nourish your career. and walk away with a career after hockey.... how much money would Justin Schultz be asking for if he had spent the last 3 years playing for Detroit/NYR/San Jose/Nashville/St. Louis/Anahiem playing 22 minutes a game(this season). Instead will probably have to go to arbitration to get 4mil/year.

Interesting note though....

Jeff Petry has no points and is on pace to have the same +/- on a much better hockey club.

Of the guys you list only Schultz signed as a UFA after being drafted. His situation is actually very rare. Gardiner was drafted by Anaheim and traded to Toronto. He signed an ELC not as a free agent but as Toronto property. Dekeyser and Matt O'Conner were never drafted so they were UFA's because of that.

Schultz and Hanifin are very different cases. Schultz had no chance to be in the NHL at 18. Hanifin will be for sure if he wants to. Here are the two scenarios,

1) He signs and ELC at 18 and three years later he is looking at his 2nd contract. His ELC will pay him $925K plus near maximum bonuses. There is a good chance that he hits his fullschedule A bonuses each year. 3 years in he has made conservatively $5M but it could be higher. If he plays like he is expected you are probably looking at $5M plus on his second deal with only 4 years till he is a UFA. Three more years out he has another $15M for a total of $20M.

2) He stays in school three more years and signs a ELC as a UFA at 21. He is a UFA 6 years later at 27. Three years later he is coming off his ELC and we say with bonuses he has made $7M which would be very good.

The difference in these two scenarios is $13M and would be more if Hanifin turns out as expected. But here is the real kicker.

3) In the last game he plays in college he blows out his knee and cannot play any more. Total compensation = $0.

If you were this kids agent/parent which route would you take.

 

[Seachd]

I only bring it up because of all the UFA college kids being signed these days. almost like its becoming a trend. Justin Schultz, Jake Gardiner, Danny Dekeyser... Matt O'Conner(who wasn't drafted). the ELC is what? .875 + signing bonus + playing bonuses that are capped? For a total of what? 6-7 million over 3 years. Does that sound about right to you???

vs.

holding out, losing 6-7 million to sign on a team that would nourish your career. and walk away with a career after hockey.... how much money would Justin Schultz be asking for if he had spent the last 3 years playing for Detroit/NYR/San Jose/Nashville/St. Louis/Anahiem playing 22 minutes a game(this season). Instead will probably have to go to arbitration to get 4mil/year.

Interesting note though....

Jeff Petry has no points and is on pace to have the same +/- on a much better hockey club.

Comparing him to Justin Schultz doesn't really work. Schultz played 4 years after being drafted before he turned pro.

When Schultz finished his entry-level contract, he was basically 24. Hanifin has the potential to do it at 21. That's a huge difference, no matter what team they play for.

Just a small correction - Gardiner wasn't signed out of college as a free agent.

 

[Replacement*]

This is true, but talk about pessimism lol. Sure people some biases but many balance out across many opinions. You are over blowing things big time. In general scouts get it right, I mean the world you live in the worst players would get drafted 1st, clearly they know more than you give them credit for. You see the world a little to black and white.

The world is full of distortions, but noise balances out in many cases. You dont' give people enough credit.

ps, the law of large numbers suggest distortions or bias cancel, not add up.

Yak had many supporters on HF even months ago.

You're talking to the foremost supporter throughout his struggles. Because I knew every knock that was being stated was false. Eakins was the reason Yak was struggling plus not having more established Centers.

Sometimes I get a clear take and I did on that situation. Other times I can be the mistaken distortion. We all get it wrong. But scouting is far from exacting. I don't give that enough credit and you're absolute correct. I'm not convinced I should. Scouts do obviously get the top series of picks generally correct if not in order, but anything outside of 10 picks starts to be a complete crapshoot which alltime results clearly suggest. In fact the correlation for players drafted later than say 15th, and NHL career GP is poor. Its one big fishing derby after mid first round. It always is.

 

[McArthur]

Comparing him to Justin Schultz doesn't really work. Schultz played 4 years after being drafted before he turned pro.

When Schultz finished his entry-level contract, he was basically 24. Hanifin has the potential to do it at 21. That's a huge difference, no matter what team they play for.

Just a small correction - Gardiner wasn't signed out of college as a free agent.

You're right about Gardiner... that trade looks hilarious funny in retrospect. Gardiner + Lupul + plug for Beauchemin. Time line for Schultz is the same, the only difference is Hanifin played NCAA one year sooner.

 

[McArthur]

You're talking to the foremost supporter throughout his struggles. Because I knew every knock that was being stated was false. Eakins was the reason Yak was struggling plus not having more established Centers.

Sometimes I get a clear take and I did on that situation. Other times I can be the mistaken distortion. We all get it wrong. But scouting is far from exacting. I don't give that enough credit and you're absolute correct. I'm not convinced I should. Scouts do obviously get the top series of picks generally correct if not in order, but anything outside of 10 picks starts to be a complete crapshoot which alltime results clearly suggest. In fact the correlation for players drafted later than say 15th, and NHL career GP is poor. Its one big fishing derby after mid first round. It always is.

looking back its funny when you remember all the times Eakins was asked how Yakupov was making out. I still think this draft is the deepest since 2003