What Lehner offer sheet would you not match?

[internetdotcom]

If you were Bryan Murray, what type of offer sheet (term and $$$) would Robin Lehner have to sign before you would not match it?

Edit : And let's pretend for the sake of this thread that our owner was NOT a penny-pinching miser.

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[Marty Straka]

Anything north of 3mil per would be overpayment imo.

 

[Alfie#11]

If you were Bryan Murray, what type of offer sheet (term and $$$) would Robin Lehner have to sign before you would not match it?

Edit : And let's pretend for the sake of this thread that our owner was NOT a penny-pinching miser.

Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 compensation is a 1st and 3rd round pick.

That's my level. The salary band below that, the compensation is a 2nd round pick. I would deal Lehner for a first but not a 2nd.

 

[internetdotcom]

Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 compensation is a 1st and 3rd round pick.

That's my level. The salary band below that, the compensation is a 2nd round pick. I would deal Lehner for a first but not a 2nd.

Really? After all the 'goalie graveyard' days, we have a long term guy that is looking like he'll be a #1 and you let him go for just one 1st? Mind you, it maybe depends on the team he signs it with, if its a low tier team, that 2015 pick could be nice, but I don't see anything but the very top picks even in that deep draft netting a player that has as high or higher upside as Lehner, and they would be a few years behind him in development. I'm surprised by this answer.

 

[Margaret Trudeau*]

Lehner doesn't even look too promising as of yet. Looks like a less talented Emery. Absolutely no offer sheets should be matched.

 

[Xspyrit]

Anything north of 3mil per would be overpayment imo.

Ok but you would let him go if someone offered 3.5?

Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 compensation is a 1st and 3rd round pick.

That's my level. The salary band below that, the compensation is a 2nd round pick. I would deal Lehner for a first but not a 2nd.

You really would? I know I wouldn't. It's not easy to find a goalie with that potential. The Habs didn't trade Carey Price when he was stuggling (and was a for a while), and they were right to be patient. I think Lehner will be a top-10 goalie in a few years. Remember this :

Lehner become just the fourth teenaged goalie in AHL history to win the Calder Cup; following in the footsteps of Price (2007), Patrick Roy (1985) and Gordie Bell (1943).

I think I would even match up to 6.0 (and would hate to pay that much) but that will not happen so... Lehner is an untouchable for me

 

[Qward]

Here is the compensation list for anyone that wants to know.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...ree-Agencyrfa-compensation-table-offer-sheets

$1,110,249 or below - No Compensation
Over $1,110,249 to $1,682,194 - 3rd round pick
Over $1,682,194 to $3,364,391 - 2nd round pick
Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 - 1st round pick, 3rd
Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd
Over $6,728,781 To $8,410,976 - Two 1st Round Picks, 2nd, 3rd
Over $8,410,976 - Four 1st Round Picks

 

[Benjamin]

6.7mil. Lehner is way more valuable than picks and we got a ton of cap space.

 

[Human Megaphone]

Guys like Miller, Hillier and Bryz are available for free. If someone offered a decent first rounder, it would be hard not to take it.

 

[Benjamin]

Guys like Miller, Hillier and Bryz are available for free. If someone offered a decent first rounder, it would be hard not to take it.

So we can hope to draft another Lehner and then spend another 5 years developing him?

Are people seriously giving up on Lehner because of 3 bad weeks?

 

[Mr Invidious]

Really?

I'm quite alarmed by how adamant people are about getting rid of Lehner for a 1st. Clear cut example of over-rating the value of picks. What is the likelihood that a 1st round pick turns into a goalie with Lehner's potential? Even if we did get a player/goalie with the same or more potential to be successful, it'd then take another 3+ seasons until they're NHL ready.

Pay Lehner. He's being underrated here, and I'm not sure why. I guess a lot of people expected him to put up a .950 SV% this season? Give him some time (and a defense).

Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd.

Anything in the above range is where I'd consider letting him go but that'd have more to do with our budget than anything.

 

[Sun God Nika]

this guy can be our number 1 for the next 20 years, and you guys would give it up for a 1st and a third?

 

[Mr Invidious]

Hell, we're talking about a 22 year old goalie who has a career .918 SV% in the NHL playing behind one of the worst defenses in the league.

But yeah, let's toss him for a 1st.

 

[internetdotcom]

Really?

I'm quite alarmed by how adamant people are about getting rid of Lehner for a 1st. Clear cut example of over-rating the value of picks. What is the likelihood that a 1st round pick turns into a goalie with Lehner's potential? Even if we did get a player/goalie with the same or more potential to be successful, it'd then take another 3+ seasons until they're NHL ready.

Pay Lehner. He's being underrated here, and I'm not sure why. I guess a lot of people expected him to put up a .950 SV% this season? Give him some time (and a defense).

Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd.

Anything in the above range is where I'd consider letting him go but that'd have more to do with our budget than anything.

Remember, the premise of my OP is that our owner isn't a penny-pinching cheapskate. Unless you mean that you wouldn't like what it would do to the balancing of our salary structure, of course.

 

[Mr Invidious]

Remember, the premise of my OP is that our owner isn't a penny-pinching cheapskate. Unless you mean that you wouldn't like what it would do to the balancing of our salary structure, of course.

Skimmed over the "Melnyk doesn't exist part". Regardless anything more than $5 million for Lehner would still be a bit risky depending on the term. I have all the faith in the world in Robin Lehner and I believe he'll be a top 10 goalie in the NHL at the very least but nothing is a certainty.

If we had an owner who could spend to the cap, I'd be comfortable keeping Lehner for $5-$6 million short term to see if he can become what we believe he can become.

 

[Busboy]

It's tough to make any sort of judgement without knowing the term involved.

The Sens should sign him before he can receive offer sheets to be safe. The money issue isn't a big priority since no team will significantly overpay for a young guy. The risk is if he gets an offer for term that fits nowhere near our teams salary structure.

 

[StefanW]

I think a distinction has to be made between Lehner's overall value across the league and his value to our organization. We have already invested a great deal of time and effort into developing him, so it makes no sense to let him walk. From a league wide perspective, goalies rarely command even a first on their own (Schneider was one of the few that I remember) which makes a first look good.

I don't think anyone offers Lehner so much that they would risk a 1st and a 3rd to get him, especially after an up and down season last year. I think we match any reasonable offer, and any offer coming in would almost certainly be under 3.3 MM.

I expect him to re-sign at somewhere between 2 and 2.5 per on a bridge deal, but if someone goes up to 2.5 or even 2.7 we have to match. Especially considering the optics, with Alfie leaving, lots of focus on finances of team, etc.

 

[BankStreetParade]

No one is even going to try to sign him for anything over $4 million and the Sens won't have any problem matching anything up to $4 million for him. Moot point.

 

[Larionov]

No one is even going to try to sign him for anything over $4 million and the Sens won't have any problem matching anything up to $4 million for him. Moot point.

QFT. It's a buyer's market for goalies this summer, with plenty of talent on the market. I find it hard to believe that anyone is going to break the bank for a relatively unproven goalie in Lehner when there are so many other options out there. Getting Lehner re-signed is not going be a struggle...

 

[Busboy]

I think a distinction has to be made between Lehner's overall value across the league and his value to our organization. We have already invested a great deal of time and effort into developing him, so it makes no sense to let him walk. From a league wide perspective, goalies rarely command even a first on their own (Schneider was one of the few that I remember) which makes a first look good.

I don't think anyone offers Lehner so much that they would risk a 1st and a 3rd to get him, especially after an up and down season last year. I think we match any reasonable offer, and any offer coming in would almost certainly be under 3.3 MM.

I expect him to re-sign at somewhere between 2 and 2.5 per on a bridge deal, but if someone goes up to 2.5 or even 2.7 we have to match. Especially considering the optics, with Alfie leaving, lots of focus on finances of team, etc.

I disagree a bit. I think many teams would acquire Lehner at the cost of a 1st and 3rd. San Jose, Chicago, Pitsburgh all come to mind.

What I don't see is those teams willing to risk giving up those assets and overpaying him by signing him to a contract that would force them to give up those assets.

 

[StefanW]

I disagree a bit. I think many teams would acquire Lehner at the cost of a 1st and 3rd. San Jose, Chicago, Pitsburgh all come to mind.

What I don't see is those teams willing to risk giving up those assets and overpaying him by signing him to a contract that would force them to give up those assets.

Maybe. 1st and a 3rd territory starts at $3,364,391 and Lehner is still a backup, which means teams like SJ and Pitts that are nudging close to the cap will be unlikely to offer that much IMO. Having said that, SJ has been very public about trying to get younger so there is that. Still seems like a pretty outrageous number for someone who may not even be a starter next season.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

It's not really a legitimate fear.

First, there are plenty of goaltenders on the market.

Second, teams tend to only offer sheet realistic amounts.

Ryan O'Reilly was offered 2 years, the first at 3.5, the second at 6.5. I can't speak for last year, as I wasn't following the league that closely, but on paper, it seems like those are pretty fair values for what O'Reilly has brought to the table. 5 million average cap hit.

Shea Weber could have been offered a gold boat, and it still would have been under payment.

Nobody is going to go out and lose picks, as well as valuable cap space to offer sheet Lehner well above what he is worth to the point that Ottawa wouldn't match. The few teams who could do it as a strategy that need a goalie like NYI and BUF would be risking losing a very valuable 2015 1st round draft pick.

If a team offer sheets him, it'll likely be 3.3 million or less. At which point, Ottawa can easily match. Remember, if Ottawa does move Spezza, and fails to retain Hemsky/Michalek due to not wanting to pay market value for them, they'll need to hit the cap floor. That, and Anderson's contract which is also in the 3 million range expires next year, so slightly overpaying for Lehner won't be a big deal if they intend to move on from Anderson.

I'd be a lot more worried about a guy like Zibanejad or Ceci getting an offer sheet. By that I mean, I wouldn't be worried at all, since it almost never happens, but I think they'd be a lot more likely to receive an offer than Lehner.

 

[tony d]

I wouldn't touch anything over 4 million per for Lehner.

 

[Busboy]

Maybe. 1st and a 3rd territory starts at $3,364,391 and Lehner is still a backup, which means teams like SJ and Pitts that are nudging close to the cap will be unlikely to offer that much IMO. Having said that, SJ has been very public about trying to get younger so there is that. Still seems like a pretty outrageous number for someone who may not even be a starter next season.

That's what I was saying. If the price to acquire the rights to Lehner was a 1st and and 3rd there would be teams willing to pull the trigger. If they need to give up a 1st and 3rd while overpaying then they don't do it.

 

[King Karlsson]

All I have to say is thank god HF doesn't run our franchise