When will Matthews win his first Rocket?

[Dekes For Days]

About as much as your posts have to do with the actual topic, which is raw totals in order to win the Rocket? I figure if you can transition into a broader discussion about production, so can I.

I didn't transition to a broader topic. Other individuals in the thread transitioned into a broader discussion about the quality of goal-scorer Matthews was historically, which I added a couple important points to.

You mean other than evidence I can easily provide as opposed to you just saying so making it true?

You haven't provided any evidence of your claim, ever.

Do I have to post Matthews' ES P/60 rates each of his seasons and his TOI/GP each of his seasons to show there is literally zero evidence that the ES P/60 rates will remain EXACTLY THE SAME with increase in ice time?

We can look at Matthews' ES and PP P/60 rates, and see normal fluctuations in production from season to season, like we see for all players, regardless of how their TOI changes. This has nothing to do with TOI, despite your attempts to arbitrarily claim causation with no proof. We also see that Matthews' ES goals per 60 and primary points per 60 actually rose from last year, despite the significant increase in ES TOI/GP. We also see that Matthews' PP P/60 has remained at a constant elite level through all sorts of linemate situations and TOI amounts. Which is especially important because the PP is what has had the biggest impact on Matthews' raw production relative to his peers.

No it hasn't. For years you've argued the only difference between Matthews' production and a guy like McDavid came down to Matthews getting around 18 or so minutes per night and McDavid getting 21+ minutes per night.

That is false. The only real time I've discussed Matthews being close to McDavid is their pre-signing periods, where McDavid and Matthews had a difference in their ES+PP time of 1:39. Not anywhere close to 4 minutes, and McDavid was one of the more extreme examples.

I'm talking about production being linear with increased ice time per game, not games played. So I'm not sure what this has to do with that discussion.

Both are the same principles. Do we care about about the opportunity factors involved in the production or not? Should we trust that people are who they've proven to be over hundreds of games/thousands of minutes, and compare players accurately and logically, or should we assume that a player would suddenly forget what hockey is and produce absolutely nothing in the time difference?

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

He's been the best goal scorer in the league for a while now. Only thing that has been holding back the rocket is the amount of PP time lesser talented goal scorers are getting. That could change this season. Noteably Keefe's Marlies were top of the league in PP opportunities, if Keefe brings Leafs even to middle of the pack in how much of games are played on special teams, absolutely he will win it.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

He's been the best goal scorer in the league for a while now. Only thing that has been holding back the rocket is the amount of PP time lesser talented goal scorers are getting. That could change this season. Noteably Keefe's Marlies were top of the league in PP opportunities, if Keefe brings Leafs even to middle of the pack in how much of games are played on special teams, absolutely he will win it.

He has not been the best scorer in the league. That would be Ovechkin no matter what type of cherry picked stats you want to use. The best goal scorer wins the Rocket.
He’s in the mix with a few others though for second best. Last year he was third best but close to the top two goal scorers.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

He has not been the best scorer in the league. That would be Ovechkin no matter what type of cherry picked stats you want to use. The best goal scorer wins the Rocket.
He’s in the mix with a few others though for second best. Last year he was third best but close to the top two goal scorers.

will you think he's the best if he wins the rocket?

 

[WetcoastOrca]

will you think he's the best if he wins the rocket?

Yes. Clearly he would be the best for that year.

 

[Dache]

Crosby missed a bunch of time throughout his career, and technically has less points than Ovechkin. Is he a worse player/point producer than Ovechkin?

What does this have to do with p60? This is about missing entire games, so you’re now talking about p/pg?

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Yes. Clearly he would be the best for that year.

that's the thing, in my opinion the person who just scored the most amount of goals is not how i define the best goal scorer. there is context that will greatly affect how many goals the best goal scorers score, a lot of which can be completely out of the player's hand. so we're just caught up on semantics.

 

[Dache]

will you think he's the best if he wins the rocket?

If he wins the rocket it’s nearly indisputable that he was the best goal scorer that year. Now the question is if he wins the rocket but doesn’t have the best goals p60, will certain other fans say he’s not the best?

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

If he wins the rocket it’s nearly indisputable that he was the best goal scorer that year. Now the question is if he wins the rocket but doesn’t have the best goals p60, will certain other fans say he’s not the best?

Goal scoring is talent and imo needs to be proven over a body of work, not just a single season. if someone is producing better 5v5 g/60 and PP g/60 over a body of like 3+ seasons then absolutely imo that player will be a better goal scorer than any rocket winner in a year who happened to have shit tons of PP time that year.

 

[Dache]

Goal scoring is talent and imo needs to be proven over a body of work, not just a single season. if someone is producing better 5v5 g/60 and PP g/60 over a body of like 3+ seasons then absolutely imo that player will be a better goal scorer than any rocket winner in a year who happened to have shit tons of PP time that year.

So if Matthews wins the rocket next year but a different player has more goals p/60 Matthews is still better because...reasons?

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

The rocket is an award that is awarded to a player for being a top-1o to 15 scorer in the league AND getting like top-5 power-play time.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

So if Matthews wins the rocket next year but a different player has more goals p/60 Matthews is still better because...reasons?

This question is random -- has nothing to do with the comment you replied. I made my opinion pretty clear in my post.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

that's the thing, in my opinion the person who just scored the most amount of goals is not how i define the best goal scorer. there is context that will greatly affect how many goals the best goal scorers score, a lot of which can be completely out of the player's hand. so we're just caught up on semantics.

The problem with that definition is that you can make a case for at least for about four guys. The Rocket takes out all of the bias. It’s a red line test. And frankly I don’t buy the opportunity argument. If someone is the best goal scorer in the league then the coach will give that player every opportunity as it gives the team the best chance to win. Unless of course the coach is not very good.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

The rocket is an award that is awarded to a player for being a top-1o to 15 scorer in the league AND getting like top-5 power-play time.

The Rocket is awarded to the player who scores the most goals and takes all the bias out of the discussion by fans who want to push a player they cheer for. There has never in the history of hockey been a great goal scorer who didn’t win multiple Rockets. So obviously it works well to assess who the best goal scorers down through history have been.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

The problem with that definition is that you can make a case for at least for about four guys. The Rocket takes out all of the bias. It’s a red line test. And frankly I don’t buy the opportunity argument. If someone is the best goal scorer in the league then the coach will give that player every opportunity as it gives the team the best chance to win. Unless of course the coach is not very good.

- there is pretty large disparity between teams that gets lots of special teams time and those that get least
- over last 10 years the total number of pp opportunities per season have varied greatly (for those who point to Ovi/Stamkos' monster seasons)
- some teams just have deep offensive roster (e.g., leafs) where they run PP1A/1B that runs 50/50 split on PP time instead of a heavily stacked PP1 that plays 80% of PP time, just a strategic thing. Babcock did it, but looks like it will change under Keefe (hence my vote for Matthews winning 20/21)

Those aspects are typically out of players' hands.

The rocket gives a nice scalar list, but like i said it's a nice novelty number that folks get excited about, but when it comes to goal scoring talent in my opinion, while you obviously have to be an elite scorer to get there (like I mentioned like top10-15 scorer to be in that tier), i look to other signals to see who the best goal scorer is.

i'll be 100% consistent with it if someone else produces a body of work where they're playing top offensive line on their team, 18+ minutes a night and eclipsing matthews' 5v5 g/60 over a body of multiple seasons I think that player probably will be a better goal scorer. when talking about labelling a scorer by using production, that's just what makes most sense to me. not the rocket.

 

[Dache]

The rocket is an award that is awarded to a player for being a top-1o to 15 scorer in the league AND getting like top-5 power-play time.

That is incorrect entirely.

 

[Dache]

This question is random -- has nothing to do with the comment you replied. I made my opinion pretty clear in my post.

You made your bias clear, that’s about all

 

[WetcoastOrca]

- there is pretty large disparity between teams that gets lots of special teams time and those that get least
- over last 10 years the total number of pp opportunities per season have varied greatly (for those who point to Ovi/Stamkos' monster seasons)
- some teams just have deep offensive roster (e.g., leafs) where they run PP1A/1B that runs 50/50 split on PP time instead of a heavily stacked PP1 that plays 80% of PP time, just a strategic thing. Babcock did it, but looks like it will change under Keefe (hence my vote for Matthews winning 20/21)

Those aspects are typically out of players' hands.

The rocket gives a nice scalar list, but like i said it's a nice novelty number that folks get excited about, but when it comes to goal scoring talent in my opinion, while you obviously have to be an elite scorer to get there (like I mentioned like top10-15 scorer to be in that tier), i look to other signals to see who the best goal scorer is.

i'll be 100% consistent with it if someone else produces a body of work where they're playing top offensive line on their team, 18+ minutes a night and eclipsing matthews' 5v5 g/60 over a body of multiple seasons I think that player probably will be a better goal scorer. when talking about labelling a scorer by using production, that's just what makes most sense to me. not the rocket.

I disagree. To me it’s a clear objective test. You score the most goals in a season then you’re the best goal scorer. All the best goal scorers have won multiple Rockets. Until Matthews gets at least one he has no claim to being the best goal scorer. He’s close but not there yet until he gets a Rocket.
I also don’t buy that the Leafs have a deep offensive roster that puts Matthews at a disadvantage. If you have the best goal scorer then that player will get every opportunity to play on the PP. Like I said the rest is just excuses.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

There has never in the history of hockey been a great goal scorer who didn’t win multiple Rockets

i guess what i'm trying to say that despite not having won a rocket in his young career yet, my prediction is that matthews is currently the best goal scorer in the league, and as such i predict he will win rockets, starting with this season, the only thing that needs to come into line with all the other great scorers in the league is how much powerplay time the team he is on gets, which has frankly been dismal in his very short career to date, not to mention the injuries. imo it's only a matter of time before he establishes himself as what i'm already pretty sure is true.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

You made your bias clear, that’s about all

you've made yours clear by not actually bringing up any good arguments

 

[Dache]

i guess what i'm trying to say that despite not having won a rocket in his young career yet, my prediction is that matthews is currently the best goal scorer in the league, and as such i predict he will win rockets, starting with this season, the only thing that needs to come into line with all the other great scorers in the league is how much powerplay time the team he is on gets, which has frankly been dismal in his very short career to date, not to mention the injuries. imo it's only a matter of time before he establishes himself as what i'm already pretty sure is true.

I guess he should get better at drawing penalties? I’m not sure why other players are being penalized for capitalizing on opportunities. Sounds backwards to me

 

[Dache]

you've made yours clear by not actually bringing up any good arguments

I’ve brought up several arguments that you ignore cause they don’t fit your agenda

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I’ve brought up several arguments that you ignore cause they don’t fit your agenda

all you said is that the winner of the rocket is the best goal scorer. then jumped to bias. not sure why you're so offended about my substantiated opinion, take a deep breath

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I disagree. To me it’s a clear objective test. You score the most goals in a season then you’re the best goal scorer. All the best goal scorers have won multiple Rockets. Until Matthews gets at least one he has no claim to being the best goal scorer. He’s close but not there yet until he gets a Rocket.
I also don’t buy that the Leafs have a deep offensive roster that puts Matthews at a disadvantage. If you have the best goal scorer then that player will get every opportunity to play on the PP. Like I said the rest is just excuses.

yea, like i said it's just semantics. we'll see what happens in the next decade.

 

[Dache]

all you said is that the winner of the rocket is the best goal scorer. then jumped to bias. not sure why you're so offended about my substantiated opinion, take a deep breath

That’s not even close to all I said. I asked a question regarding your criteria which you ignored. Maybe go back and read again if you went through it all too fast