Which is more likely - McDavid scores 200 points or any single player scores 80 goals?

[Cloned]

Which one?

For the purposes of the poll, that single player in option 2 can also be McDavid.

Click to read more...

 

[Lil Tuzzi Bert]

Going to say McDavid hitting 200 points is more likely. Matthews has a good chance of getting 50 maybe 60 goals if healthy but 80 would be unimaginable

 

[Cloned]

Going to say McDavid hitting 200 points is more likely. Matthews has a good chance of getting 50 maybe 60 goals if healthy but 80 would be unimaginable

Fair, although no player has really come close to either in recent memory.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Neither will happen but 200 is more likely

 

[blundluntman]

Only one player has ever scored 200, but 3 players have scored 80 (a few others got pretty close too). 80 seems more likely to me

 

[Ginger Papa]

As others, such as @Pizza!Pizza! have mentioned in the 6 points/game poll thread, the biggest hurdle for McDavid to accumulate more Points is his Coach.

If there is a Coaching change & the next one is more like Sather was with Gretzky & company, then I think either option is possible.

As hard as it was to watch the 80’s Oilers rack up the leads and blow out my Canucks and Jets, I can appreciate smirking Sather’s philosophy.

Let the Boys run and set/smash records.

I wish Tippet had some Sather in his personality, but he’d rather bench the top 2 lines after they build a 4 or 5 goal lead after 1 period.

ps. Thanks for the Thread @Cloned

 

[blundluntman]

As others, such as @Pizza!Pizza! have mentioned in the 6 points/game poll thread, the biggest hurdle for McDavid to accumulate more Points is his Coach.

If there is a Coaching change & the next one is more like Sather was with Gretzky & company, then I think either option is possible.

As hard as it was to watch the 80’s Oilers rack up the leads and blow out my Canucks and Jets, I can appreciate smirking Sather’s philosophy.

Let the Boys run and set/smash records.

I wish Tippet had some Sather in his personality, but he’d rather bench the top 2 lines after they build a 4 or 5 goal lead after 1 period.
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ps. Thanks for the Thread @Cloned

I'm a huge McDavid fan but I don't think he can go from a 150 pace to 200 simply by compling in blowouts. I think he'd have to hit another gear entirely

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Neither will happen obviously, but 80 goals is simply impossible in todays age.

200 is far from the realm of reason, but its easier for an elite playmaker to accumulate points.

 

[wetcoast]

Neither will happen but 200 is more likely

Pretty much this although I wonder if the poll was 170 points and 70 goals which way it would go?

 

[Regal]

The smaller the number the easier it is to be influenced by variance so I'll say goals. You only have to focus on one aspect of scoring and its easier to get crazy hot. We've seen some players go roughly a goal per game for longer stretches than anyone has put up a 200 point pace.

 

[Puck Dogg]

When they played 82 games in 2018-19 Tampa had most goals with 319. So its a crapshoot between the two as they are not reachable in today's NHL.

 

[bobholly39]

People are crazy lol. 200 points? No chance.

Matthews had a stretch of 45 games last year where he scored 39 goals. That paces out to 71 goals in 82 games....and didn't he have a wrist injury/wasn't even 100% a lot of the season? 9 goals off pace, that's 3 extra hat tricks, or no injury, seems fairly doable.

Pretty sure Matthews/Ovi/Pastrnak were all on pace for 65+ goals for most of the prior season too. Much easier to score 10-15 more goals than to score 70+ more points (Kucherov 128 is highest total in 25 years)

 

[ted2019]

McDavid and 200 points. He has the talent around him to get to that possibly, while the goalies are so much better these days athletically that no one has a true shot to get to 80 goals.

 

[bobholly39]

McDavid and 200 points. He has the talent around him to get to that possibly, while the goalies are so much better these days athletically that no one has a true shot to get to 80 goals.

The most goals a team has scored in the NHL in the past 25 years are the Lightning in 2018-2019 with 319 goals. Only 4x in the past 25 years has a team ever scored above 300 goals.
Scoring is a bit up lately - but I see no reason to expect next year to be the highest scoring season in the past 25 years. Post-lockout was very high scoring for example.
The highest total of team goals Edmonton has scored since McDavid entered the league was 243, in the 2016-2017 season (so - they never really score a lot).

McDavid last season was in on 57.3% of his team goals. (105 points vs 183 goals). Fantastic performance, this the highest % on team goals all-time, slightly beating out Lemieux's 89 season. This got a lot of press last season, very impressive, an all-time record.

57.3% from 319 goals (Tampa 2019, highest total in 25 years) is 182 points
57.3% from 300 goals (4x since 1997) is 171 points
57.3% from 243 goals (Edmonton's highest total since McDavid) is 139 points

Looking at it inversely.

If Edmonton scores 319 goals (tying highest output in 25 years) - McDavid would have to score on 62.6% of team goals to reach 200 points.
If Edmonton scores 300 goals (only achieved 4x in 25 years) - McDavid would have to score on 66.66% of teams goals to reach 200 points.
If Edmonton scores 243 goals (their highest total since McDavid) - McDavid would have to score on 82.3% of team goals to reach 200 points.
If Edmonton scores 268 goals (their pace over 82 games last season) - McDavid would have to score on 74.9% of team goals to reach 200 points.

There's been many stretches of players going a goal per game for ~20-30 games in recent years. Matthews just paced for 65 goals, the year prior all of Matthews/Pastrnak/Ovi were on pace for 65+ for a lot of the season. You really think based on the above, McDavid scoring 200 points is more likely than a goal-scorer getting hot and scoring ~15 more goals than expected?

 

[shelf]

Last year McDavids pace was 153.75 points. So 76.9% of 200 points. Matthews pace was 64.65 goals so 80.8% of 80 goals. Neither are going to happen. But i'll go with the one that was statistically closer and thats Matthews. In the last 35 years no one has scored 200+ points. But in the last 35 years 2 people have scored 80+ goals.

 

[kp61c]

The third option: both options above are equally absurd.

 

[TGWL]

People are crazy lol. 200 points? No chance.

Matthews had a stretch of 45 games last year where he scored 39 goals. That paces out to 71 goals in 82 games....and didn't he have a wrist injury/wasn't even 100% a lot of the season? 9 goals off pace, that's 3 extra hat tricks, or no injury, seems fairly doable.

Pretty sure Matthews/Ovi/Pastrnak were all on pace for 65+ goals for most of the prior season too. Much easier to score 10-15 more goals than to score 70+ more points (Kucherov 128 is highest total in 25 years)

If you're going to use pace than you shouldn't exclude the rest of the games. He finished with 41 in 52 games. I mean, McDavid had 62 points in his last 30 games. What's 30 more points to hit 200 pace?

Anyway, I agree that hitting 200 isn't very likely but I don't see Matthews hitting 80 either.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Scoring would have to return to 80s/90s levels for either one to happen.

 

[McFlash97]

200 points is insanity. So is 80 goals.

a more apt comparison would be if McDavid can get 200 points or if any single player gets 90 + goals.

 

[pld459666]

Which one?

For the purposes of the poll, that single player in option 2 can also be McDavid.

Neither

 

[Albatros]

80 goals in the future, might take decades though.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Ovechkin came 15 goals away in 2008. The closest anyone has come to 200 points besides 66 and 99 was 155 30 plus years ago

 

[Hockey Outsider]

McDavid scoring 200 points is vastly more difficult than someone scoring 80 goals next year.

My model estimates that McDavid has about a 1 in 900,000 chance of scoring 200 points next year. The model also estimates that Auston Matthews alone - ignoring every other player in the league - has about a 1 in 1,100 chance of scoring 80 goals. Both are extraordinarily unlikely - but Matthews scoring 80 goals is much less unlikely than McDavid scoring 200 points. (Injuries are ignored in both of these forecasts - but that assumption only helps McDavid). You can play around with some of the assumptions that go into the model, but it doesn't change the conclusion. (The model is based on the Poisson probability distribution, which has been demonstrated to be highly accurate in modelling the likelihood of different levels of output at both the team and individual level).

The poll results (currently favouring McDavid by roughly a 57-43% margin) show that people struggle to understand and compare very low-probability events.

 

[amnesiac]

Its pretty clear....

Ovie and Stamkos scored over 60 in the past 15 years, this in a low scoring era.

No one's had over 128 pts in 25 years, and that done on a higher scoring era. A far cry from 200.

 

[SUX2BU]

Neither