What is wrong with the Hurricanes?

[Carolinas Identity*]

We have by far the league's best PK (7 goals against, 4 SH goals scored - 91.3%)

We have the league's 8th best PP (21.7%)

We allow the 5th fewest shots against in the League (27.5 - for added context, were this 0.2 lower, we'd be 3rd)

And are one of the best possession and well disciplined teams in the league

Yet, all that said, if you count OT//SO losses as losses, this team is 13-18 and not making the playoffs.

I know it'd help if we scored an extra goal here or there, and I know the goaltending is a bit suspect, though Ward has been great since November after an lol October.

Something about all these numbers does not add up to me, this team should be substantially better than they are. imo anyway.

Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[Machinehead]

goal·tend·ing
ˈɡōlˌtendiNG/
noun
1.
SOCCER ; HOCKEY
the action of stopping the ball or puck from entering the goal.

 

[scan15*]

Inexperience?

Toronto is in a similar situation. Dominating teams and finding ways to lose.

 

[GoldiFox]

Add $10-15 million in top-6 talent to the Canes and you have a competitor. The Canes are a full $6 million+ below the next lowest spender. You get what you pay for.

 

[Machinehead]

Carolina fans keep telling me Ward has been great since November. I took a look.

Since 11/1/16:

Even strength save percentage - .920

At even strength that actually really sucks. You should be around .940

Penalty kill save percentage - .966

That is absolutely stark raving mad. One of the strangest stats I've ever seen, as a matter of fact. Most goalies are around .850 shorthanded.

Long story short, Ward is putting up good numbers and looks good because he's on some ****ing bananas once-in-a-lifetime penalty kill binge, but at even strength (which is most of the game) he still sucks.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Add $10-15 million in top-6 talent to the Canes and you have a competitor. The Canes are a full $6 million+ below the next lowest spender. You get what you pay for.

The funny thing is though, that what we are paying for is putting up pretty solid numbers. Maybe it just lacks a bit of finish//polish//whatever you want to call it.

 

[Machinehead]

I don't know how they're getting there, but they're still one of the last teams I would want to face in the playoffs, even as they are.

 

[Scrub*]

Canes lost to Philly twice, Sens twice and Bruins once, all three teams are just ahead of them in the standings, also looks like they have trouble on the road this year; 4-8-6 vs 9-3-1 at home.

 

[Cassano]

They aren't that far off. I see them surging the second half of the season.

 

[Super Cake]

The Hurricanes are the argument against using advanced stats.

 

[Roboturner913]

Look at the fancy stats and the win-loss record is an abberation. They will eventually win a lot of games if they keep playing this way. They've had the most road-heavy schedule of any team in the league to this point, and they have the most home-heavy schedule in the second half of the season.

They still won't make the playoffs because the Metro is so stacked (if they were in the Atlantic they'd be 2 points back of a playoff spot with a game in hand) but they are probably the hardest team to play against in the league right now because literally every single little play is contested. They don't give you any space to work with, and they don't give you power play opportunities. It's a very Soviet, team-oriented style of play.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Inexperience?

Toronto is in a similar situation. Dominating teams and finding ways to lose.

Funny that you mention that. Both Carolina and Toronto are on pace to finish bottom-10 all-time (since 87-88) in terms of winning percentage when taking a lead into the 3rd period.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=leadingtrailing&reportType=season&seasonFrom=19871988&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=winPctgAfterLead2p

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

The Hurricanes are the argument against using advanced stats.

I went to a Carolina @ Calgary game where the starter was pulled and the back up played lights out, we got the game to one goal, pulled the back up in the dying minutes, allowed an EN goal, but then scored like 10 seconds later and lost by one.

I literally got to see Mike Murphy lose a game where he stopped every shot and did not allow a goal because the game winner was the EN goal.

The Hurricanes are cursed or something lol

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Funny that you mention that. Both Carolina and Toronto are on pace to finish bottom-10 all-time (since 87-88) in terms of winning percentage when taking a lead into the 3rd period.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=leadingtrailing&reportType=season&seasonFrom=19871988&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=winPctgAfterLead2p

what is the record for most blown 3 goal leads?

we prolly already broke it tbh

So from this we can deduce that the canes aren't taking enough penalties, which leads them to being scored on more often.

ur logic is sound....


errr.... wait a minute...

how did i quote you before you posted??..

 

[Festinator]

Carolina fans keep telling me Ward has been great since November. I took a look.

Since 11/1/16:

Even strength save percentage - .920

At even strength that actually really sucks. You should be around .940

Penalty kill save percentage - .966

That is absolutely stark raving mad. One of the strangest stats I've ever seen, as a matter of fact. Most goalies are around .850 shorthanded.

Long story short, Ward is putting up good numbers and looks good because he's on some ****ing bananas once-in-a-lifetime penalty kill binge, but at even strength (which is most of the game) he still sucks.

So from this we can deduce that the canes aren't taking enough penalties, which leads them to being scored on more often.

 

[Territory]

Carolina, Edmonton, and Toronto keep losing games they shouldn't.

They are the top 3 teams that have lost games where they outshoot their opponents.

All 3 teams are gonna be good teams eventually.

 

[Machinehead]

So from this we can deduce that the canes aren't taking enough penalties, which leads them to being scored on more often.

Pretty much, that's why it's ****ing crazy

But it's not in any way sustainable, so no, they shouldn't take penalties.

 

[Festinator]

Pretty much, that's why it's ****ing crazy

But it's not in any way sustainable, so no, they shouldn't take penalties.

Funny how these stats work

 

[Regal]

Carolina fans keep telling me Ward has been great since November. I took a look.

Since 11/1/16:

Even strength save percentage - .920

At even strength that actually really sucks. You should be around .940

Penalty kill save percentage - .966

That is absolutely stark raving mad. One of the strangest stats I've ever seen, as a matter of fact. Most goalies are around .850 shorthanded.

Long story short, Ward is putting up good numbers and looks good because he's on some ****ing bananas once-in-a-lifetime penalty kill binge, but at even strength (which is most of the game) he still sucks.

I think you mean he should be around .930. Only 12 goalies have hit .940 at even strength since the full season lockout. .920 isn't good, but it's only a little below average

 

[hirawl]

Nothing wrong. They're young. Just like EDM and TOR.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Proving analytics are deeply flawed

Quality > quantity

 

[Machinehead]

Proving analytics are deeply flawed

Quality > quantity

Quantity > Quality

I'd venture (and I'm guesstimating here) that half the goals in one Stanley Cup Playoffs Tournament do not register as scoring chances.

I'm definitely going to track that this year.

 

[Bleedred]

I think you mean he should be around .930. Only 12 goalies have hit .940 at even strength since the full season lockout. .920 isn't good, but it's only a little below average

It's definitely around .930 at even strength, .940 is way too high. Even Price has only hit .940 (.942 to be exact) once in the last 3 years (not including this year) and I realize he only played 12 games last year. The year he hit .940 at even strength was his Vezina/Hart year two seasons ago.

Bishop was .932 last year, Schneider .933 last year, Holtby hasn't hit .930 at even strength since the 12-13 season. His only season's hitting .930 before that were his two seasons where he was used as a call up and wasn't a full time NHL player yet.

Out of everyone to get a Vezina vote last year, Schneider, Bishop, Crawford, Luongo, Elliott, were the only one's to exceed .930 at even strength. There were a couple other guys who were backups/1b guys like Greiss and Reimer, who very rarely hit .930 at even strength. Greiss never did this before last year and Reimer hadn't since his rookie year in 10-11. Neuvirth also hit .930 for the first time in his career, outside of when he played a whopping 5 games in the 08-09 season. Lundqvist was .934 at even strength. I think pretty much only the elite goalies are consistently putting up .930+ seasons. The average is probably around .925 or so, give or take a point or two at either end.

 

[Hackett]

It is odd to see special teams do so well, and not have it translate to a stronger win-loss record, however, they do seem to have company in that regard. The Oilers are 6th and 8th on the PP and PK respectively, yet their record is fairly comparable to Carolina as well.

On the flipside, you do not see any team in the bottom 10 of both categories and still doing well in the standings.

 

[Elvs]

Quantity > Quality

Panthers fans will disagree with you on that. As would Ducks fans if we'd rewind to the beginning of last season when they were historically bad at scoring goals.