Who do you think will be the Selke finalists?

[Howe Elbows 9]

I don't know which forwards have been among the best defensively this season, so I just included some players who have been getting a lot of Selke votes over the last few seasons...

Some basic stats for this season;

Player	GP	Pts	+/-
Sidney Crosby	49	56	+9
Mark Stone	46	53	+26
Aleksander Barkov	45	52	+9
Anze Kopitar	46	46	-1
Ryan O'Reilly	46	45	+21
Patrice Bergeron	47	41	+25
Sean Couturier	38	35	-1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The poll options are listed alphabetically by last name.

Click to read more...

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Barkov likely wins it, Stone because Stone then Bergeron because he’s always a finalist.

 

[Trade]

Sid the Kid

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Man what Barkov is doing with the level of linemates he plays with is just so incredible!
I honestly don’t see how he’s not the run away winner this year.

 

[Regal]

Selke tends to go to defensive name players having what is seen as good seasons, which tend to be partially influenced by their production and team success. Barkov has been really good defensively this year after some down years, and I think the attention from his offensive numbers and Florida finally taking it up a notch will push him to be the winner after several years as a high finisher. I voted Stone as a finalist for much the same reason, though as a winger it might not be the case. I think Bergeron will also likely take a spot because he's Bergeron, he's widely considered the best in the league, has been top 3 for 9 years in a row, and there's nothing in his obvious numbers that would suggest he should fall out.

I think Crosby and O'Reilly will probably round out the top 5, with one possibly taking a finalist spot from Stone. The same top 5 from '18-19 but a different order. Couturier will fall out of the top 5 due to Philly's defensive struggles moreso than his individual play.

 

[JackSlater]

I figure that Barkov and Stone are givens. I also give a slight edge to O'Reilly over Bergeron, assuming St. Louis makes the playoffs at this point.

 

[North Cole]

Thinking Stone wins, Vegas gunning for the Presidents trophy and he's nuts on D right now while also being no slouch offensively. Between him and Barkov IMO.

 

[IceNeophyte]

Selke tends to go to defensive name players having what is seen as good seasons, which tend to be partially influenced by their production and team success. Barkov has been really good defensively this year after some down years, and I think the attention from his offensive numbers and Florida finally taking it up a notch will push him to be the winner after several years as a high finisher. I voted Stone as a finalist for much the same reason, though as a winger it might not be the case. I think Bergeron will also likely take a spot because he's Bergeron, he's widely considered the best in the league, has been top 3 for 9 years in a row, and there's nothing in his obvious numbers that would suggest he should fall out.

I think Crosby and O'Reilly will probably round out the top 5, with one possibly taking a finalist spot from Stone. The same top 5 from '18-19 but a different order. Couturier will fall out of the top 5 due to Philly's defensive struggles moreso than his individual play.

Stone is having a better defensive season than Barkov. More takeaways, better GAA, +/- of +27 to Barkov's +9, best defensive forward on the stingiest defensive team in the league. Though Barkov does have more hits--Stone is more a take your puck away from you kind of guy. OH, and Stone and Barkov are neck and neck in total points, with Stone today at 1.19 PPG vs Barkov's 1.15. I don't think that should be a factor, but it always seems to be.

Not that he'll WIN this name recognition contest, of course, but suggesting that Crosby would displace Stone is laughable.

 

[IceNeophyte]

I figure that Barkov and Stone are givens. I also give a slight edge to O'Reilly over Bergeron, assuming St. Louis makes the playoffs at this point.

I believe StL will make the playoffs. They are currently in by 3 points with 3 games in hand and Arizona's runway is getting pretty short.

 

[Regal]

Stone is having a better defensive season than Barkov. More takeaways, better GAA, +/- of +27 to Barkov's +9, best defensive forward on the stingiest defensive team in the league. Though Barkov does have more hits--Stone is more a take your puck away from you kind of guy. OH, and Stone and Barkov are neck and neck in total points, with Stone today at 1.19 PPG vs Barkov's 1.15. I don't think that should be a factor, but it always seems to be.

Not that he'll WIN this name recognition contest, of course, but suggesting that Crosby would displace Stone is laughable.

You're arguing for who should win not who will, which is what the thread is about. There's been a lot of talk about how good Barkov has been this year, moreso than Stone from what I've seen, and I think that will translate into votes whether or not he's the most deserving.

Regardless, in terms of actually limiting chances against relative to team and competition, Barkov has been better than Stone this year. Goals against and plus minus are heavily influenced by goaltending and takeaways are a small portion of defense.

As for Crosby, again, the thread is about votes. Crosby, like in 18-19, has very good suppression numbers, and while I think they're more the result of his puck possession and deployment rather than straight up defensive ability, there's certainly a narrative that he's still near the top of the league due to his overall game, despite his offense slipping. Voters have shown they love Crosby, and with the Pens resurgence after a slow start, despite missing Malkin, I think he'll get a lot of credit for that in the Selke race, where he had a large push in 18-19 as well, with a smattering of votes for the Hart as well.

 

[IceNeophyte]

You're arguing for who should win not who will, which is what the thread is about. There's been a lot of talk about how good Barkov has been this year, moreso than Stone from what I've seen, and I think that will translate into votes whether or not he's the most deserving.

Regardless, in terms of actually limiting chances against relative to team and competition, Barkov has been better than Stone this year. Goals against and plus minus are heavily influenced by goaltending and takeaways are a small portion of defense.

As for Crosby, again, the thread of about votes. Crosby, like in 18-19, has very good suppression numbers, and while I think they're more the result of his puck possession and deployment rather than straight up defensive ability, there's certainly a narrative that he's still near the top of the league despite his offense slipping due to his overall game. Voters have shown they love Crosby, and with the Pens resurgence after a slow start despite missing Malkin, I think he'll get a lot of credit for that both in the Selke and even get some Hart votes thrown his way, regardless of how deserving he is.

I'll bet you a team shotglass Stone is in the Top 5 and Crosby isn't.

 

[Regal]

I'll bet you a team shotglass Stone is in the Top 5 and Crosby isn't.

Why would I do that when I never argued that that was the most likely outcome?

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Barkov, Stone and Bergeron with Barkov winning is my prediction

 

[IceNeophyte]

Why would I do that when I never argued that that was the most likely outcome?

"I think Crosby and O'Reilly will probably round out the top 5, with one possibly taking a finalist spot from Stone. "

"Regardless, in terms of actually limiting chances against relative to team and competition, Barkov has been better than Stone this year. Goals against and plus minus are heavily influenced by goaltending and takeaways are a small portion of defense."

Incidentally, the closest stat we have to shots given up to opponents is Corsi Against, where Stone is running 32% and Barkov is running 38%. That stat is not influenced by goaltender performance, with the exception that a better goaltender may give up fewer rebounds and thus fewer second chance shots.

 

[kthx]

I think it's between Stone and Barkov at this point. Bergeron as usual deserves to be mentioned within top-3 or top-4.

 

[IceNeophyte]

"I think Crosby and O'Reilly will probably round out the top 5, with one possibly taking a finalist spot from Stone. "

"Regardless, in terms of actually limiting chances against relative to team and competition, Barkov has been better than Stone this year. Goals against and plus minus are heavily influenced by goaltending and takeaways are a small portion of defense."

Incidentally, the closest stat we have to shots given up to opponents is Corsi Against, where Stone is running 32% and Barkov is running 38%. That stat is not influenced by goaltender performance, with the exception that a better goaltender may give up fewer rebounds and thus fewer second chance shots.

Of course, I am aware that the real problem here is that Stone plays on the West Coast, so most people arguing for Barkov, and those who will vote for him, hardly watch him play. So yes, I am arguing what should be, not what will be. Stone gives me that sigh of relief that they won't score this shift, I don't get that feeling when Barkov is on ice.

 

[Regal]

"I think Crosby and O'Reilly will probably round out the top 5, with one possibly taking a finalist spot from Stone. "

"Regardless, in terms of actually limiting chances against relative to team and competition, Barkov has been better than Stone this year. Goals against and plus minus are heavily influenced by goaltending and takeaways are a small portion of defense."

Incidentally, the closest stat we have to shots given up to opponents is Corsi Against, where Stone is running 32% and Barkov is running 38%. That stat is not influenced by goaltender performance, with the exception that a better goaltender may give up fewer rebounds and thus fewer second chance shots.

My post says very clearly that I voted for Stone to be a likely finalist but he's the one I'm least confident in and that he might be replaced by one of Crosby or ROR in the top 3. I never said Crosby is more likely to be a finalist nor did I say anything about Stone falling out of the top 5.

I'm not sure what you mean by 32 and 38 percent corsi against. Barkov gives up fewer CA/60, SA/60, xGA/60, SCA/60, and HDCA/60, and has better regression numbers for xGA and CA. The Knights give up more corsi and shots when Stone is on the ice than not, while the Panthers give up far fewer with Barkov on the ice, though Stone limits high danger chances and expected goals against well, and has slightly better relative numbers compared to Barkov in those two metrics. Both are excellent players having great seasons. I really don't care who's better, but I'm quite confident Barkov will have more votes at the end of the year.

 

[Paul4587]

It should be Barkov, Bergeron and Marchand.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Pavel Buchnevich

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Think O Reilly wins it

 

[Buck Naked]

Barkov, Stone, Marchand.

Hoping at least.

 

[Howe Elbows 9]

It should be Barkov, Bergeron and Marchand.

I wondered if anyone would mention Marchand; he's finished top 10 in votes (ninth and tenth) twice in the last three seasons.

 

[bobholly39]

I wondered if anyone would mention Marchand; he's finished top 10 in votes (ninth and tenth) twice in the last three seasons.

I don't see Marchand ever getting serious recognition for the Selke while he plays with Bergeron. Not sure how fair or not that is, but it just is a reality.

I'm sure he may get votes, and maybe a top 10 or so finish can be expected, but he'll never contend for a win.

 

[djboos22]

J. Staal should get some looks. He has been phenomenal.

 

[inactive user]

It should be Barkov, Bergeron and Marchand.

Marchand won’t because of his reputation.