HF Habs: When Does Our Postseason Fate Sort Itself Out? Rebuild Thread

[Leon Lucius Black]

Basically the next 7 games before the week off are make or break.

If they get 10 or so points in those games and make up some ground they might have some life left, plus they'd likely gain some of the injured players after that week.

 

[CHfan1]

Right now both Florida and Philly are on pace for 96 points. For Montreal to get in they probably have to be in the 97 point range.

That means they need 54 points in their last 39 games. That’s a 113.5 point pace over a full season.

Only one team in the league right now is on that pace - Washington.

That means Montreal probably has to be at least the 3rd best team (or so) in the league over the last half of the season. I don’t think this team has the talent for that.

 

[Chili]

One year ago today...

NHL Scores for January 7, 2019 | Hockey-Reference.com

Habs had 49 points in 43 games (vs 43 points same number of games this season), so they made a decent push with 47 points in the last 39 games.

47 points over the same number of games this season would only give them 90. Doubt that would get them in.

Last year only two teams who were not in playoff spots at this time, went on to make the playoffs (Carolina and ST Louis, both 7 points out with 1 game in hand on the teams they would surpass, Buffalo and Minnesota).

Habs are a longshot at this point unless they really go on a run.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

10% chance according to hockey reference.

 

[Tyson]

The teams ahead of them are better and playing well. Habs are injury depleted, no way they catch up. Bottom 3 by years end

 

[Habs Halifax]

The teams ahead of them are better and playing well. Habs are injury depleted, no way they catch up. Bottom 3 by years end

Bottom 3 by years end? Pretty sure the other bottom 5 or bottom 10 teams have something to say about that .

I actually hope you are right but not going to bet on that. I see us with a 8-12 range pick with an outside chance at 5-10 range. However, it all depends on if the injuries are done with or if they are prolonged and we get more

 

[Omar]

Right now both Florida and Philly are on pace for 96 points. For Montreal to get in they probably have to be in the 97 point range.

That means they need 54 points in their last 39 games. That’s a 113.5 point pace over a full season.

Only one team in the league right now is on that pace - Washington.

That means Montreal probably has to be at least the 3rd best team (or so) in the league over the last half of the season. I don’t think this team has the talent for that.

That requires 27 wins out of 39 games

 

[Habs Halifax]

10% chance according to hockey reference.

Seems right to me. The hole we have dug is deep and getting deeper

 

[dukeofjive]

Probably end up picking at the draft between 5 to 8, so no high end pick just another wasted year of trying to make the playoffs.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Seems right to me. The hole we have dug is deep and getting deeper

Yeah, it seems very unlikely the Habs make the playoffs this year - they just have never really played that well.

 

[Habs Halifax]

That requires 27 wins out of 39 games

We had a 11-5-3 record before Drouin and Byron went down with an injury. With a healthy roster, what is the realistic best record we have with lets say 35 games to finish the season? Honestly I just hope we continue to slide. Trying to make the playoffs like last year is dumb. This season has spoken to us... Let the growing pains continue and test the kids while we rest vets.

Hope Molson and Bergevin are not that stubborn. It's time to stop chasing the straight and fold your hand. We don't need to be desperate to make trades and sell but we should be experimenting and testing our youth in key roles way more than Julien is willing to do at the moment. This is opportunity

 

[Habs Halifax]

Probably end up picking at the draft between 5 to 8, so no high end pick just another wasted year of trying to make the playoffs.

What makes you think we get a better pick in a different situation? How many players you liquidating so we are as bad as the Wings? It's not a wasted year... it's another growing pain year and I'm pretty sure this season has helped guys like Poehling, Suzuki, KK, Fleury and even Primeau with the two NHL games he has played.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I mean, we're 6 points away from the nearest playoff spot. That's pretty f***ing far out for this time of year.

 

[Rapala]

When does Molson get a brain and raid Hockey Canada for someone like Scott Salmond for President of Hockey Operations. Enough is enough.

 

[BLONG7]

Probably end up picking at the draft between 5 to 8, so no high end pick just another wasted year of trying to make the playoffs.

Rinse and repeat.

No planning for 8 years now. Throw some crap at the wall, and hey, who knows, some may stick.......hardly a way to build an NHL team. Can fans really be happy, just because the GM can do franco interviews?? Really? I mean how did it get to this...? Does anyone ever ask Money Mol$on??

 

[Habs Halifax]

Yeah, it seems very unlikely the Habs make the playoffs this year - they just have never really played that well.

Even if we were healthy, I still see a fringe wild card team potential. What has happened this season with the injuries is a good thing IMO. Never really played that well? I disagree with that. After the 1st 25 games, we firmly in the top 5-10 range in the standings.

The issue with me is even if we made the playoffs, we can win a 1 or 2 game battle but forget about winning the 7 game war. Our centers are not mature enough yet and we have too many soft wingers. We can't sustain pressure on the offensive end and this puts a lot of pressure on our D. Our mix of Skill / Skating / Size / Physical Strength is flawed.

 

[dukeofjive]

What makes you think we get a better pick in a different situation? How many players you liquidating so we are as bad as the Wings? It's not a wasted year... it's another growing pain year and I'm pretty sure this season has helped guys like Poehling, Suzuki, KK, Fleury and even Primeau with the two NHL games he has played.

Team has been a bubble team for too long, it needs a true rebuild, not retooling with trading picks for 3rd or 4th liners.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Even if we were healthy, I still see a fringe wild card team potential. What has happened this season with the injuries is a good thing IMO. Never really played that well? I disagree with that. After the 1st 25 games, we firmly in the top 5-10 range in the standings.

The issue with me is even if we made the playoffs, we can win a 1 or 2 game battle but forget about winning the 7 game war. Our centers are not mature enough yet and we have too many soft wingers. We can't sustain pressure on the offensive end and this puts a lot of pressure on our D. Our mix of Skill / Skating / Size / Physical Strength is flawed.

Their record was good but they had to come back to win a lot of games. I don't know. I'm not saying they were very bad, and definitely losing Drouin hurt them quite a lot offensively, but I never got the sense that the team was fully right this year. The bottom pairing always seemed off, The PK was weak. They were scoring a bunch early but it never seemed that sustainable.

I agree falling out of the playoffs could be a good thing, especially if they strike gold with Lafreniere...

 

[Habs Halifax]

Team has been a bubble team for too long, it needs a true rebuild, not retooling with trading picks for 3rd or 4th liners.

The team has struggled for a while now but it's been decades since we had both quality and quantity in our prospect pool like we have today. We are rebuilding and it started in the 17 draft. Name me a team that has dismantled assets like Price, Weber, Petry, Gallagher, Tatar in a short span cause they wanted to rebuild? The rebuild is happening and we have traded Patch and Shaw for futures. There will be more to come as we monitor how our youth can force their way into key roles.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Their record was good but they had to come back to win a lot of games. I don't know. I'm not saying they were very bad, and definitely losing Drouin hurt them quite a lot offensively, but I never got the sense that the team was fully right this year. The bottom pairing always seemed off, The PK was weak. They were scoring a bunch early but it never seemed that sustainable.

I agree falling out of the playoffs could be a good thing, especially if they strike gold with Lafreniere...

Nah... the potential is the same as last year. When healthy, fringe wild card team and possibly 3rd in the Atlantic if we have a perfect season where nothing goes wrong. The only thing we were really bad at in the 1st 25 games when were were healthy was our PK!

I take offense as a Habs fan by being so pessimistic about our potential and strategy. Our strategy of rolling 4 lines and a high tempo of play has been proven to be effective to some degree for us when we have a healthy roster. Why are you deflating this?

I remember the "career year" comments this summer and we won't be able to repeat it. Well would you look at that... Tatar, Gallagher, Weber, Danault, Domi, Petry, Armia are at it again and so was Drouin before he got hurt. We have flaws yes. But no need to exaggerate them and deflate our tires to be completely flat.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

We had a 11-5-3 record before Drouin and Byron went down with an injury. With a healthy roster, what is the realistic best record we have with lets say 35 games to finish the season? Honestly I just hope we continue to slide. Trying to make the playoffs like last year is dumb. This season has spoken to us... Let the growing pains continue and test the kids while we rest vets.

Hope Molson and Bergevin are not that stubborn. It's time to stop chasing the straight and fold your hand. We don't need to be desperate to make trades and sell but we should be experimenting and testing our youth in key roles way more than Julien is willing to do at the moment. This is opportunity

I completely agree.

There will be 32 games left after the bye week.

Most of the injured are expected back after that, if we're 10 points or more back after that week off, well, forget it. It's not happening.

Currently, 6 points out of last WC and 7 pts out of 15th. MB has to make a decision one way or another, but he's probably waiting to see where we are after that bye week.

If Habs can stay within 5 pts, they're not selling unless they're definitively out by the TD.

MB won't make a decision. It'll have to be a forced decision by falling so far behind as to make it clear to him that they're out.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I completely agree.

There will be 32 games left after the bye week.

Most of the injured are expected back after that, if we're 10 points or more back after that week off, well, forget it. It's not happening.

Currently, 6 points out of last WC and 7 pts out of 15th. MB has to make a decision one way or another, but he's probably waiting to see where we are after that bye week.

If Habs can stay within 5 pts, they're not selling unless they're definitively out by the TD.

MB won't make a decision. It'll have to be a forced decision by falling so far behind as to make it clear to him that they're out.

Honestly, I doubt Bergevin does too much either way. He won't trade valuable futures for short term gains and he won't be desperate to trade Petry or Tatar. Maybe he trades Byron and Kovalchuk at the deadline.

I just hope that the trends of us slipping continue so we get the best lottery shot. Some want us to sell a lot of vets so we slip for sure but not so sure it works that way. I rather be patient with our valuable vets we can trade 1/1 as time moves forward. Kind of how we managed to get the returns we wanted with Galchenyuk, Patch, and Shaw.

Kovalchuk, Byron, Tatar, Petry are pieces we can move. Some sooner than others. I'm very curious to see what Bergevin does

 

[BLONG7]

We have to hope the lottery balls fall in our favour. Asking MB to plan a direction is a moot point, he doesn't know how. He is clinging to the Blues doing what they did, last year. He thinks you can hope, for some good luck, and the stars will align.

Brutal and bizarre the Montreal Canadiens have let this happen. Let the protests start folks, the fans and the city should be embarassed, if money Mol$on isn't.

 

[mariolemieux66]

I mean, we're 6 points away from the nearest playoff spot. That's pretty ****ing far out for this time of year.

We need to catch Carolina, who is rumored to have Justin William's back at some point and they also have extra 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks. So help is on the way. We also have to catch Florida who's healthy, playing very well as of late and has several prospects they could trade like Bogrstrom, Hepponiemi, Noel and Tippett for a playoffs push. Those 2 teams also have a game in hand. If they win tonight and we lose, we will be 9 points back from being in the playoffs.

 

[Tyson]

Bottom 3 by years end? Pretty sure the other bottom 5 or bottom 10 teams have something to say about that .

I actually hope you are right but not going to bet on that. I see us with a 8-12 range pick with an outside chance at 5-10 range. However, it all depends on if the injuries are done with or if they are prolonged and we get more

I think the team is that bad. Price has played 3 outstanding games in a row and it's not enough, he will eventually lose that fire.