ot92s
Registered User
- Nov 5, 2011
- 741
- 3
I'm thinking historical individual player ice time data.
without it all the number crunching seems kinda lacking to me.
without it all the number crunching seems kinda lacking to me.
also gretz was around 30min per game when he was putting up the 200 point seasons. that's around 8min over the leaders in today's nhl. Figure around an 80 game season that's an extra 640 minutes on the ice. With every 30 minutes equaling a game for him that like an extra 21 games a year.
Based on the estimates we have, he was nowhere near 30 minutes in an average game.
tell me more about these estimates.
It usually helps if you spell at least one of my names right, if not both.paging ianfyfe....whats the method?
I'm sure there's a more accurate way to do estimates... Been a long day and my brain power is sapped, so I'm not going to attempt to get more advanced for now.
However you could, as a starting point, compare a players GF/GA to his teams GF/GA using the teams total TOI (GF/GA per minute)
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EX: (chosen because he came up first when I went to check plus/minus stats)
Patrice Bergeron on ice for 90GF 51GA
He played 81 games
Boston 260 GF 199 GA
Boston on ice 5002 minutes in 2011/2012
Therefore every GF is worth 19.238 minutes of playing time
every GA is worth 25.136 minutes of playing time
Using this simplistic method, and averaging the GF estimate and the GA estimate, Bergeron can be estimated to have played 18 minutes and 36 seconds per game.
In reality, he played 18 minutes and 34 seconds per game.
Undoubtedly it was lucky that the estimated and actual were this close in this example.
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EX #2: Chara (because hes on the same team, and this way I don't need to look up new team stats )
115 GF 85 GA in 79GP
Comes out to an estimated TOI of 27 minutes 32 seconds per game.
He actually played 25 minutes and 0 seconds per game.
This one was further off, but still semi-reasonable for a rudimentary estimate.
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Keep in mind that this simple formula does not take into account the higher rates of GF/GA on the PP/PK - and probably several other factors that I am not considering. Part of the reason for the discrepancy in Chara's numbers could be related to the higher PK/PP time he had last year.
Seems to be somewhat accurate in the two example I tried though.
Based on the estimates we have, he was nowhere near 30 minutes in an average game.
tell me more about these estimates.
as long as you have both goals on-ice-for and on-ice-against, you can estimate ice time and poster like Iain Fyffe and overpass have done so. One of them could probably tell you more details.
paging ianfyfe....whats the method?
The "Dead Sea Scrolls" of hockey data would be access to the internal individual team stats that each team generates. These are based on game plans going in and strategic objectives.
Would change how hockey metrics are viewed.
the naked photos of Marc Crawford that Dan Cloutier seems to own
The "Dead Sea Scrolls" of hockey data would be access to the internal individual team stats that each team generates. These are based on game plans going in and strategic objectives.
Would change how hockey metrics are viewed.
I'd be very surprised if there is any legitimate statistical significance to this method of determining ice time.
also gretz was around 30min per game when he was putting up the 200 point seasons. that's around 8min over the leaders in today's nhl. Figure around an 80 game season that's an extra 640 minutes on the ice. With every 30 minutes equaling a game for him that like an extra 21 games a year.
Based on the estimates we have, he was nowhere near 30 minutes in an average game.
I don't know whether teams or coaches keep that stuff or not. If they do it would be great if they made it available to the public. Of course not the data used for the latest season, probably not even the last few seasons. But would it hurt them to publish the relevant data that they used in the 1950s, 60s, 70s?
Crazily enough the icetime estimate spreadsheet relied upon by some of the people here and on the history forum has no background information.
If I recall we finally found the person who published the sheet (based on Iain's old publication) and he said that he was working on a much improved version of it and didn't want to release the old stuff.
So....