When hockey players peak, decline, and hit their prime

[joemon999]

I feel this article needs to be posted again from the CBC. I remember it was first posted here back in 2014, but it seems a lot of people have forgotten about it when evaluating players.

This article had a lot of research and stats put into it. It goes into detail when certain style players peak, go into their prime, and start to decline on average. It separates forwards into skill forwards and power forwards. There's also a segment on defensmen as well.

Pretty much, the article claims that skill forwards peak mid 20s while power forwards peak late 20s or early 30s. Defensemen also peak late 20s as well. The exception is elite players which have a wider window.

Take a read if you like, and let's use this thread to discuss the conclusions or any problems you may have with the conclusions made.

Here's the article: Hockey metrics: Measuring when and why NHL players peak

Click to read more...

 

[Rebels57]

Players are peaking earlier seemingly every year. These numbers are very fluid.

 

[bring back the jets]

What kind of peak do you guys think a player like McDavid will have? I've wondered this before. Obviously he is very skilled and will stay good a while but his biggest tool is his speed which is something that typically peaks at a younger age, like 22-24 or so.

 

[Dano85]

I feel this article needs to be posted again from the CBC. I remember it was first posted here back in 2014, but it seems a lot of people have forgotten about it when evaluating players.

This article had a lot of research and stats put into it. It goes into detail when certain style players peak, go into their prime, and start to decline on average. It separates forwards into skill forwards and power forwards. There's also a segment on defensmen as well.

Pretty much, the article claims that skill forwards peak mid 20s while power forwards peak late 20s or early 30s. Defensemen also peak late 20s as well. The exception is elite players which have a wider window.

Take a read if you like, and let's use this thread to discuss the conclusions or any problems you may have with the conclusions made.

Here's the article: Hockey metrics: Measuring when and why NHL players peak

Is this post a post in response to the fact that no one agrees with you that Lee and Kucherov are on the same level....I bet it is...

 

[joemon999]

Is this post a post in response to the fact that no one agrees with you that Lee and Kucherov are on the same level....I bet it is...

Hey you brought it up. Not me.

 

[joemon999]

What kind of peak do you guys think a player like McDavid will have? I've wondered this before. Obviously he is very skilled and will stay good a while but his biggest tool is his speed which is something that typically peaks at a younger age, like 22-24 or so.

I personally think 26 or 27 like the other elite forwards have.

 

[lomiller1]

People who have run the numbers on advanced stats have typically found that for 5v5 play players of all positions peak at ~25 and then start to gradually decline. There are outliers on both ends and the decline from 25-28 is very small. Special teams play isn’t quite as clear with the possibility of a slower decline or even a longer plateau into the late 20’s
Here is a recent one
https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/

the above also references some older work like these:
https://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/1/21/1261318/nhl-points-per-game-peak-age
https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/21/4452220/power-play-points-aging-curve-knuble



My own suspicion is that the mantra that Defencemen take longer to develop, and goaltenders take the longest is not a function of how long it takes these positions to develop but how long it takes to identify development. Eg Because goaltending is all over the map it takes a number of years at each level to identify what a player really is so often they don’t become NHL regular until they are 24/25 and you need a few years at the NHL level to get a large enough sample to know what they really are. In many cases this can mean they are already past their peak and into a very gradual decline before they are widely recognised. A similar but less extreme thing happens with defenceman because the defensive end of the ice is difficult to evaluate.

 

[Ciao]

I feel this article needs to be posted again from the CBC. I remember it was first posted here back in 2014, but it seems a lot of people have forgotten about it when evaluating players.

This article had a lot of research and stats put into it. It goes into detail when certain style players peak, go into their prime, and start to decline on average. It separates forwards into skill forwards and power forwards. There's also a segment on defensmen as well.

Pretty much, the article claims that skill forwards peak mid 20s while power forwards peak late 20s or early 30s. Defensemen also peak late 20s as well. The exception is elite players which have a wider window.

Take a read if you like, and let's use this thread to discuss the conclusions or any problems you may have with the conclusions made.

Here's the article: Hockey metrics: Measuring when and why NHL players peak

I read the CBC article and a UBC press release on this study (Most NHL players peak by age 29: Sauder study | UBC Sauder School of Business, Vancouver, Canada), as well as the study abstract. I didn't read the study itself because it is behind a pay-wall.

I couldn't find any reference to your assertions, bolded above, that the article "separates forwards into skill forwards and power forwards" and that "skill forwards peak mid 20s while power forwards peak late 20s or early 30s." Perhaps you could quote the passages you have in mind to draw my attention to them.

I did read in the article that James Brander, the co-author interviewed, said that "forwards who do not develop into consistent scorers by age 23 or 24 in most cases never will." Earlier in the article he supported this point by saying that "the key to winning is having good, young players", and the article notes that "forwards:

• "Improve more quickly than they decline and typically begin 'a significant decline in their early 30s.'
• "Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 32 years old.
• "25 is their most common age, with 24-27 very similar."

In a May 15, 2014, UBC press release, Brander also said "[w]hile confirming conventional wisdom that players peak in their late 20s, the study proves it is wishful thinking for managers to expect a player in his mid-20s to continue improving significantly. The vast majority of players are at 90 per cent of their best by age 24, although there are a few late bloomers" [emphasis added].

The importance of early development for elite players, like Kucherov, is emphasized in the CBC article, which says "'Elite players improve faster initially, continue to improve for slightly longer and experience slower age-related decline,' according to Brander. 'They do not experience a major drop-off in performance until their late 30s.'"

While the CBC article supports the expected result that forwards (without differentiation between skill forwards and power forwards) typically reach their scoring peak between 24-27 years of age, the study also reveals that players performed close to their peak levels for a number of years before and after their optimal peak: 24 to 32 for forwards and 24 to 34 for defencemen.

Based on this study, it would be unexpected that a forward who, as Brander says, did not NOT develop into a consistent scorer by age 23 0r 24, and had not been performing within 90 percent of his peak performance by age 24, would ever become a consistent scorer.

Of course, as all sources amply note, there are exceptions to the rule, and it is entirely possible that Anders Lee is one of those exceptions.

However, to rely on this article in support of your proposition that "skill forwards peak mid 20s while power forwards peak late 20s or early 30s" is not tenable.

As a trial lawyer with 32 years of experience, I can definitively say that contrary to your friends' advice, you should not "of became a lawyer instead of going into finance" because your support of these assertions would leave you in tatters on the courtroom floor.

 

[joemon999]

I read the CBC article and a UBC press release on this study (Most NHL players peak by age 29: Sauder study | UBC Sauder School of Business, Vancouver, Canada), as well as the study abstract. I didn't read the study itself because it is behind a pay-wall.

I couldn't find any reference to your assertions, bolded above, that the article "separates forwards into skill forwards and power forwards" and that "skill forwards peak mid 20s while power forwards peak late 20s or early 30s." Perhaps you could quote the passages you have in mind to draw my attention to them.

I did read in the article that James Brander, the co-author interviewed, said that "forwards who do not develop into consistent scorers by age 23 or 24 in most cases never will." Earlier in the article he supported this point by saying that "the key to winning is having good, young players", and the article notes that "forwards:

• "Improve more quickly than they decline and typically begin 'a significant decline in their early 30s.'
• "Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 32 years old.
• "25 is their most common age, with 24-27 very similar."

In a May 15, 2014, UBC press release, Brander also said "[w]hile confirming conventional wisdom that players peak in their late 20s, the study proves it is wishful thinking for managers to expect a player in his mid-20s to continue improving significantly. The vast majority of players are at 90 per cent of their best by age 24, although there are a few late bloomers" [emphasis added].

The importance of early development for elite players, like Kucherov, is emphasized in the CBC article, which says "'Elite players improve faster initially, continue to improve for slightly longer and experience slower age-related decline,' according to Brander. 'They do not experience a major drop-off in performance until their late 30s.'"

While the CBC article supports the expected result that forwards (without differentiation between skill forwards and power forwards) typically reach their scoring peak between 24-27 years of age, the study also reveals that players performed close to their peak levels for a number of years before and after their optimal peak: 24 to 32 for forwards and 24 to 34 for defencemen.

Based on this study, it would be unexpected that a forward who, as Brander says, did not NOT develop into a consistent scorer by age 23 0r 24, and had not been performing within 90 percent of his peak performance by age 24, would ever become a consistent scorer.

Of course, as all sources amply note, there are exceptions to the rule, and it is entirely possible that Anders Lee is one of those exceptions.

However, to rely on this article in support of your proposition that "skill forwards peak mid 20s while power forwards peak late 20s or early 30s" is not tenable.

As a trial lawyer with 32 years of experience, I can definitively say that contrary to your friends' advice, you should not "of became a lawyer instead of going into finance" because your support of these assertions would leave you in tatters on the courtroom floor.

""Skills related to reaction time and to speed and explosive power of muscle movement peak in the early to mid-20s," but "endurance and skill at complex physical tasks peak later — in the late 20s or early 30s.""

It's the first paragraph under "Why players peak when they do"

 

[Mr Positive]

this is the reason I'd steer clear of Hoffman as a trade target. He seemed to peak a bit late in life, so it feels like he should be 24 just based on how long I've heard of him as an impact player, but he's already 28.

 

[Ciao]

""Skills related to reaction time and to speed and explosive power of muscle movement peak in the early to mid-20s," but "endurance and skill at complex physical tasks peak later — in the late 20s or early 30s.""

It's the first paragraph under "Why players peak when they do"

Here's what the paragraph says:

"What Brander and his team found for hockey corresponds to research on how physiology and intelligence relate to developing basic sports skills. "Skills related to reaction time and to speed and explosive power of muscle movement peak in the early to mid-20s," but "endurance and skill at complex physical tasks peak later — in the late 20s or early 30s."

It doesn't refer at all to skill forwards and power forwards; it doesn't "separate forwards into skill forwards and power forwards"; and it doesn't "claim that skill forwards peak mid 20s while power forwards peak late 20s or early 30s."

Those assertions are in your imagination. The article doesn't say those things at all. You just made them up.

 

[joemon999]

Here's what the paragraph says:

"What Brander and his team found for hockey corresponds to research on how physiology and intelligence relate to developing basic sports skills. "Skills related to reaction time and to speed and explosive power of muscle movement peak in the early to mid-20s," but "endurance and skill at complex physical tasks peak later — in the late 20s or early 30s."

It doesn't refer at all to skill forwards and power forwards; it doesn't "separate forwards into skill forwards and power forwards"; and it doesn't "claim that skill forwards peak mid 20s while power forwards peak late 20s or early 30s."

Those assertions are in your imagination. The article doesn't say those things at all. You just made them up.

..... if you cannot tell the difference between the two types of different players they are describing in that paragraph, then I think you need to refresh yourself on the different type of playstyles in the league and what they are called. (You know, like a sniper, playmaker, power forward, etc)

 

[Sojourn]

..... if you cannot tell the difference between the two types of different players they are describing in that paragraph, then I think you need to refresh yourself on the different type of playstyles in the league and what they are called. (You know, like a sniper, playmaker, power forward, etc)

You’re proving his point here. You’re injecting your own bias into the article.

 

[joemon999]

You’re proving his point here. You’re injecting your own bias into the article.

Then what are they infering here? Why do they even mention this part? What possible reason would this put this piece of information in here if it was not to differentiate two different types of forward playing styles in the league? I don't know how you can possibly interpret it any other way.

 

[Sojourn]

Then what are they infering here? Why do they even mention this part? What possible reason would this put this piece of information in here if it was not to differentiate two different types of forward playing styles in the league? I don't know how you can possibly interpret it any other way.

Hockey players rely on both categories to be successful. They aren’t inferring anything other than what they are saying.

 

[Ciao]

Then what are they infering here? Why do they even mention this part? What possible reason would this put this piece of information in here if it was not to differentiate two different types of forward playing styles in the league? I don't know how you can possibly interpret it any other way.

You're putting words in their mouths.

If that's your own opinion and it's what you want to say, that's fine. I think you're wrong, but you're entitled to your own opinion.

However, it's not what the authors of the study say: in fact, they say the opposite.

The article you rely on actually states the opposite of your own opinion.

 

[lomiller1]

..... if you cannot tell the difference between the two types of different players they are describing in that paragraph, then I think you need to refresh yourself on the different type of playstyles in the league and what they are called. (You know, like a sniper, playmaker, power forward, etc)

If the characteristics of the modern day power forward (speed and power) peak at ~25 how can it be suggesting power forwards peak later?

 

[Ciao]

..... if you cannot tell the difference between the two types of different players they are describing in that paragraph, then I think you need to refresh yourself on the different type of playstyles in the league and what they are called. (You know, like a sniper, playmaker, power forward, etc)

Incidentally, what is your understanding of the paragraph that immediately precedes the paragraph you have so widely quoted? The two passages together read as follows:

"Brander also notes that 'forwards who do not develop into consistent scorers by age 23 or 24 in most cases never will.'
"Why players peak when they do

"What Brander and his team found for hockey corresponds to research on how physiology and intelligence relate to developing basic sports skills. 'Skills related to reaction time and to speed and explosive power of muscle movement peak in the early to mid-20s,' but 'endurance and skill at complex physical tasks peak later — in the late 20s or early 30s.'"

You seem to completely ignore a direct statement from the study's author to the effect that a player who has not developed into a consistent scorer by age 23 0r 24 is unlikely to do so, and incorrectly states as a fact an inference the study's authors have not drawn.

Your assertions are not their conclusions, but yours.

 

[Sojourn]

To simplify this for you, they are giving you the conclusion of where they see forwards peaking, and telling you why.

This whole attempt to split forwards into different categories, based on their role? That’s you. That’s all you. You’re trying to read into something that isn’t there.

Edit: To go at it from both sides, since we both know this is about the Anders Lee proposal, there will always be players who don’t quite fall into the norm. It is entirely possible that everything could come together for Lee and he could turn into a player who puts up consecutive 40/40 kind of numbers over multiple seasons after turning 27. The odds are just against it.

But what you’re trying to say the article is agreeing with? That’s just you.

 

[lomiller1]

Then what are they infering here? Why do they even mention this part? What possible reason would this put this piece of information in here if it was not to differentiate two different types of forward playing styles in the league? I don't know how you can possibly interpret it any other way.

They are not implying anything, just stating the abilities which peak sooner vs later.
You seem to focusing on the word "physical" in the phase "complex physical tasks" and misinterpreting it as "physical play" which isn’t what it’s saying at all. Everything on the ice is a physical task, in this statement they are separating the more complex ones from the simple ones like skating and shooting. A better characterization of what they are saying would be "hockey IQ peaks later" or "ability to learn and a system peaks later".

 

[joemon999]

Incidentally, what is your understanding of the paragraph that immediately precedes the paragraph you have so widely quoted? The two passages together read as follows:

"Brander also notes that 'forwards who do not develop into consistent scorers by age 23 or 24 in most cases never will.'
"Why players peak when they do

"What Brander and his team found for hockey corresponds to research on how physiology and intelligence relate to developing basic sports skills. 'Skills related to reaction time and to speed and explosive power of muscle movement peak in the early to mid-20s,' but 'endurance and skill at complex physical tasks peak later — in the late 20s or early 30s.'"

You seem to completely ignore a direct statement from the study's author to the effect that a player who has not developed into a consistent scorer by age 23 0r 24 is unlikely to do so, and incorrectly states as a fact an inference the study's authors have not drawn.

Your assertions are not their conclusions, but yours.

There's a huge difference between the definition "consistent" and "peak", if that is what you are referring to. There is clearly a difference in playstyles and when they peak that is referred to and even pointed in the statement that you quoted.

 

[joemon999]

They are not implying anything, just stating the abilities which peak sooner vs later.
You seem to focusing on the word "physical" in the phase "complex physical tasks" and misinterpreting it as "physical play" which isn’t what it’s saying at all. Everything on the ice is a physical task, in this statement they are separating the more complex ones from the simple ones like skating and shooting. A better characterization of what they are saying would be "hockey IQ peaks later" or "ability to learn and a system peaks later".

Battling someone in front of the net on a constant basis is as physical of a task there can be in hockey..

The author clearly inferred a difference in peakage of playstyles when he listed the different age groups with the playstyles. If they found no correlation between the two, it wouldn't of been included in the article. It's really that simple.

 

[CartographerNo611]

Well Pittsburgh fans think a guy concussed 16 times is going to be a 100 point player well into his 40s and its impossible for him to decline in his early 30s or this year even...

 

[Sojourn]

Battling someone in front of the net on a constant basis is as physical of a task there can be in hockey..

The author clearly inferred a difference in peakage of playstyles when he listed the different age groups with the playstyles. If they found no correlation between the two, it wouldn't of been included in the article. It's really that simple.

Again, this is all you.

 

[joemon999]

Again, this is all you.

The author put that quote in there, not me.

Email CBC and take it up with them.