Thinking it'll be 3rd last.
Carolina, Columbus, Ottawa, New Jersey, and Dallas are all (mentally) in the race for the wild card, they're all competing. They all have good Win%'s in their last 20 games, better than the Leafs. Columbus is faltering a bit, they're the only team ahead of us that has a chance to fall further than us.
Edmonton has been playing quite well lately, and are ~.500 over their last 20 games. Their schedule to close out the season has only 8/19 games against playoff teams. Toronto also have 8/19 against playoff teams, but the Leafs have a worse win% over the past 20 games (around ~.200, and are way more demoralized).
So I think Edmonton will leap-frog ARI and TOR.
ARI has to play 12/19 against playoff opponents, though they do have to play BUFFALO twice! So there's a chance the Leafs could do worse than them, but not a great one.
Hence, 3rd last.