GDT: Which players are impressing you the most at the 2024 World Junior Championships?

[Cowumbus]

Nazar’s passing is feast or famine. Go back and watch his two worst games — Norway and the Czechs, and the Canada exhibition. Plenty of turnovers, and Gauthier has been even worse. Howard was horrible in every facet for long stretches to start the WJC and was mostly lazy on pucks until getting his act together. He’s a goal scorer but he tries to avoid contact.

I thought Brindley was the other guy on that line?

 

[thedjpd]

I thought Brindley was the other guy on that line?

He is.

 

[Hollel]

To stay on topic, I think Nazar has been impressing me the most. And for no reason at all….his current WJC player card

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I thought Brindley was the other guy on that line?

Brindley has nothing to do with what I wrote.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Happy with Ryan Leonard’s performance as a Caps fan. Brindley, Nazar, and Augustine have also all stood out.

Celebrini is as advertised. He’s going to be a really nice consolation prize for some time that sucked eggs this season.

Ostlund, Gajan, Honzek are guys that caught my attention as well. And the Canucks trio.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Production is still important Steve. There's a reason why Tyler Toffoli made it and Christian Thomas didn't. Toffoli's production exploded in his D+1 and stayed high in his D+2, whereas Thomas had a similar D+1 but cratered in his D+2. And whaddya know, Toffoli played a role in the Kings beating the Rangers in the 2014 Final; many forget he had the primary assist on the Martinez OT Cup winner.

Stats are important for record keeping but are mostly irrelevant for player development. If they canceled the WJC and didn't have a single in-season tournament for prospects, the cream still rises to the top regardless.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

this is my exact confusion. Steve highlighting Finley (I like the prospect!) as a + for being 'near puck perfect' in some sheltered defensive role vs Nazar ( who is still working out line chemistry, getting going in the tournament early on etc) clearly attempting and executing some high level plays most players can't on the regular AND being rewarded on the scoresheet for it. im sure the tracking is great, but the interpretation of the data..... im very skeptical of lol.

Like I already said, I'm looking at decision-making with the puck and pass accuracy before anything else. I'm trying to figure out who is killing shifts versus who is creating or saving them. Starts with the breakout and how they're executed. Breakouts are practiced as much as anything else at nearly every level of hockey, and most of the time it's the only thing a coach will yammer about. There are volumes written on breakout tactics and every coach uses them one way or another.

Panicking with the puck is the No. 1 reason a shift gets killed. That's what I'm looking for -- who's calm, who's buying time and space, who's passing it to the right guy and is it accurate, etc.

Finley is not on Nazar's level as a prospect. But in this particular tournament (excluding Sunday's game), Finley as a winger on the fourth line has been incredibly consistent with nearly all his decisions in all three zones. Nazar has been more erratic, inaccurate, and jumpy, which has paid off more than it's hurt him and the flash has been impressive. That also doesn't mean he hasn't turned pucks over with wildly inaccurate centering feeds that led to opposing counters and killed possessions with bad decisions in the neutral zone.

Again, these are just observations. If I watch a game shift by shift, I'm going to see good and bad and report on the good and bad. It's not even analytical.

 

[Guttersniped]

this is my exact confusion. Steve highlighting Finley (I like the prospect!) as a + for being 'near puck perfect' in some sheltered defensive role vs Nazar ( who is still working out line chemistry, getting going in the tournament early on etc) clearly attempting and executing some high level plays most players can't on the regular AND being rewarded on the scoresheet for it. im sure the tracking is great, but the interpretation of the data..... im very skeptical of lol.

Spoiler: defensive stats tracked

Defense (5-on-5 only) - USA Forwards only

Finley:

Nazar:

OZ Retrievals (5-on-5 only) - USA All

Finley:

Nazar:

From the public explainer
Available here

This is, and I cannot stress this enough, manually tracked data. Each game takes anywhere from two to four hours, dependent on the camera angle, video quality, and more. Sample sizes around eight games up and generally the most stable, and thus, the more usable.

Definitions

xG/60: Expected goals per 60; the weighted likelihood of a player's shots resulting a goal, based on shot location, shot type, preceding passes, situation, and rebounds

Shots/60: The player's shots, rated per 60 minutes

xA1/60: Expected primary assists per 60; the weighted likelihood of a player's passes that resulted in a shot becoming a goal, based on shot location, shot type, preceding passes, and situation

Slot Passes/60: The number of times a player passes into or across the slot, regardless of outcome, rated per 60 minutes

Slot Pass Success %: The success rate (i.e., puck lands on a teammate's stick) of a player's passes into or across the slot

Ctrl Entry Rel%: The sum of a player's total controlled (carry or pass) entry attempts, divided by their total attempts, rated relative to team

Ctrl Entries/60: The player's number of carries or passes over the offensive blue line to establish the offensive zone, rated per 60 minutes

Ctrl Exit Rel%: The sum of a player's total controlled (carry or pass) exit attempts, divided by their total attempts while pressured by the opposition, rated relative to team

Ctrl Exits/60: The player's number of carries or passes over the defensive blue line, rated per 60 minutes

Transition Success %: The sum of a player's total successful transition attempts, divided by their total attempts, rated relative to team

Cross Lane Plays/60: Passes or carries that cross the dot lanes, either going outside-to-in, in-to-out, or cross-ice (outside-to-outside), rated per 60.

Entry Prevention %: The number of entry attempts that target the player that failed, rated relative to team

Defensive Plays/CA: The sum of a player's DZ break ups, slot pass interceptions, opposition shots that they pressured, neutral zone break ups, and recovered dump-ins in the defensive zone, rated per corsi against

Retrieval Success %: The percentage of a player’s DZ retrievals that resulted in his team’s possession divided their total number of retrieval.

OZ Retrievals/60: The player's number of puck retrievals (off dump ins) plus the number of steals and interceptions in the offensive zone, rated per 60 minutes.

Advantages Created/60: The number of times a player beats an opponent to successfully create space for themselves or a teammate, rated per 60 minutes.

Boards to Middle Plays/60: The number of times a player successfully takes the puck from the boards to the inside lane under pressure, rated per 60 minutes.

Off-Puck Assists/60: The number of times a player successfully sets a pick, lifts a stick, or drives the net to draw defenders and create shooting lanes for teammates, rated per 60 minutes.

xP1 Involvement %: The player's percentage of the team's total xG that the player either shot or set-up.

Game Score/GP: An all-encompassing metric that weights shot contributions, xP1, exits, entries, rush defence, and in-zone defence to measure impact, rated per game – used to measure volume, not efficiency.

How they weight stats:

 

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[Antiillafire]

The little guy Reinhard on Switzerland, Ciernik on Slovakia, and Finley on the U.S. have been dancing out of trouble all tournament. Expert stickhandling. Obviously the same goes for Hutson.

Melovsky and Hrabal the most impressive from the Czechs beyond Kulich and Sale. Kmec has been strong for Slovakia.

Vesterheim has been phenomenal in every facet and one of the best players on either team in every first period in every game. He eventually runs out of gas like the rest of the Norwegians, but with Mora he's more energetic in later stages. Solberg was brutal today but looked gassed and still had enough energy to mash people on his final shift. Lot of risk there. The double-overager Koch has been tough in the corners and in front of the net.

Unger has been Sweden's best forward with Ostlund and Bystedt close behind. The entire defense except Salomonsson has been exceptional.

Celebrini is Canada's best forward by a mile. Rehkopf has been good in limited time. Mateychuk-Lamoureux pairing has been near perfect.

Hutson is Team USA's MVP. The rest of the team outside the fourth line has underperformed and played sloppy.

Hemming has been one of the few bright spots for Finland, albeit from the fourth line. Lassila the only other guy playing with heart and hustling. Maybe Mannisto as well. Helenius has been flashy in spurts but not enough.

Locmelis has been a star for Latvia. The coach seems to give Vilmanis or Bukards the business on the bench for a dumb pass or slow read, but Locmellis is his golden boy for good reason. He would be an MVP candidate with better support.

I like Elias and Kechter way more than Lutz for Germany. Lutz has been off, but at least he tries. Kechter has been dancing and delivering great setups while playing a two-way game.

Ciernik was brutal while he as playing. He was holding Dvorsky back and instantly when he went out, Dvorsky and Pekarcik instantly began to generate more.

 

[Three On Zero]

Celebrini for team Canada.

Overall Canada seems really devoid of talent this year


Ostlund and EP 2.0 from team Sweden

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Ciernik was brutal while he as playing. He was holding Dvorsky back and instantly when he went out, Dvorsky and Pekarcik instantly began to generate more.

Disagree entirely and definitely not in the first three games I watched. Ciernik was very good at controlling the puck and making good decisions. And Misiak was the one struggling on the line and killing possessions. Ciernik was mostly saving or continuing them and Dvorsky was almost entirely dedicated to defensive coverage. Don't know what you look for in a given shift, but Ciernik was someone who impressed, even in the Swiss game when everyone on Slovakia had trouble generating anything.

 

[Cowumbus]

Brindley has nothing to do with what I wrote.

Yeah clearly. I wanted to hear what you thought of Brindley, but he was the only one you left out from that trio. You made a comment about Gauthier, which is why I asked.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Stats are important for record keeping but are mostly irrelevant for player development. If they canceled the WJC and didn't have a single in-season tournament for prospects, the cream still rises to the top regardless.

No they're not irrelevant. Someone who puts up 46 points in 65 games in the O has a far lower offensive ceiling than someone who puts up 75 points in 65 games on a similar quality team in the O. Brayden Point was the number 3 draft eligible points producer in the Dub and he fell to 79, going after many guys like Dominic Turgeon who had shitty production in the Dub or other leagues, adjusting for league quality/development route.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Yeah clearly. I wanted to hear what you thought of Brindley, but he was the only one you left out from that trio. You made a comment about Gauthier, which is why I asked.

Rough in the exhibition game but pretty good in every match thereafter and one of their better forwards. Less mistake-prone.

View attachment 794102View attachment 794103View attachment 794104

Spoiler: defensive stats tracked

Defense (5-on-5 only) - USA Forwards only
View attachment 794108
Finley:View attachment 794110
View attachment 794109
Nazar:
View attachment 794111
View attachment 794112
OZ Retrievals (5-on-5 only) - USA All
View attachment 794113
Finley:
View attachment 794115
Nazar:
View attachment 794114

From the public explainer
Available here

How they weight stats:
View attachment 794117

 

[Steve Kournianos]

No they're not irrelevant. Someone who puts up 46 points in 65 games in the O has a far lower offensive ceiling than someone who puts up 75 points in 65 games on a similar quality team in the O. Brayden Point was the number 3 draft eligible points producer in the Dub and he fell to 79, going after many guys like Dominic Turgeon who had shitty production in the Dub or other leagues, adjusting for league quality/development route.

I'm talking about stats at the WJC.

 

[Malaka]

As a neutral, totally unbiased fan I say some little guy named Hutson and Owen Beck.

And some guy named Laser? Fazer? Mesar?

Nazar*

 

[josra33]

Owen Beck might have an ironman career to the tune of Cogliano. The man literally rose from the dead right before our very eyes.

 

[stl76]

Like I already said, I'm looking at decision-making with the puck and pass accuracy before anything else. I'm trying to figure out who is killing shifts versus who is creating or saving them. Starts with the breakout and how they're executed. Breakouts are practiced as much as anything else at nearly every level of hockey, and most of the time it's the only thing a coach will yammer about. There are volumes written on breakout tactics and every coach uses them one way or another.

Panicking with the puck is the No. 1 reason a shift gets killed. That's what I'm looking for -- who's calm, who's buying time and space, who's passing it to the right guy and is it accurate, etc.

How has Lindstein fared in your viewings? Any thoughts on what his ceiling might be as a pro?

 

[FinPanda]

Lassila

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

I'm talking about stats at the WJC.

Hi Steve, appreciate your thoughts and methodology, I share a very similar approach when analyzing performances here. I was curious how Ohgren has showed for you so far, as, for me, he has had a pretty solid tourney without putting up many points.

I have liked his possession and defensive game a lot, good puck carrying and board battles, very conservative pro style to his play. Lack of finishing and a couple of quick touch passes that failed to find their mark of have been the drawbacks in my eyes, but overall he’s been a strong positive to me, curious if you have seen anything differently with him.

 

[theslatcher]

Dionicio reminds me of Josi, and not just because of his nationality.

 

[Mike Liut]

All 7 of the Blues prospects are having a great tourney

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

Jesse Pulkkinen. A big defender with very complete skills.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Still going over data from 12/31 but I finished USA vs CZE

Hutson had 20 positive plays and eight bad plays to lead the U.S. Chesley with 16-2, Moore with 11-2. And if we just stick with clean passes and any other good decision, Finley was near the top again, while Nazar was in the middle.

Gauthier was the worst of any U.S. skater in the Czech game but all almost entirely from bad passes that killed possessions. I also docked him a few times for poor shot selection on the PP. I know all about the Gretzky quote, but shots that miss the net by a foot and are cleared out or lead to an opposing counter is a negative play IMO.

Again, this is just for my own purposes because watching the same game twice is more than enough for me to deduce the good and bad from a full 18-skater lineup. Those /60 charts are useless to me personally, but I watch every game and don’t need them to tell me anything.