Which is more likely - Colorado finishing last or Ottawa winning the Cup?
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King Karl
five-year run of unparalleled suffering
EdJovanovski
#RempeForCalder
Colorado finishing last would only require absurdities within one team, perhaps MacKinnon & Makar sustaining major injuries sidelining them for nearly the whole season. Ottawa winning the cup would require many absurdities to all align together.
- Apr 27, 2005
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Easier for a bad team to get hot for 25 games than a good team go cold for 82.
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Pretty sure Makar, the entire 1st line, and Kuemper could all be injured all season and they'd still finish above Arizona and Buffalo.
Cloned
Begging for Bega
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Would your answer change if the poll option was Detroit winning the Cup?
- Apr 27, 2005
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Cloned
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ReginKarlssonLehner
Let's Win It All
Cloned
Begging for Bega
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ReginKarlssonLehner
Let's Win It All
To be honest, when SJ acquired EK, how many people saw them plummeting the way they did?
But then again, Montreal last year could very well be Ottawa this year, so both have some legitimacy--in theory. Ottawa's scenario is more likely, though, mostly because Ottawa is not the worst team in the league, while Colorado is close to the best.
But then again, Montreal last year could very well be Ottawa this year, so both have some legitimacy--in theory. Ottawa's scenario is more likely, though, mostly because Ottawa is not the worst team in the league, while Colorado is close to the best.
- Apr 27, 2005
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Still would pick buffalo. Sure it's unlikely they'd even make the playoffs, but stranger things have happened.
And as unlikely as it sounds, it's even more unlikely for a team like Colorado to lose 50+ games.
EXTRAS
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- Jul 31, 2012
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Colorado finishing last is more likely.
If Mackinnon + Makar + Rantanen became injured there would be a chance it could happen.
In order for Ottawa to win the cup they probably need all their young guys to hit full potential at once, and then need to hit a few teams in the playoffs on real slides. Just don't see it happening.
If Mackinnon + Makar + Rantanen became injured there would be a chance it could happen.
In order for Ottawa to win the cup they probably need all their young guys to hit full potential at once, and then need to hit a few teams in the playoffs on real slides. Just don't see it happening.
blundluntman
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With the whole pandemic thing, maybe Colorado has to forfeit the season or something?
North Cole
♧ Lem
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Interestingly the probabilities are the same. 1/32 = 16/32*1/2^4 (3.125%).
Given that it takes 82 games to finish last, but 82+16 games to win a cup, I'd lean toward Colorado keeping all else equal. With all else not being equal then the answer depends on how much better Colorado is compared to the worst team, versus how much worse Ottawa is compared to the top 16 teams * how much worse Ottawa is compared to each of it's 4 playoff opponents.
At minimum those 1/2 chances become much less than 50% as Ottawa advances further into the playoffs since the margin between teams will become greater. Think if you were to somehow do a game by game probability analysis, the answer would be Colorado having an easier time bottoming out than Ottawa winning the cup. This is probably borne out by intuition as well since we routinely seen the president's trophy teams lose in the playoffs, whereas the team finishing last has no additional requirements to fufill.
If the Poll was - Ottawa winning the Presidents trophy and the Cup VS Colorado finishing last and winning the lottery - I would have more trouble choosing. That would be 1/32*1/16 VS 1/32*1/2^4, which also presents the same chance per team (0.195%) but is harder intuitively since complexity is introduced for both parties, rather than just Ottawa in the OP.
Given that it takes 82 games to finish last, but 82+16 games to win a cup, I'd lean toward Colorado keeping all else equal. With all else not being equal then the answer depends on how much better Colorado is compared to the worst team, versus how much worse Ottawa is compared to the top 16 teams * how much worse Ottawa is compared to each of it's 4 playoff opponents.
At minimum those 1/2 chances become much less than 50% as Ottawa advances further into the playoffs since the margin between teams will become greater. Think if you were to somehow do a game by game probability analysis, the answer would be Colorado having an easier time bottoming out than Ottawa winning the cup. This is probably borne out by intuition as well since we routinely seen the president's trophy teams lose in the playoffs, whereas the team finishing last has no additional requirements to fufill.
If the Poll was - Ottawa winning the Presidents trophy and the Cup VS Colorado finishing last and winning the lottery - I would have more trouble choosing. That would be 1/32*1/16 VS 1/32*1/2^4, which also presents the same chance per team (0.195%) but is harder intuitively since complexity is introduced for both parties, rather than just Ottawa in the OP.
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Why are you grouping Detroit with Buffalo, but not mentioning teams like Anaheim, New Jersey, Ottawa, San Jose and Columbus?
- Apr 27, 2005
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I think it's a lot more likely that a bad team sneaks into the playoffs and then rides a hot goalie vs a bad team winning the presidents trophy. History would agree with this.
King Karl
five-year run of unparalleled suffering
First ones that came to mind to be honest, not intended to be an exhaustive list.
Ottawa was at something like a 90 or 100 point pace after their disastrous first 15 games last year.
If the point of the question was to ask whether a bad team had a better chance of winning the cup, well you picked the wrong example. Ottawa has a much better chance of winning the cup than the Avs do of finishing last.
If the point of the question was to ask whether a bad team had a better chance of winning the cup, well you picked the wrong example. Ottawa has a much better chance of winning the cup than the Avs do of finishing last.
Gurglesons
Registered User
Also health could wipe out the Avs, there is no magic potion to win a SC with a team in the situation Ottawa is in as it's unlikely that they even make the playoffs as not only would they have to be really good then get incredibly lucky, 4 or 5 teams would have to have incredibly bad luck as well.
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
All it takes is a few injuries for Colorado.
Ottawa probably isn’t a playoff contender next season, but I don’t think they are so bad that it’s impossible they make it.
Both are very unlikely. I see it as slightly more likely Ottawa wins the Cup.
Ottawa probably isn’t a playoff contender next season, but I don’t think they are so bad that it’s impossible they make it.
Both are very unlikely. I see it as slightly more likely Ottawa wins the Cup.
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