What is responsible for the reduced Goal production ?

[Mess]

Goalies are getting better and that means goal scoring is declining league wide.

We're seeing this same pattern with the Leafs as Andersen in November is giving up less goals against than October. So Leafs skaters are facing the same opposition goaltending and teams tightening up.

6 -5 October games, become 5-4 November games, and 4-3 December games .. So this natural progression.

 

[zeke]

Gms 01-05: 5.20gf/gm, 3.80ga/gm (+1.40gdiff, .800pts%)
Gms 06-10: 3.40gf/gm, 3.40ga/gm (0.00gdiff, .600pts%)
Gms 11-15: 2.80gf/gm, 3.80ga/gm (-1.00gdiff, .200pts%)
Gms 16-20: 3.00gf/gm, 1.60ga/gm (+1.40gdiff, 1.000pts%)
Gms 21-25: 3.00gf/gm, 2.60ga/gm (+0.40gdiff, .500pts%)
Gms 26-29: 3.00gf/gm, 2.00ga/gm (+1.00gdiff, .750pts%)

Gms 01-10: 4.30gf/gm, 3.60ga/gm (+0.70gdiff, .700pts%)
Gms 11-20: 2.90gf/gm, 2.70ga/gm (+0.30gdiff, .600pts%)
Gms 21-29: 3.00gf/gm, 2.33ga/gm (+0.67gdiff, .611pts%)

Gms 01-15: 3.80gf/gm, 3.67ga/gm (+0.13gdiff, .533pts%)
Gms 16-29: 3.00gf/gm, 2.07ga/gm (+0.93gdiff, .750pts%)

Gms 01-29: 3.41gf/gm (4th), 2.89ga/gm (13th) (+0.52gdiff (5th), .638pts% (8th))

Looks like a blip to start the year, and we've settled in comfortably to a ~3 goals per game clip - i.e. still an elite offensive team.

Better news is how drastically our goals against have shrunk.

 

[JayDog17]

Overcoaching.
..emphasis on defensive play at the expense of offense
..stretch pass breakout after entire league has figured out how to counter it
..insisting on playing low skill players with high skill players on EVERY line
..playing vets over younger guys despite clear indications the lineup suffers

 

[Wafflewhipper]

The team is on pace for giving up 240 goals this year( allowed 242 last season).

The team is on pace for 286 goals for this year(scored 251 last season).

If it holds its a +46 differential in gf/ga. No matter the shots allowed some good things are happening.

I don't like the line combinations simply because it is effecting our possession numbers. So its effecting our shots against also.

All in all we are winning because of many positives and allowing above league average shots against is not effecting our points percentage.

This team is on pace for obtaining more wins in the 82 games season era than any other team. They are on pace for 50 wins!

 

[Mr Hockey]

Teams always start to tighten up there defense mid November, leafs included.

 

[Mr Hockey]

GF -- Goals For
GA -- Goals Against
TG/G -- Total Goals (i.e., Goals For plus Goals Against) Per Game
Goals
EVGF
▼ -- Even Strength Goals
Goalie Stats
EVGA -- Even Strength Goals Against
Shot Data
S -- Shots on Goal
S% -- Shooting Percentage
SA -- Shots Against
PDO -- PDO at Even Strength
Shooting % + Save %

							Shot	Shot	Shot	Shot
Rk		GF	GA	TG/G	EVGF	EVGA	S	S%	SA	PDO
1	Maple Leafs	101	85	6.41	80	60	901	11.0	985	102.1
2	Islanders	101	92	7.15	75	61	844	11.7	888	101.2
3	Knights	94	85	6.63	73	59	865	10.8	822	100.2
4	Blues	92	75	5.96	71	50	965	9.3	831	101.1
5	Kings	90	63	5.28	70	49	919	9.6	909	101.7
6	Rangers	91	81	6.37	70	57	850	10.6	876	100.6
7	Jackets	80	70	5.36	69	51	983	7.8	848	100.2
8	Lightning	101	69	6.30	67	47	873	11.5	869	102.5
9	Capitals	90	86	6.07	65	54	835	10.5	933	101.7
10	Stars	86	81	5.96	64	56	895	9.5	824	99.6
11	Blackhawks	84	79	5.82	64	52	959	8.8	934	100.5
12	Oilers	80	96	6.29	64	61	953	8.4	869	99.0
13	Jets	95	76	6.11	63	53	842	11.2	904	101.0
14	Flyers	79	85	5.86	61	51	896	8.8	886	101.4
15	Devils	84	81	6.11	60	56	818	10.0	917	101.6
16	Predators	92	80	6.14	58	52	831	10.7	912	100.4
17	Canadiens	81	90	5.90	58	62	997	8.0	896	99.0
18	Ducks	78	86	5.66	57	55	857	8.9	1053	101.2
19	Panthers	79	93	6.37	57	64	945	8.1	962	99.3
20	Flames	81	90	6.11	56	57	926	8.5	903	99.1
21	Wild	80	82	6.00	56	57	781	10.1	873	99.5
22	Hurricanes	72	80	5.85	55	55	930	7.5	766	98.7
23	Coyotes	73	104	5.90	55	76	906	7.9	970	98.4
24	Penguins	86	95	6.24	54	68	1024	8.4	916	96.7
25	Wings	79	91	6.07	54	65	864	8.9	908	99.0
26	Avalanche	81	86	6.42	54	58	767	10.4	821	99.1
27	Senators	74	89	6.27	54	60	790	9.2	785	98.8
28	Canucks	78	77	5.54	53	46	814	9.6	867	100.9
29	Bruins	69	73	5.68	51	51	778	8.7	754	99.4
30	Sharks	66	61	4.88	47	44	840	7.7	771	98.7
31	Sabres	60	96	5.57	46	63	875	6.9	871	97.5

[THEAD] [/THEAD]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[stickty111]

At least we’re respectable on that front now.

I’d like to see us become a top 5 team in Goals Against one day.

Well I mean Pittsburgh is pretty average defensively and they won the cup 2 straight years.
You can win in this league if you have elite offense, okay defence, and a good goalie.

 

[Zizzzzy]

I am pretty sure it has absolutely nothing to do with our lines changing every period.

 

[Morgs]

Gms 01-05: 5.20gf/gm, 3.80ga/gm (+1.40gdiff, .800pts%)
Gms 06-10: 3.40gf/gm, 3.40ga/gm (0.00gdiff, .600pts%)
Gms 11-15: 2.80gf/gm, 3.80ga/gm (-1.00gdiff, .200pts%)
Gms 16-20: 3.00gf/gm, 1.60ga/gm (+1.40gdiff, 1.000pts%)
Gms 21-25: 3.00gf/gm, 2.60ga/gm (+0.40gdiff, .500pts%)
Gms 26-29: 3.00gf/gm, 2.00ga/gm (+1.00gdiff, .750pts%)

Gms 01-10: 4.30gf/gm, 3.60ga/gm (+0.70gdiff, .700pts%)
Gms 11-20: 2.90gf/gm, 2.70ga/gm (+0.30gdiff, .600pts%)
Gms 21-29: 3.00gf/gm, 2.33ga/gm (+0.67gdiff, .611pts%)

Gms 01-15: 3.80gf/gm, 3.67ga/gm (+0.13gdiff, .533pts%)
Gms 16-29: 3.00gf/gm, 2.07ga/gm (+0.93gdiff, .750pts%)

Gms 01-29: 3.41gf/gm (4th), 2.89ga/gm (13th) (+0.52gdiff (5th), .638pts% (8th))

Looks like a blip to start the year, and we've settled in comfortably to a ~3 goals per game clip - i.e. still an elite offensive team.

Better news is how drastically our goals against have shrunk.

It is good new it's shrunk, but how sustainable is it? We know the reason for this is how Freddy is playing.

 

[zeke]

It is good new it's shrunk, but how sustainable is it? We know the reason for this is how Freddy is playing.

we also know the reason for the earlier bad numbers was how Freddy was playing, too.

 

[highslot]

imo babcock is cracking down on d. which means less creativity and more safe plays. if we play non trap and non aggressive forechecking teams, the leafs will score much more.

 

[Morgs]

we also know the reason for the earlier bad numbers was how Freddy was playing, too.

Well yes, but let's say Freddy plays like an average top-10 goalie for the rest of the season. We will be looking at a definite increase is GA/GM.

There's so much Babcock could do to help fix/minimize the issues they're having (which are mostly brutally obvious), but we all know what winning does.

 

[zeke]

Well yes, but let's say Freddy plays like an average top-10 goalie for the rest of the season. We will be looking at a definite increase is GA/GM.

.

overall that's just abou5 what freddy has been so far...so if he keeps it up there shouldn't be an increase.

 

[Leafling]

Was thinking of this recently too, especially after the last game. It can be frustrating to watch certain lines being fielded but i somewhat understand Babcocks idea here.
Playing Nylander on the fourth is in no way a demotion to me, he is honestly the best player on ice for us along with matthews, kadri and rielly on most nights. Think we are sitting much more comfortably in the rankings than expected and this allows babcock to try n see if both nylander and matthews can drive their own lines. From the looks of it this looks pretty bad for bozak. Babcock probably knows he can easily bring up scoring by playing nylander with Matthews and brown or marner with nazem, but he wants to get three really good lines in the long run with matthews, nazem and nylander driving these lines. Honestly i trust him to make it work.

 

[Ratboy]

Hyman.

 

[Mess]

Sophomore slumps of Leafs prized young players.

Marner and Nylander have only scored 1 ES goal each this year after 29 games and 7 goals combined.

Marner is on pace for 6 goals total and Nylander on pace for 14 for the season = 20 goals combined, when it was expected each would score at least 20 minimum.

When these 2 guys get going like their capable of, it would really help the Leafs, and the GF production would rise and Leafs not only relying on the vets to carry them offensively (outside of Matthews).

 

[Slyfox]

Less powerplays, leads to less goals which leads to players hooking, clutching and grabbing more during even strength. Refs have basically allowed the league to go back to the clutch and grab era.

 

[Joedoggy]

Players know when "coaches pets are being given way too much rope" Team means team as a unit, when a few are pampered and given 1st dibs constantly the bulk of standup players notice, players will still play its their jobs but its not the same nor will lead to a cup.
Babcock says he will do what he wants .and you better bet he will...small man syndrome. But when its time to stand up and be counted things have a way of biting some on the a$$. Time will tell.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

There is some statistical info on tsn claiming that babs has implemented a dump and chase style that is resulting in less neutral zone turnovers but has been a drag on scoring and the rush style they played earlier.

Its a hybrid rush/dump now????

Teams do tigjten up as the season progresses and we should start seeing goals against per get better league wide except for the disaster teams.

I prefer the team keeping possession over dumping but it explains the line structures babs goes with.

Here is the link below.

StatsCentre: Less is more for Maple Leafs