The Athletic Wheeler’s 2020 NHL prospect pool rankings: No. 16 Buffalo Sabres

[Jim Bob]

Wheeler's 2020 NHL prospect pool rankings: No. 16 Buffalo...

This is an interesting moment in the course of the series because the Sabres represent a shift into a new class of prospect pool. There are a few clear divisions throughout the ranking, where one cluster of teams breaks apart from another. For me, it broke down into five tiers of prospect pools. They are: 1-5, 6-16, 17-22, 23-26 and 27-31.

You’ll notice that one of those groups (this new one we’re beginning today) is not like the others. There are four tiers there with just handful of teams and another that runs 11 organizations deep.

So while it may look like the Sabres are in the bottom half of the league as a prospect pool, I don’t view it that way. They’re much closer to a few teams in the top 10 than they are to any of the teams in the bottom 10.

Wheeler really like Cozens and he has UPL & Portillo as the Sabres' #2 & #3 prospects.

Between Portillo and Luukkonen, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Sabres have their future starter.

Click to read more...

 

[sabrebuild]

Seems like a reasonable take on our prospect pool.

Cozens should be a good nhler sooner than later.

Goalies, one of Ukko or Portillo could turn out in the next few years.

Asplund will likely turn into a bottom 6 guy who can slide around the lineup.

And that's about it. Here's hoping some of these defenders hit their ceilings. Not much at fwd to hope for.

 

[joshjull]

Seems like a reasonable take on our prospect pool.

Cozens should be a good nhler sooner than later.

Goalies, one of Ukko or Portillo could turn out in the next few years.

Asplund will likely turn into a bottom 6 guy who can slide around the lineup.

And that's about it. Here's hoping some of these defenders hit their ceilings. Not much at fwd to hope for.

Don’t sleep on R2. He’s taken a nice step this season. He probably needs Rochester to adjust to NA ice. That should give us a better idea what we have.

His description of Pekar was pretty accurate but it’s not that disappointing to me. As odd as it sounds I’m not that surprised he can lose his focus when he’s asked to be the top guy offensively. It essentially takes away his pest game since he can’t afford to get into that in that situation. Something that usually keeps him engaged. I’m very curious to see how he focuses his game when he turns pro. His best chance to make the bigs is finding the right blend of pest and skill. I don’t see him making it on skill alone.

 

[Chainshot]

I'm curious at Murray at 15 and Weissbach at 7. Nice to see an external perspective.

 

[sabrebuild]

Don’t sleep on R2. He’s taken a nice step this season. He probably needs Rochester to adjust to NA ice. That should give us a better idea what we have.

His description of Pekar was pretty accurate but it’s not that disappointing to me. As odd as it sounds I’m not that surprised he can lose his focus when he’s asked to be the top guy offensively. It essentially takes away his pest game since he can’t afford to get into that in that situation. Something that usually keeps him engaged. I’m very curious to see how he focuses his game when he turns pro. His best chance to make the bigs is finding the right blend of pest and skill. I don’t see him making it on skill alone.

I'm hopeful for R2, but haven't watched him enough to have an opinion.

Pekar seems like a long shot to me. Agreed, he isn't making it on skill, and given the team makeup, I think we should be hopeful he can be a Kaleta type. If his skill transfers at his ceiling, I could see him being a player as effective as Foligno.

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

 

[Zip15]

Disappointing to see the write-ups on the higher-floor, low-ceiling guys we've spent years picking in that 31-40 range.

 

[FormerSabresFan]

They really need to go all-in on forwards this next draft and swing for some high-skill, home run type picks.

The saving grace is that forwards generally tend to develop faster than d-men but we're still probably too late to the party...last years draft would have been the right time to load up on forwards.

Hopefully we can swing a couple prospect trades to re-balance the prospect pool but I don't see defensive d-men prospects having a lot of trade value.

Stupid Botterill...seems like our GMs always end up going for the safe picks but even those tend to bust on us...

Even the seemingly high end picks like Nylander and Mittelstadt seems to die in our system.

Really says something about our lack of development program...sigh....

 

[SundherDome]

I would imagine that some dmen prospects are going to get moved out.

 

[Chainshot]

The point that they shuffled around late in the last draft, turning four potential swings at for the proverbial fences into only two swings for the fences has to be made again, or that he dealt a 6th for a net loss (and used that pick in the shuffling). Building up some sort of stable of high-skill guys with holes in their game requires picking high-skill guys.

Also, the dubiousness of selecting a pack of low-skill, big defensemen in his 2018 draft instead of taking any high-risk skill forwards has to be again pointed out.

 

[Icicle]

They really need to go all-in on forwards this next draft and swing for some high-skill, home run type picks.

The saving grace is that forwards generally tend to develop faster than d-men but we're still probably too late to the party...last years draft would have been the right time to load up on forwards.

Hopefully we can swing a couple prospect trades to re-balance the prospect pool but I don't see defensive d-men prospects having a lot of trade value.

Stupid Botterill...seems like our GMs always end up going for the safe picks but even those tend to bust on us...

Even the seemingly high end picks like Nylander and Mittelstadt seems to die in our system.

Really says something about our lack of development program...sigh....

Mittelstadt was not a safe pick. Go look at Botterill's reaction on the draft floor up to picking him.

 

[sabrebuild]

The point that they shuffled around late in the last draft, turning four potential swings at for the proverbial fences into only two swings for the fences has to be made again, or that he dealt a 6th for a net loss (and used that pick in the shuffling). Building up some sort of stable of high-skill guys with holes in their game requires picking high-skill guys.

Also, the dubiousness of selecting a pack of low-skill, big defensemen in his 2018 draft instead of taking any high-risk skill forwards has to be again pointed out.

Not to start anything in this thread, but is this what successful restocking of the pipeline looks like after 3 drafts and poor nhl play?

 

[Chainshot]

Not to start anything in this thread, but is this what successful restocking of the pipeline looks like after 3 drafts and poor nhl play?

Considering the number of picks they've had in their hands, this is highly disappointing. The 2018 draft in particular, with so much need for skill in the system and an already growing movement toward puck skill on defense, they went moved hard on relatively unskilled defensemen, most of whom were big. Their draft trends have been hard to get behind.

 

[sabrebuild]

Considering the number of picks they've had in their hands, this is highly disappointing. The 2018 draft in particular, with so much need for skill in the system and an already growing movement toward puck skill on defense, they went moved hard on relatively unskilled defensemen, most of whom were big. Their draft trends have been hard to get behind.

It's just such average results. To sell the idea that this guy was all about patience and drafting....

Let's just say the results, both drafting wise and development of prospects speaks for itself. Basically if the player isn't in their early twenties and developed in Europe, we create zilch.

 

[sabremike]

The point that they shuffled around late in the last draft, turning four potential swings at for the proverbial fences into only two swings for the fences has to be made again, or that he dealt a 6th for a net loss (and used that pick in the shuffling). Building up some sort of stable of high-skill guys with holes in their game requires picking high-skill guys.

Also, the dubiousness of selecting a pack of low-skill, big defensemen in his 2018 draft instead of taking any high-risk skill forwards has to be again pointed out.

But to be fair: He decided to mix things up this past year by passing on several high end skilled forwards that it was a miracle they were still available to take a not so big defenseman who has shown less offensive ability than John Scott or Ron Hextall.

 

[Zip15]

But to be fair: He decided to mix things up this past year by passing on several high end skilled forwards that it was a miracle they were still available to take a not so big defenseman who has shown less offensive ability than John Scott or Ron Hextall.

But boy can he skate. He and Montour will make the prettiest-skating-but-rarely-scoring defense pair in Buffalo history.

 

[flashsabre]

Is Rousek listed? He is a kid that looks very interesting. Might be another VO late round gem.

overall, this is exactly what I have stated in the past. Their lack of player identification has killed them for the better part of a decade.

 

[Bendium]

Not in response to any particular post, but rather the tone in general. I think we could use to take a look at what the reasonable expectations of success should be for hitting on draft picks. I really like the following article:

From the draft to the NHL: A round-by-round look at the league's skaters and goalies - TheHockeyNews

This article breaks down the distribution of players on NHL teams by draft position. They are made of:

1st = 40.5%
2nd = 16.6%
Und = 12.7%
3rd = 8.4%
4th = 6.8%
5th = 6.5%
6th = 5.6%
7th = 2.6%

This is why you cant rebuild a team core in a couple years through the draft in the NHL like you can in the NFL. You can reasonably expect ONE long term core player per year. Now another one or two will make it to play some games in the NHL as support players but not have long careers before being back in the AHL or out of hockey. There are a ton of discussions that can come from this, but I will throw out a couple of my thoughts:

1. I would play it safe with my 1st round picks taking players you can be more sure of rather than boom bust prospects hoping you hit on greatness.
2. Given the low chances of even "safe" picks making it past the first round, I make boom/bust picks with all the rest. Hitting on even one every other year will do more for your core players than multiple players making it to be filler material.
3. The 2-4 round are all good for goalies. Keep taking one every 2-3 years.
4. Given the percentages I am not going to freak out when 3-7 rnd picks are used to bring in guaranteed NHL roster players.

I would analyze the current situation but have to run at the moment. Maybe later.

 

[toomuchsauce]

Buffalo Sabres fan to-do list:
1) read article about how two (2! f***ing two!) of their 3 best prospects are goalies, their fourth best prospect projects as a 4th liner/PK specialist, they drafted Mattias Samuelsson, etc.
2) check what time the game starts tonight
3) get your best buds together
4) have them witness your last will and testament
5) walk directly into the ocean

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Wheeler's 2020 NHL prospect pool rankings: No. 16 Buffalo...



Wheeler really like Cozens and he has UPL & Portillo as the Sabres' #2 & #3 prospects.

Mostly right and depressing. It seems hard to believe after missing playoffs 8 years we are in middle of prospect pool. It boggles the mind.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

Buffalo Sabres fan to-do list:
1) read article about how two (2! ****ing two!) of their 3 best prospects are goalies, their fourth best prospect projects as a 4th liner/PK specialist, they drafted Mattias Samuelsson, etc.
2) check what time the game starts tonight
3) get your best buds together
4) have them witness your last will and testament
5) walk directly into the ocean

6) wait for what could be one of if not the best Sabres team in the near future