Agree with tenor of posts that Bob is part of the core and that Bob's playoff sample size is not large enough to draw too many conclusions. If Bob had performed in playoffs as average regular season Bob (ignoring injury stints and recovery), then the concern about his salary would be less (conceding that his play contributed to his small sample size, but so did the Pens and our veterans).
IMO the issue is whether Bob's performance (regular season AND playoffs) will be worth the incremental difference between that new salary and a mid- to mid-upper level goalie salary, not whether it's $7-8-9-10M. Sometimes the comments read as if it were his entire salary as the issue. However, there is no legitimate playoff/SC contender with an ELC goalie between the pipes as their Plan A. I haven't done the precise math, but the perceived contenders across the NHL mostly have a G in the $5M-6M-7M range, with only a few with a #1 goalie in the $4M range and a back up at $3-4M. To me the question is whether Bob is worth the difference between his contract price and $6.0M, and whether a lower priced backup (i.e. young as in Korpi or previusly journeyman backup like Curtis) can play well enough for enough games to stem the tide when rest or minor injuries hit. If major injury hits, it's going to be difficult for any team to plug the hole for an entire season, but that's when you have to make a trade if all else is in line for a run and the young G isn't cutting it.
PIT in the playoffs this year might have been an exception, but everyone knew Fleury was on the way out, and likely to VGK. So far, IMO, I'd take the bet on Bob long haul over the tandem of two "middling" goalies or a developing G, recognizing that Bob's playoff performance still tbd - ask again in 2 years.
Per Capfriendly:
PIT - Murray $3.75; Niemi 0.70 (Fleury was at $5.75 last season on 2nd year of 4 yr deal).
WAS - Holtby $6.1; Grubauer 1.5
NYR - Henrik $8.5; Pavalec 1.3
NYI - Halak $4.5; Griess 3.33
PHI - Elliott $2.75; Nuevirth 2.50
NJD - Schneider $6.0; Kincaid $1.25
CAR - Darling 4.15; Ward 3.3
CBJ - Bob 7.425; Korpi 0.9
Even outside the division, the trend seems to be the same - teams in the hunt for playoffs tend to have higher paid (i.e. either better or at least more experienced and thus higher paid) goalies:
TOR - Andersen 5.0; McCurtis 0.85
MTL - Price 10.5
OTT - Anderson 4.2; Condon 2.6
BOS - Rask 7.0; Khudobin 1.2
FLA - Luongo 4.533; Riemer 3.4
TBL - Varlesky 3.5;
DET - Howard 5.3; Mrazek 4.0
BUF - Lehner 4.0; Johnson 2.5
in the West, more of the same:
NSH - Rinne 7.0
CHI - Crawford 6.0
STL - Allen 4.35; Hutton 1.125
CAL - Smith 4.25; Lack 1.375
EDM - Talbott 4.166; Brossoit 0.75, with $54M in contracts for 19-20 on 9 players (no G)
LA - Quick 5.8; Kuemper 0.65 (no contract after this season).
MIN - Dubnykk 4.333; Stalock 0.65
SJ - Jones 5.75
ANA - Gibson 2.3; Miller 2.0 (37 yr old Ryan Miller - when did that happen?)
VAN - Markstrom 3.66; Nilsson 2.5
COL (yes, THAT Colorado) - Varlamov 5.9; Bernier 2.75.
VGK - Fleury at $5.75
I just can't see CBJ letting Bob go unless cost well north of $10M. Other than Price, most of these G contracts have some years already on them, so the prices are going to go up as cap increases. Better analysis is % of cap at the time of the new deal. Bob will be 31 entering the 19-20 season, still several prime years left for G. Key will be term - shorter preferred for CBJ then. The total amount devoted to G position by CBJ seems relatively in range compared to most teams. Now if Bob struggles in the PO's (I assume they make it back), then the question will be whether to go to a B+ goalie, with a strong seasoned backup to insure against injuries or go for it with one stud regular season goalie (i.e. Bob) and younger backup (or older stable but less-talented backup), in hopes that Bob finally cycles right in the PO's. My position assumes Bob answers the bell in the playoffs in the next 2 years at a high level. While Korpi has potential, there is no way IMO that you count on him taking the reins in 1, 2 or even 3 years. I don't want to see anyone but Bob in the net as our #1 for the next 2 years while we still have him under contract - the door is open now, and there actually is cap space to add at TDL if needed.
I very much like the Jenners, Anderson's, etc... on this team, and I understand the concern of losing one or more in order to keep Bob, but I'd rather have to fit a few youngun's in as depth forwards to replace the Jenners on this team (as much as it would hurt to see him go) than count on an unproven or B level G as the #1. Plus, Korpi is not going to get much more than 1.25-1.5 when his contract expires unless he plays significantly more than we anticipate (injury or unlikely coaching decision to balance games) and puts up .920+ numbers for extended period. Korpi will be an RFA, not a UFA.
CHI won 3 cups primarily with Crawford; at least one was during a 3 year bridge, but at least last one and possibly two were on $6.0 AVV. PIT has won 3 with Fleury on the roster, conceding Murray was the man in 2016 PO's, but PIT would not have made it to the SCF without Fleury in 2017. Kings won with Quick in goal 2x, with the second at $5.8 (10 year deal before 8 yr limit imposed). Boston had Tim Thomas on AAV of $5.0M when they won 6 years ago, before any salary inflation, and made it back a few years later. Similar observations for SC runnersup in recent years (Rinne, Jones, Bishop, Henrik, Thomas/Rask?, Broduer).
Just have not seen the committee approach work to win or get to the SCF, with the exception being this past year's injury situation with PIT. Do you need a solid backup - YES, but can be young. I am just not seeing the highest level of ultimate success for teams with a 1a and 1b (PHI and DAL being my poster child teams for that mantra). Split duties may work for developing teams, but not usually for the true contenders. I'd like to think CBJ is in the latter category, or at least on the cusp.
