Salary Cap: Which Wheeler contract would you prefer?

[Gm0ney]

The Jets have the rest of this season, the playoffs and next season to figure out what to do with Wheeler. It looks like he's already peaked. He's currently in the midst of his worst CF/60 season of his career. It's not an encouraging sign:

 

[KingBogo]

Except this hasn't been an outlier season.

The declining past 30 has been way over blown IMO. Its not the same for any 2 players and the rate of decline isn't either. Add on the fact the further you have to decline when you're as productive as Wheeler is I can't see why not give him 5 years. I'd prefer 3 or 4.

Trying to get rid of a good player before he declines is like trying to time the stock market. You're better off keeping a player of this caliber and dealing with the repercussions.

Not sure this is the best analogy, because if you knew the stock was going to tank in the next few years you are better off bailing early and protecting your assets rather than hold on too long and have to deal with the repercussions.

 

[surixon]

The Jets have the rest of this season, the playoffs and next season to figure out what to do with Wheeler. It looks like he's already peaked. He's currently in the midst of his worst CF/60 season of his career. It's not an encouraging sign:

View attachment 95935

Thanks for posting this. I kind of figured there where some signs pointing towards him starting to slow down in some respects. I agree that Chevy should hold off as long as he can before making a decision.

 

[Gm0ney]

Thanks for posting this. I kind of figured there where some signs pointing towards him starting to slow down in some respects. I agree that Chevy should hold off as long as he can before making a decision.

And that might be the least alarming chart...his ixGF/60 and iCF/60 are worse I think. Maybe it's just an off year, but at his age? Maybe it's just these polynomial trendlines that makes these ones so scary...

This looks like a clear peak and cliff. Currently his 2nd-worst iCF/60 season:

 

[surixon]

And that might be the least alarming chart...his ixGF/60 and iCF/60 are worse I think. Maybe it's just an off year, but at his age? Maybe it's just these polynomial trendlines that makes these ones so scary...
View attachment 95943

This looks like a clear peak and cliff. Currently his 2nd-worst iCF/60 season:
View attachment 95945

Unfortunately those are usually how things follow the aging curve. His curve seems pushed out a couple of years, likely due to him starting is pro career a bit later than most other players. I like the guy but this is more evidence that leads towards me being very cautious with projecting his impact 2 to 3 years from now. I certainly don't want to give him a crazy long deal at big dollars. Seems like a precursor to his production dropping.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Unfortunately those are usually how things follow the aging curve. His curve seems pushed out a couple of years, likely due to him starting is pro career a bit later than most other players. I like the guy but this is more evidence that leads towards me being very cautious with projecting his impact 2 to 3 years from now. I certainly don't want to give him a crazy long deal at big dollars. Seems like a precursor to his production dropping.

If no one gets dealt or extended then at the same time we have coming due

UFA

Wheeler
Myers
Chiarot
Mason

RFA

Laine
Connor
Copp

(Could be others depending on what gets done with our RFA's this offseason)

The priority will be to get the Laine deal done first but if he wants to pad his statistics and complete his ELC before negotiating an extension then the team may have to deal with Wheeler first.

 

[KingBogo]

Unfortunately those are usually how things follow the aging curve. His curve seems pushed out a couple of years, likely due to him starting is pro career a bit later than most other players. I like the guy but this is more evidence that leads towards me being very cautious with projecting his impact 2 to 3 years from now. I certainly don't want to give him a crazy long deal at big dollars. Seems like a precursor to his production dropping.

I'm really hoping they find a happy middle with Wheeler. We know how important he is to the team and especially to guys like Scheif. But at the same time a bad long term contract is the last thing a young talented team needs. How about 4 years at $6.5. That is $26 M more for #26. Gives him close to $80 m for a career. Him and Little can retire together in 5 years with a couple cups

 

[surixon]

I'm really hoping they find a happy middle with Wheeler. We know how important he is to the team and especially to guys like Scheif. But at the same time a bad long term contract is the last thing a young talented team needs. How about 4 years at $6.5. That is $26 M more for #26. Gives him close to $80 m for a career. Him and Little can retire together in 5 years with a couple cups

My number was 3 at $7 to $7.25. I would probably do that 4 year deal if we have the option to move him in the last year.

 

[surixon]

If no one gets dealt or extended then at the same time we have coming due

UFA

Wheeler
Myers
Chiarot
Mason

RFA

Laine
Connor
Copp

(Could be others depending on what gets done with our RFA's this offseason)

The priority will be to get the Laine deal done first but if he wants to pad his statistics and complete his ELC before negotiating an extension then the team may have to deal with Wheeler first.

True enough. I would hope the team leaves Wheeler until next January myself, it would allow them to get a better read on him. No reason they can't get a deal done in short order ala Buff if both sides are willing.

 

[KingBogo]

My number was 3 at $7 to $7.25. I would probably do that 4 year deal if we have the option to move him in the last year.

Ideally the option should be to move in the last 2 years. The real question is if Wheeler wants to maximize personal gain or is he so cup focused he will sacrifice a bit of the personal gain to give the Jets the best chance possible at a cup.

 

[surixon]

Ideally the option should be to move in the last 2 years. The real question is if Wheeler wants to maximize personal gain or is he so cup focused he will sacrifice a bit of the personal gain to give the Jets the best chance possible at a cup.

Hard to say what way he's leaning, only time will tell.

 

[Aavco Cup]

True enough. I would hope the team leaves Wheeler until next January myself, it would allow them to get a better read on him. No reason they can't get a deal done in short order ala Buff if both sides are willing.

I don't think a Wheeler extension is going to happen this summer but inseason before his contract expires is entirely possible.

 

[Guerzy]

I’m not sure where Wheeler will stand but I’d rather not go longer than 3 years with him on an extension, though I’m not sure that will be possible or acceptable for Wheels. Going 5-7 years at a likely cap hit of 6-7 million per with anybody at 33 to start the contract just seems like a huge risk. The flip side is he’s such a beast offensively and a huge part of our success. What if Wheels is productive like Marleau well into his late 30s, is that what he’s going to be thinking going into negotiations? But even Marleau was on 4 and 3 year short-term deals in SJ the last 7 or so years he was there. Those charts above are concerning, yet he’s having his best offensive season of his career. The joys of being/becoming a legit contender come with difficult roster decisions.

 

[robertocarlos]

I don't believe in stats. Believe your eyes. If he is a top winger then pay him like a top winger.

 

[Say What]

TNSE has done many declining salary and increasing salary deals. I don't know why you think they don't like them.

It's what I believe to be true. During negotiations, TNSE almost never opts to stagger the salary (there's very little benefit in a small market). IMO, TNSE doesn't want to be a Revenue Sharing team (investigate the mid-point of the Salary Cap as it pertains to this/CBA); therefore controlling the financial aspects of this business in any given year is paramount to that goal. Profits one year, losses the next...red, black, red, black; very unstable in my opinion. In short, TNSE just doesn't benefit from it; it's a fine line between HRR vs Mid-Cap spending vs Salary/Team Expenditures, and who qualifies for help.
Players, on the other hand, almost always ask for some sort of variance (look at newly signed contracts leading up to a possible lockout as an example). While some owners will gladly pay out the majority of salary at the front of a contract (Tyler Myers/old CBA), IMO it doesn't benefit a team's financial structure. Having said that, I don't believe it ever becomes a sticking point (eg. Mark Scheifele, Bryan Little, Nik Ehlers etc. recently signed those deals) like paying out salary as a bonus would. I firmly stand by the statement that it isn't team opted (the pending lockout isn't the norm, regarding contract structure).

As a side: I personally believe Michael Frolik had a better structured deal than the one he accepted (my opinion). The player obviously opted for what he thought was best. Such is the nature of negotiations.

 

[surixon]

I don't believe in stats. Believe your eyes. If he is a top winger then pay him like a top winger.

The question is how much longer he can reasonably be expected to be a top winger.

 

[Aavco Cup]

It's what I believe to be true. During negotiations, TNSE almost never opts to stagger the salary (there's very little benefit in a small market). IMO, TNSE doesn't want to be a Revenue Sharing team (investigate the mid-point of the Salary Cap as it pertains to this/CBA); therefore controlling the financial aspects of this business in any given year is paramount to that goal. Profits one year, losses the next...red, black, red, black; very unstable in my opinion. In short, TNSE just doesn't benefit from it; it's a fine line between HRR vs Mid-Cap spending vs Salary/Team Expenditures, and who qualifies for help.
Players, on the other hand, almost always ask for some sort of variance (look at newly signed contracts leading up to a possible lockout as an example). While some owners will gladly pay out the majority of salary at the front of a contract (Tyler Myers/old CBA), IMO it doesn't benefit a team's financial structure. Having said that, I don't believe it ever becomes a sticking point (eg. Mark Scheifele, Bryan Little, Nik Ehlers etc. recently signed those deals) like paying out salary as a bonus would. I firmly stand by the statement that it isn't team opted (the pending lockout isn't the norm, regarding contract structure).

As a side: I personally believe Michael Frolik had a better structured deal than the one he accepted (my opinion). The player obviously opted for what he thought was best. Such is the nature of negotiations.

What you believe to be true is different from the facts. Here is the most recent contract they signed and registered with the league. It's Bryan Little's. There are more but I won't bother posting them

 

[Stej]

You folks and your charts are bumming me out. Only because you are demonstrating what I feared could be true. Hopefully his decline is delayed and slow. Especially if we re-sign him.

 

[Say What]

What you believe to be true is different from the facts. Here is the most recent contract they signed and registered with the league. It's Bryan Little's. There are more but I won't bother posting them

Yes, I stand corrected. I see where it states that TNSE suggested the salary structure, so as to avoid the possible lockout season. The first year Bryan's salary decreases is when? Then right back to about the same salary.
By all means, educate me. Post all the salaries showing the same trend. I'm not offended in the least. I stated as much in my previous post. TNSE is loyal to it's players; and contract negotiations (what you know of the final numbers) support that notion.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Yes, I stand corrected. I see where it states that TNSE suggested the salary structure, so as to avoid the possible lockout season. The first year Bryan's salary decreases is when? Then right back to about the same salary.
By all means, educate me. Post all the salaries showing the same trend. I'm not offended in the least. I stated as much in my previous post. TNSE is loyal to it's players; and contract negotiations (what you know of the final numbers) support that notion.

The last two years decrease significantly. They are not adverse to doing this. It's not the only example. They have also done contracts that escalate in salary with some RFA players.

Since this is a Wheeler thread I won't bother posting them. I made my point. If they were willing to do a deal like this with Little why wouldn't they be willing to do it with Blake?

 

[Say What]

The last two years decrease significantly. They are not adverse to doing this. It's not the only example. They have also done contracts that escalate in salary with some RFA players.

Since this is a Wheeler thread I won't bother posting them. I made my point. If they were willing to do a deal like this with Little why wouldn't they be willing to do it with Blake?

Based on the overall contract value, the last two years had to be at a much lower salary rate.
I agree, Blake Wheeler will want the same basic structure as those players I mentioned above. The reason is as stated, the pending lockout season of 2020/21. I suspect all players signing contracts that overlap that date, will opt for some form of protection (regardless of how little). But IMO, TNSE won't be entering the negotiations by suggesting it. Cheers

 

[paragon]

I think both of those offers would be disrespectful for one of the best wingers in the game. Marian Hossa was basically the same age and got 5.3M per on a 12 year cap circumvention contract 9 years ago when the cap was much lower. Even Byfuglien got 7.6M on a 5 year deal 2 years ago.

 

[libertarian]

I think both of those offers would be disrespectful for one of the best wingers in the game. Marian Hossa was basically the same age and got 5.3M per on a 12 year cap circumvention contract 9 years ago when the cap was much lower. Even Byfuglien got 7.6M on a 5 year deal 2 years ago.

Buff's contract is a bad deal for the Jets so I don't see the logic of repeating that mistake again. That said Wheeler is much more important to the team's success then Buff so I say again to keep Wheeler and pay him what he is worth and to sign the young guns long term, Buff has to go. Trade Buff this summer for what ever you can get for him and sign Laine, Morrissey, Lowry, Helly and Trouba (if he want to stay) long term. If there is enough cap room left then sign Wheeler for a 5 year 30-35M contract. If the Jets want a extended window to win the cup they need to sign the young guys longer term first.

If Wheeler want more then 35M which he could certainly get in the open market then trade him or treat him as a rental next year and let him walk.

My guess is Wheeler will be reasonable on what he asks for because he does want to win badly and he recognizes that playing with Scheifele is his best ticket into the HOF and to win Stanley Cups. Plus they seem to love playing together and having Scheifele locked up long tem will be a powerful incentive for Wheeler to be maybe more then reasonable with his contract negotiations.

 

[KingBogo]

I think both of those offers would be disrespectful for one of the best wingers in the game. Marian Hossa was basically the same age and got 5.3M per on a 12 year cap circumvention contract 9 years ago when the cap was much lower. Even Byfuglien got 7.6M on a 5 year deal 2 years ago.

All these things aren't really comparable. Hossa signed at age 30 before the current CBA and has an actual salary of $1.0 M. this season but since the CBA has changed Chicago will have him on LTIR for the next 4 seasons allergic to his equipment to avoid further cap problems. Buff's contract ends at age 36, so would be more in line with a 3 year deal for Wheeler which many have been advocating for. And finally how is a $35 M deal disrespectful? 5 X $7 to age 38 would be the big loyalty contract many fear.

 

[paragon]

And finally how is a $35 M deal disrespectful? 5 X $7 to age 38 would be the big loyalty contract many fear.

Yes. Look at what 38 yo players make. Last summer Joe Thornton signed a 8M 1 year deal . Marleau signed a 3 year 19M deal with the Maple Leafs and makes 8.5M this year. Thornton had a 50 point season and Marleau 46 points before they signed those contracts and Marleau's wife claimed other teams offered more money. Wheeler is a whole lot younger and better than either of those guys.

If Blake Wheeler goes to free agency he's going to be 32 when he signs his next contract. David Backes was 32 when he signed his 5 year 30M UFA deal with Boston. The cap will go up and he's not even half the player Wheeler is. 35M is less than Clarkson got and it's way below his market value. That's why I think it would be a disrespectful offer for a classy guy who happens to be the captain and best player on the team and a top10 winger in the league.