Tennis: What non-Big 3 Man will Win the first Major?

[Say Hey Kid]

What non-Big 3 Man will Win the first Major? I can't use the word "next", because if one of the Big three wins the Aussie, then the question doesn't really make sense.

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[discostu]

I can't really decide, but, in terms of which major is most likely to be one by someone outsider the big 3, the US Open is the one I would expect.

Australian Open lets the big 3 come in fresh, and Djokovic is going to be the favourite going in for the next few years.

Nadal remains king of clay for the next few years. If he's ever too worn down by the spring hard court season, Thiem will have an shot here, but I think Rafa will do everything he needs to do to remain healthy for this tournament.

By the point of the grass season, the players should be getting worn down, but, the size of the stage in Wimbledon, along with being such a unique surface,it favours the veterans.

US Open next year though seems like it's got a shot for a breakthrough. It's at a pretty strenuous part of the season, especially being an Olympic year.

If I had to guess a name, Medvedev seems the most obvious, even if I know I'm probably letting recency bias impact my decision. But, I think someone like Shapovalov could bring his game back up by this point next year and be a threat.

 

[Tuggy]

Djokovic to win AO 2020 and Thiem to win RG 2020.

 

[kihei]

Medvedev for me. His progress, unlike his compatriots, has been nice and steady, and he has the nerves and guts for it. Though I agree with Tuggy that Thiem would be a better pick in the French Open (but not this year especially as Rafa will be motivated to catch Roger, and you just know that he will be).

 

[Say Hey Kid]

The non-European countries are not doing a great job of producing Grand Slam champions. The last one to win a major was 10 years ago when the great Juan Martin del Potro won the 2009 US Open.

Nishikori is 8th in the live rankings, but he's 29.6 and (except for the US Open) has never been past the QF in any major. At the 2019 US Open he lost in the third round to Australia's 31st ranked Alex de Minaur who at age 20.5 may have a great future.

In the United States the U.S. Open Men’s final ratings jumped 33% for Rafael Nadal’s 5-set win and were the best number since 2015, but where are the young American men? #30 Taylor Fritz is only 21.8.

 

[MsMeow]

Thiem. He was knocking on the door a few months ago so he knows what he has to do. It will be interesting to see who does it, and when.

 

[JianYang]

The problem is that this answer changes all the time, because they other guys just haven't been able to build on strong stretches.

The popular answer today is medvedev after the US open, but let's see if he can build on it. Otherwise, he would be no different than the other answers in the past.

 

[Florbalista]

Medvedev. It's not as much a recency bias as it is the fact he's the only player born in the nineties who seems to be getting better and better. I'm surprised so few people seem to realize what a breakthrough it was to see a Gen-Z player in a major final, taking it to five sets. Especially from a seemingly hopeless situation.

Add to that he knows how to beat Djokovič, he's approaching the typical tennis peak age and you know he'll get there, unless he blows it through complacency (or unless things go south due to injuries).

I would like to see de Minaur getting a bit stronger and more consistent. He has the drive and the talent.

Stefanos has all the tools, but his head fails him. Same with Zverev.

I could see Kyrgios winning a slam, but I can't see him playing 7 good matches in a row. Thiem at the French Open? Only if Nadal repeats this year's so-so form during the dirt season.