Which Player has a "Sophomore Slump" Season in 18/19

[lomiller1]

Given the normal range is 7-9, and only the best of the best live in the 9-10% range and almost nobody lives past he 10% range then a lot of these options would be good candidates.

Gourde, Hischier, and Debrusk would be the best candidates though.

All else being equal you'd Hischier's development to more or less offset regression in his sh%. Players develop fast from 18 to 19 years so his point totals could go up 20% or so just from that growth. If his point totals are elevated 20% due to sh% the two should balance out.

YMMV though. Maybe he has a below normal sh% next year, or maybe he has another above normal one, or maybe his development is faster or slower. On average though I'd expect him to come in around similar numbers.

 

[wingnutks]

I mean Trotz is a good coach but didn't the Isles defense get worse this off season losing CDH and not really doing anything to fill the hole and really the only additions to the team have been 4th line plugs. Seems like a recipe for a hell of a lot of time in the defensive zone and they still don't really have a goalie....so maybe they aren't a raging tire fire like they were last year and more of just a simmering tire fire?

I agree on the D core. But Pulock was trending upwards very quickly the second half of the year with his play on the defensive side of the puck, and Boychuk also being back should help things. Also our defensive problems wasent our d core, it was TEAM defense that was bad.

 

[DFF]

Barzal because the whole Islanders team were playing street hockey last year.

All their numbers will go down

 

[bob27]

All else being equal you'd Hischier's development to more or less offset regression in his sh%. Players develop fast from 18 to 19 years so his point totals could go up 20% or so just from that growth. If his point totals are elevated 20% due to sh% the two should balance out.

Players also sometimes have pretty big sophomore slumps from 18 to 19, see McKinnon. Devils in general seem like a safe bet to take one step back before taking two forward.

 

[Pi]

Gourde feels like the most likely candidate.

 

[JoVel]

I think Barzal is legit. Maybe he doesn't hit 85, but he'd have to score <70 for me to call it a slump.

Gourde, on the other hand, would be lucky to hit 50.

He could regress a bit but to be lucky to hit 50? Lol.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I would be surprised to see Barzal match 85 points this year but he has room to regress a little and still not have a disappointing season.

 

[boredmale]

I would be surprised to see Barzal match 85 points this year but he has room to regress a little and still not have a disappointing season.

My biased 2 cents say Barzal PP numbers and icetime improve, but his 5 on 5 numbers will go down

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I mean Gourde didn’t play PP1 this year either. And only spent about half the year in the top 6.

That's my point. When a player produces like Gourde with a high on ice shooting percentage AND doesn't get the minutes you'd normally need to keep that production sustainable, they're a candidate for major regression.

While not a rookie, it reminds me of Conor Sheary plummeting down to earth after a 53 point in 61 game season two years ago.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

That's my point. When a player produces like Gourde with a high on ice shooting percentage AND doesn't get the minutes you'd normally need to keep that production sustainable, they're a candidate for major regression.

While not a rookie, it reminds me of Conor Sheary plummeting down to earth after a 53 point in 61 game season two years ago.

Sheary did play top 6 tho he was practically glued to crosby

 

[Canada4Gold]

All else being equal you'd Hischier's development to more or less offset regression in his sh%. Players develop fast from 18 to 19 years so his point totals could go up 20% or so just from that growth. If his point totals are elevated 20% due to sh% the two should balance out.

YMMV though. Maybe he has a below normal sh% next year, or maybe he has another above normal one, or maybe his development is faster or slower. On average though I'd expect him to come in around similar numbers.

Oh it absolutely can and probably will be offset by that. My point was that the easiest way to guess who's going to have "sophomore slumps" is to just guess the top few names from the highest on ice sh% from their rookie season. That accounts for probably 80% of the sophomore slumps people see rather than an actual change in anything that people want to attribute it to. So I just listed the top 3 guys from the poll.

Should also note that it's more often defence who are affected by this given they score less so more of their points get arrtbuted to luck of teammates shooting. Ghost being the best example lately. But there were no defencemen in the poll that were extremely high or that would have probably been my #1 guess.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Barzal is going to have to carry more of the offence and play more of a two way game, so I see him slumping numbers-wise, but ending up a better player in the long run.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Sheary did play top 6 tho he was practically glued to crosby

Not as much this past year. And he never played top PP unit, which is where a lot of these depth/complimentary players need to play to pad their stats.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I think all of Gourde, Sergachev, Dubois, Hischier and Barzal take a step back. How much of a step back is up to question, but I think they are likely candidates.

But if I had to pick one, I think Butcher will fall back the most.

 

[Steve]

Gotta be Barzal, it would be tough for anyone to repeat that. Now with out Tavares and everyone out to shut him down?? His future looks amazing but I expect this year to be a little tougher than last.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Barzal because of the tougher matchups and Trotz.

 

[Volica]

Barzal is gonna put up 90+ points this season. Haters watch out!

TO fans really clamoring for Barzal to fail, to point at Tavares. This kid's a stud. Wouldn't be surprised if he hits 75-90 points next season. NYI is going to be trash; so, there's that to consider as well.

Yanni Gourde is not a 64 point NHL'er.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Barzal is gonna put up 90+ points this season. Haters watch out!

Yep. First rookie to score 85 points since Malkin. I think Barzal gets underrated because of where he was drafted. If he was a top three pick people wouldn’t see his season as an anomaly. After this season he’ll get the respect he deserves.
With Tavares gone it’s going to be clear just how great Barzal is.

 

[isles55]

His team might play defense this season.

The only thing the Islanders did last season was play defense. With any competent coaching, the Islanders should be able to get the puck out of their zone once in a while and give Barzal a chance to score.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Again, I ask, what exactly would be considered a "sophomore slump"? Because I don't think Barzal still producing 75+ points is a slump. A sophomore slump would be closer to what Nathan MacKinnon had, when he went from a 63 point ROY campaign to a measly 38 points the following year.