Why can't both be true? I'm sure he often played 30 minutes per game when the Oilers were behind. And he probably also often played 20 minutes per game during Oilers blowouts - there are definitely tons of first hand reports that talk about the Oilers cutting down ice time for their stars during blowouts. And what does it average to?
I'm sure both are true to an extent. It will also vary a lot depending on which year we look at.
I know I have seen plenty of references to his ice time in the early 80s being 27+ minutes a game and seen Sather's quoted philosophy of how to handle Gretzky is to play him as much as possible.
Once they were a dynasty level club I am sure they were coasting a lot more.
My main issue is the certainty with which people quote an estimate that is based on a formula with a known subjective factor in it which is in turn based on a calibration to the late 90s/early 2000s player usage.
I am sure we can all agree that shift lengths and ice time distribution changed quite a bit from the mid/late 80s on.
Other factors like the introduction of TV timeouts would also have a small impact for example.
The fudge factor alone means that you are picking which players you believe were the "first liners" or "second liners" and then applying the adjustment to make it fit what you expect.
By definition that implies that all teams use the same setup and all players in that role are used the same and that simply isn't true.
In the early 80s Gretzky played a ton.
Are the estimates in the ballpark? Sure I think we can reasonably say they are.. I just don't think they are the be all and end all. And I can easily see them being off by a couple of minutes.
I do agree with you about one thing though - it's pretty deplorable that nobody has the exact calculation used in the estimates.
Right. A lot of people base a good chunk of their player evaluations and other work on ice time. It is incredible that these numbers are being taken at face value.
If it is so easy then someone should be able to recreate the results fairly quickly.
My feeling is that no one wants to do that because then the flaws will be more visible.