What % of 5v5 goals come from 'Scoring Chances'?

[Filthy Dangles]

Scoring chances quoted because there is no official definition. But say you use Corsica's definition, what % of goals at Even Strength come from Shots that were graded as Scoring Chances?

League wide? What about at Team Level? Can teams with better shot quality and finish 'impact' this?

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[eperry]

20.44% of shots on goal labelled as scoring chances result in goals.

In addition, 52.83% of all goals since 2007 are scoring chances according to my definition. 55.00% of 5v5 goals.

 

[BigRangy]

From that article, are "scoring chances" the fenwicks from the "high danger" area, or from the "high danger" plus "medium danger", or are they something else?

If a scoring chance is a fenwick from the high danger area, then 34142/64646 goals, or 52.8% of goals are from scoring chances.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

20.44% of shots on goal labelled as scoring chances result in goals.

In addition, 52.83% of all goals since 2007 are scoring chances according to my definition. 55.00% of 5v5 goals.

Wait. How are 5v5 goals a greater percentage of scoring chances vs All goals? Obviously most of those other goals are PP goals. PP should afford you to create more high quality shots and chances, no?

 

[Henkka]

20.44% of shots on goal labelled as scoring chances result in goals.

I have tracked my own scoring chances for a while and that 20% is pretty near of it.

Don't know how the TV-companies do it. Have noticed some differencies between different companies vs. my results.

 

[connor35]

I think the OP asked a different (and frankly more interesting) question.

He asked What % of goals come from scoring chances.

Not what % of "scoring chances" result in goals.

They're opposite conditional probabilities.

For example Pr(You're male given you're an NHLer) = 100%

Pr(you're a NHLer given you're male) = 600 / 3.5 billion = 0.0000002

I think the OP was asking what fraction of goals come off scoring chances -- the converse being what fraction of all goals that are scored are actually the result of shots that wouldn't have qualified as 'scoring chances' -- which i guys would be a proxy for 'bad goals'.

 

[Henkka]

I think the OP asked a different (and frankly more interesting) question.

He asked What % of goals come from scoring chances.

Not what % of "scoring chances" result in goals.

They're opposite conditional probabilities.

For example Pr(You're male given you're an NHLer) = 100%

Pr(you're a NHLer given you're male) = 600 / 3.5 billion = 0.0000002

I think the OP was asking what fraction of goals come off scoring chances -- the converse being what fraction of all goals that are scored are actually the result of shots that wouldn't have qualified as 'scoring chances' -- which i guys would be a proxy for 'bad goals'.

What to exclude out?

- Good shot that bounces in from somebody's skate?
- Low-danger-zone shots?

I have some data about goal types, more from goaltender's view.

My mutual feeling is goals that are pure luck = non-scoring chances, are very rare. Because in many situations, lucky bounces are just smart shooting. On eye-test you can determine these things better.