Speculation: Where do we finish in the Standings?
- Thread starter OilerPensfan97
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BobCole
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- May 21, 2014
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Maybe I'm jaded, but I see the Pens regressing this year, at least from a W/L standpoint.
Here's how I compare the 2014-15 roster to last year's:
- The top 6 is worse*
- The bottom 6 is drastically improved
- The D is a wash**
- Goaltending is a wash***
- The coaching situation is probably improved, but growing pains should probably be expected
- Most importantly, we have to account for the combined effect of all of the roster turnover & the coaching/management overhaul. I hope that it all coalesces and the team gels, but I expect an adjustment period that will take a toll on the loss column. That could manifest itself in a slow start, or perhaps by the team chalking up less "easy Ws" than it has in the past while they are adapting to the change.
* Last year we had 3 bonafide top 6 wingers (Neal, Kunitz, Jokinen) and only one question mark. This year we have 2 (Kunitz, Hornqvist) and two question marks.
** Orpik = addition by subtraction. Niskanen = a huge minute eater who Ehrhoff will hopefully replace. Scuds will only regress further this year IMHO (I'll be shocked if he's on our game day roster by season's end). Maatta seems primed for a sophomore slump (this isn't meant as a slight, his rookie year was spectacular, but by season's end he was waning and I can't see him repeating last year's performance coming off of a major offseason injury). I'm ecstatic to see some of the kids (Despres isn't even a kid anymore) but I expect growing pains while they adjust to the NHL.
*** Greiss is a fantastic insurance policy but MAF was actually great in the regular season last year and is in a contract year now. I don't see our goaltending performance actually improving in a meaningful way statistically, even with Greiss in the fold.
Here's how I compare the 2014-15 roster to last year's:
- The top 6 is worse*
- The bottom 6 is drastically improved
- The D is a wash**
- Goaltending is a wash***
- The coaching situation is probably improved, but growing pains should probably be expected
- Most importantly, we have to account for the combined effect of all of the roster turnover & the coaching/management overhaul. I hope that it all coalesces and the team gels, but I expect an adjustment period that will take a toll on the loss column. That could manifest itself in a slow start, or perhaps by the team chalking up less "easy Ws" than it has in the past while they are adapting to the change.
* Last year we had 3 bonafide top 6 wingers (Neal, Kunitz, Jokinen) and only one question mark. This year we have 2 (Kunitz, Hornqvist) and two question marks.
** Orpik = addition by subtraction. Niskanen = a huge minute eater who Ehrhoff will hopefully replace. Scuds will only regress further this year IMHO (I'll be shocked if he's on our game day roster by season's end). Maatta seems primed for a sophomore slump (this isn't meant as a slight, his rookie year was spectacular, but by season's end he was waning and I can't see him repeating last year's performance coming off of a major offseason injury). I'm ecstatic to see some of the kids (Despres isn't even a kid anymore) but I expect growing pains while they adjust to the NHL.
*** Greiss is a fantastic insurance policy but MAF was actually great in the regular season last year and is in a contract year now. I don't see our goaltending performance actually improving in a meaningful way statistically, even with Greiss in the fold.
Waffle Fries
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- Mar 7, 2013
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66-30-33
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Pick87your71Poison
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We also led the entire NHL in man games lost last year by over 100... that can't be entirely ignored. Significant time to Malkin, Neal, Letang, Martin, Beau, Dupuis etc. Not saying we can't do it again but *hopefully* we will be at least a little better.
BobCole
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- May 21, 2014
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You're probably right and I'm just being jaded. I'm nonetheless a tad worried that we'll see more gaffes than we're used to as a result of the young guys getting acclimated to the NHL game. But yes, on the whole it's probably a better unit.
BobCole
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- May 21, 2014
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This could open up a whole other can of worms, but I have no reason to expect we'll be any *less* injured this year. Half of the roster (and mostly higher end guys) are either injured or recovering from injury already. It's like we're cursed.
Speaking Moistly
What a terrible image.
But wouldn't that be balanced out by a system that isn't stupid? Which I think is the point, the defense improved a lot, the bottom 6 improved greatly, goal tending improved with Greiss over Zatkoff and coaching will be an improvement over the previous regime's incredibly low bar; but it's a new system, the top 6 is still lacking and the defense isn't experienced. Overall I'd say they're in a better place and even them struggling in the beginning will be balanced out.
Injuries are the question mark. The system could help, but the team seems kind of cursed as well.
cheesedanish87
Registered User
I love the fact that they are going into the season with lower expectations(at least from the national media) I think it would be great for them to go into the playoffs with no pressure and low expectations.
Our top six will produce at the same as last year, our bottom six is 100x better, and our defense is significantly better. Pens are the best team in the conference.
Pete Gas
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- Jul 10, 2012
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I think so too. I hope it works out that way as well. I think Boston isn't gonna be as dominant as others think. Chara is getting up there in age, Seidenberg is coming off surgery and he isn't as young anymore. Tampa is the "experts" pick but after getting swept in the playoffs I don't know how they can come to that conclusion. I don't think they will be as good as those people say. Montreal isn't that much different than last season, and they lost a scorer in Vanek and didn't replace him. I think the Rangers will be involved again before Tampa or Montreal.
Ogrezilla
Nerf Herder
BobCole
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Ugene Magic
EVIL LAUGH
I wouldn't be shocked if they stumbled for the first half and they get in with 97/99 points after they get things going, and I wouldn't have one problem with it.
Top 4 in the conference.
Top 4 in the conference.
stepdad gaary
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- Dec 5, 2011
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cajal
Go Pens!
Third or fourth in the conference, but they won't be that high at the halfway point of the season.
Penguinator
Kesselator
Best post i've read here in a while, as far as the big picture goes anyway, quite the résumé!
I don't believe in curses* though...
* mathematically speaking these 'things' end as far as probabilities go.
Jaded-Fan
Registered User
We are back to questions of how the new system will take, and if Johnson is any good as a HC in the NHL. Huge questions, as well as a complete rebuilding of a third of the team.
That said, this team has shown that they can win, a lot, regular season, because of Crosby and Malkin mostly.
I will go out on a limb and say that the team will be better equipped for the playoffs, but may step back slightly regular season. 95 points.
That said, this team has shown that they can win, a lot, regular season, because of Crosby and Malkin mostly.
I will go out on a limb and say that the team will be better equipped for the playoffs, but may step back slightly regular season. 95 points.
Iffyiffiffer
Moo
- May 10, 2010
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Every player that matters is back. Despres is playing instead of Orpik. The defensive system probably isn't stupid. The breakout probably won't be stupid. The bottom 6 won't be totally useless. I have no idea why we'd regress. We went from no real system to a new system. Not knowing a system is still better than no system other than dump ins from your own goal line.
I just don't see the Pens going anywhere this year.
As stated before, top 6 is worse, bottom 6 slightly better, defense is meh...
I believe that the talking heads are right, Tampa, Boston, and Montreal and WAY above the Pens is terms of overall talent and depth.
I bet that they don't win the Metro and end up seeded middle of the pack, losing in the 1st or second round yet again.
As stated before, top 6 is worse, bottom 6 slightly better, defense is meh...
I believe that the talking heads are right, Tampa, Boston, and Montreal and WAY above the Pens is terms of overall talent and depth.
I bet that they don't win the Metro and end up seeded middle of the pack, losing in the 1st or second round yet again.
NewAgeOutlaw
Belie Dat!
I don't see how anybody could begin to guess how they will do in the playoffs this year so I am going to reserve my judgement on that until I've seen them play roughly 40 games under Johnston.
I don't get the hype for Boston, Montreal or Tampa. Boston doesn't have the depth they had a few years ago and probably need to retool to become a top contender again. Montreal is weak offensively and lost a major weapon in Vanek. Tampa is an upcoming team with a sub-par defense who is probably asking too much of their young talent and I fully expect them not to live up to these lofty expectations.
Obviously the Penguins have questions too, especially top-6, coaching, and health questions but the east is ripe for the taking this year so if the Penguins can play well under new coaching and aquire a key piece at the deadline they could make some waves. I just don't fear the Canadiens, Bolts or Bruins as currently constructed, they all have just as many if not more holes than the Penguins. Fully expect to win the Metro and finish top 3 in the east.
Also "bottom 6 slightly better" is the understatement of the century. They were carrying dead weight last year and were not built to compete with other top teams in terms of physicality and aggresiveness. At the very least now they should be somewhat tough to play against which is just what this team needs.
cygnus47
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- Sep 14, 2013
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Metro is between us and NYR. They have questions with their top scorers, we have questions with our secondary scorers. Our D is possibly the best in the league (without Scuds anyway) while NYR is relying on Boyle and Girardi playing great D which is far from certain. Obviously Lundqvist > Fleury. All the other Metro teams are too flawed to really challenge for the East.
Boston will take a step back due to lack of D, Montreal a small step forward because I think Galchenyuk is in for a big year. Tampa could go either way, they are very young and Palat, Johnson and Bishop have to be as good as last year. They will score a lot, but they might also get scored ON a lot.
So all of that said i think we'll probably be ~100 points, ranked 2-4 depending on how well teams like Philly and Jersey play us and whether we can avoid a second year of ridiculous numbers of injures.
Boston will take a step back due to lack of D, Montreal a small step forward because I think Galchenyuk is in for a big year. Tampa could go either way, they are very young and Palat, Johnson and Bishop have to be as good as last year. They will score a lot, but they might also get scored ON a lot.
So all of that said i think we'll probably be ~100 points, ranked 2-4 depending on how well teams like Philly and Jersey play us and whether we can avoid a second year of ridiculous numbers of injures.
Ragamuffin Gunner
Lost in the Flood
Sleep wak their way to another Metro win. Prolly 1st in the East as MTL and TB are better, which will hurt the Bs.
