TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
So rather than have a long strung-out argument, we can simply agree on this statement: there are systemic biases built into the model.
Those systemic biases will, inevitably, conjure statistical phantoms. And identifying those unsupportable results is necessary for refining the model.
All I’m trying to accomplish here is to wave a flag and point out that I see several unsupportable results cropping up on a single team — one that I happen to know very intimately and am (at worst) unlikely to be completely off-base about.
The flag has been waved. Having said my peace, if you still truly think the metrics are correct, that there is no phantom but a real tangible result, then that’s simply a judgment call. Nothing I can do to change it and I’m not bothered by letting it end there.
A mild systemic bias that probably flatters your guy if anything, yes. And there is no systemic bias for goals against, where Aho’s defensive impact this season was equally putrid or perhaps even worse.