What to Project When You're Expecting: The Winnipeg Jets

[Grind]

Was going to wait till Monday to post this but what the hey.

We tallied up the jets top 20 prospects and did our best to accurately project just how many of them should be expected to make the jets.

http://www.theprojectionproject.com/blog/2015/07/10/what-to-project-when-youre-expecting-winnipeg-jets-pipeline/

Full explanation of the methodology on the article.

Posting from my phone so I'll keep it short:

Most likely get six skaters: 2 top liners, 1 first pair dman, 1 second line forward, 2 third liners

Best case scenario: 12 skaters.

Article includes which players we assume make it and a lot more!

Click to read more...

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

That possible forwards graph looks pretty nice.

 

[Grind]

That possible forwards graph looks pretty nice.

The whole thing looks pretty favorable. Haven't done the other teams yet so it likely needs some adjusting to determine accuracy/weight within the league, but the jets appear to have a very nice prospect pool.

I feel good about the safe projections as it puts us in a realistic production rate, as mentioned in the article the blackhawks achieved the same success from the 03-06 draft and that depth has carries them for quite a while

 

[sully1410]

So where is all the numbers?

But it just shows you how underrated Morrissey is. According to this graph...he is a sure fire number one DMan in all iterations.

 

[Grind]

So where is all the numbers?

But it just shows you how underrated Morrissey is. According to this graph...he is a sure fire number one DMan in all iterations.

Data will be posted in a CSV for download. Wanted to keep it consumable for the punlic..

 

[sully1410]

Data will be posted in a CSV for download. Wanted to keep it consumable for the punlic..

Cool. Can I make a request? Can you do Darnell Nurse. I know that guy is going bust! I just know it!

 

[Grind]

Cool. Can I make a request? Can you do Darnell Nurse. I know that guy is going bust! I just know it!

Not sure how you mean? Purpose of this article is totalling all members of a pipeline.

For nurse just go to the site and hit project then type in nurses name.

 

[StronGeer]

Cool. Can I make a request? Can you do Darnell Nurse. I know that guy is going bust! I just know it!

37% chance of success.

 

[Whileee]

Was going to wait till Monday to post this but what the hey.

We tallied up the jets top 20 prospects and did our best to accurately project just how many of them should be expected to make the jets.

http://www.theprojectionproject.com/blog/2015/07/10/what-to-project-when-youre-expecting-winnipeg-jets-pipeline/

Full explanation of the methodology on the article.

Posting from my phone so I'll keep it short:

Most likely get six skaters: 2 top liners, 1 first pair dman, 1 second line forward, 2 third liners

Best case scenario: 12 skaters.

Article includes which players we assume make it and a lot more!

Now, add in Scheifele, Lowry and Trouba....

So, with 5 drafts under their belt, the "safe" scenario has the Jets producing 9 NHLers from the "draft and develop" approach, including 2-3 top-line forwards (Ehlers, Connor and maybe Scheifele) and two top pairing defensemen (Trouba and Morrissey), along with 4 other top-9 forwards (add in Lowry). This doesn't include any goalies.

The "possible" scenario has them producing 9 top-9 NHL forwards and 3 NHL defensemen (and perhaps a goalie or two).

Not bad....

 

[Mud Turtle]

Unbelievable work. Great job. It will only keep getting more interesting from here.

 

[Grind]

Now, add in Scheifele, Lowry and Trouba....

So, with 5 drafts under their belt, the "safe" scenario has the Jets producing 9 NHLers from the "draft and develop" approach, including 2-3 top-line forwards (Ehlers, Connor and maybe Scheifele) and two top pairing defensemen (Trouba and Morrissey), along with 4 other top-9 forwards (add in Lowry). This doesn't include any goalies.

The "possible" scenario has them producing 9 top-9 NHL forwards and 3 NHL defensemen (and perhaps a goalie or two).

Not bad....

As mentioned in the article the safe projection including scheifele trouba and Lowry would put them on pace with the hawks "dynasty" /lofty, but not unattainable.

Hopefully were as good in other areas of roster management

 

[sully1410]

37% chance of success.

Hahahahahahahahahahaha I knew it. Eat it Edmonton fans!


This may or may not have been because I got into a pissing match with an oiler fan on the who has the best prospects thread on the polls board.

 

[Romang67]

Hahahahahahahahahahaha I knew it. Eat it Edmonton fans!


This may or may not have been because I got into a pissing match with an oiler fan on the who has the best prospects thread on the polls board.

They managed to rile me up again by saying that the difference between Brossoit and Hellebuyck is small...

I've been easily riled up this summer. Personally, I blame Silver and his stupid Eurotrip.

And maybe the fact that I'm leaving Sweden again, this time possibly for good.

But mostly Silver. Screw that guy.

 

[sully1410]

They managed to rile me up again by saying that the difference between Brossoit and Hellebuyck is small...

I've been easily riled up this summer. Personally, I blame Silver and his stupid Eurotrip.

And maybe the fact that I'm leaving Sweden again, this time possibly for good.

But mostly Silver. Screw that guy.

I know right! I was super on edge this summer too and while I would say I didn't know why...I wild be lying. It's Silvers fault. Such an ass.

I got it bad when they said that Nurse was better then all of our prospects. I'm like seriously? That guy is terrible.

 

[truck]

These are awesome.

 

[KingBogo]

Good job. Very interesting read. Certainly helps confirm just how deep our prospect pool is.

 

[Grind]

Not to rain on the parade but 37% is still pretty good.... Not Morrissey good but our ratings heavily favor offensive dmen


But yes, hard to believe theres manybteama that can hold a match to our pipeline but we won't no till we've done everyone else.

Were going to start with the other Canadian teams and go from there.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Good read thanks Grind. Sorry if I missed it elsewhere, but what defines an "elite" player?

 

[sully1410]

Not to rain on the parade but 37% is still pretty good.... Not Morrissey good but our ratings heavily favor offensive dmen


But yes, hard to believe theres manybteama that can hold a match to our pipeline but we won't no till we've done everyone else.

Were going to start with the other Canadian teams and go from there.

I'm having a bit of a hard time making sense of this. According to the pie chart Nurse has a 37% chance of being successful, and Morrissey has 34%...but the bar graph you showed us said he had a 100% chance of being a top pairing defenseman? And it seems like Nurse has a better shot at being a success than Morrissey.

I would just like some clarification on how you applied all this.

 

[Grind]

I'm having a bit of a hard time making sense of this. According to the pie chart Nurse has a 37% chance of being successful, and Morrissey has 34%...but the bar graph you showed us said he had a 100% chance of being a top pairing defenseman? And it seems like Nurse has a better shot at being a success than Morrissey.

I would just like some clarification on how you applied all this.

If you include dy-dy +2 Morrissey has a 46% chance of success.

But.. On the whole, the entire jets prospect team has a 100% chance of graduating a top line/top pair player AFTER removing connor and ehlers.

So of that identified 100% we have to choose someone to be that success, since Morrissey has the highest liklihood of success at that level we choose him.


Does that make sense?


I feel you should read the original al methodology to get a handle k. What the charts are showing

 

[sully1410]

If you include dy-dy +2 Morrissey has a 46% chance of success.

But.. On the whole, the entire jets prospect team has a 100% chance of graduating a top line/top pair player AFTER removing connor and ehlers.

So of that identified 100% we have to choose someone to be that success, since Morrissey has the highest liklihood of success at that level we choose him.


Does that make sense?


I feel you should read the original al methodology to get a handle k. What the charts are showing

Thanks that makes sense.