What is responsible for the reduced Goal production ?

[HamiltonNHL]

Less puck Luck ?
More defensive style ?
<Insert your idea here>

So the Leafs aren't getting many 5 goal games anymore like they did in October. To squeak out a victory Andersen needs to keep goals against to one or two, which he has been doing.

Are opposition teams getting less quality chances ? Why is that ? a defensive style change ?
@zeke - any good stats ?

Click to read more...

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

The answer to the title is Andersen’s improved play/return to form.

 

[Kazparov]

This happens every year. Teams come blazing out of the gate but then coaches start watching game tape and develop systems to slow the game, clog the neutral zone, goalies learn shooter habits, pk'ers learn PP setups.

Leafs what what, top 5 in Goals for?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

The answer to the title is Andersen’s improved play/return to form.

Andersen is scoring less ?

This happens every year. Teams come blazing out of the gate but then coaches start watching game tape and develop systems to slow the game, clog the neutral zone, goalies learn shooter habits, pk'ers learn PP setups.

Makes sense.
Wonder if the stats bear that out.

 

[Nizdizzle]

Anderson has been playing lights out since November, but the entire team was reeled in offensively to play a more defense-game. Our forecheck is significantly less effective than it was early on, and we're seeing team scoring drop, but more-so a drop in GA.

Having Anderson playing so well, means the forwards don't need to score 5 goals every game to win. So we can sacrifice some offense. October, we needed to score 4+ to have a chance at outscoring Anderson.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

This happens every year. Teams come blazing out of the gate but then coaches start watching game tape and develop systems to slow the game, clog the neutral zone, goalies learn shooter habits, pk'ers learn PP setups.

Leafs what what, top 5 in Goals for?

3rd going into last night, 2nd going into Vancouver.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

- the entire team was reeled in offensively to play a more defense-game.
-Our forecheck is significantly less effective than it was early on

Is there statistical proof of these things ?

Is there a stat that measures "amount of forechecking" ?
Where a trap team like the senators would score low, and a forechecking team would score high ?

 

[Nizdizzle]

Is there statistical proof of these things ?

Not sure, I don't follow advanced stats. I just watch the game and go from there. I'd assume our possession metrics have been going downhill as the season goes on, we're started to be outshot quite frequently.

 

[Not My Tempo]

Yea I think it was pretty clear after the Ottawa game that Babs was done with this high flying offense stuff and wanted to bunker down, and I think most of the forwards have bought into it. You see Nylander and Marner especially electing to make safe plays rather than go for those insane high risk high reward ones. You don’t see the dmen joining the rush or pinching and creating odd man rushes the other way anymore. That being said, a large portion of our offense to start the year was being created only by the PP and the Hyman - Matthews - Nylander line.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

If we are playing defensively are we giving up less shots ? Less Corsi Against ? Less quality of chances ?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

You see Nylander and Marner especially electing to make safe plays rather than go for those insane high risk high reward ones.

Sounds interesting.
Are there any video examples ?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I'd be really encouraged to hear the players can dial up and dial down their offensive mindsets as needed. I've just never seen a Leaf's team do that.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Have the Leafs been playing with the Lead more lately ? And therefore play less offensive ? It doesnt feel like that to me.

Obviously your team needs to play differently when you are up a goal vs down a goal.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

SEPTEMBER 2017
Sep 18@ OTTL 6-2
Sep 19vs OTTL 5-2
Sep 22vs BUFW 3-0
Sep 23@ BUFW 3-1
Sep 25vs MTLW 5-1
Sep 27@ MTLW 4-2
Sep 29@ DETW 4-2
Sep 30vs DETL 3-2

OCTOBER 2017
Oct 4@ WPGW 7-2
Oct 7vs NYRW 8-5
Oct 9vs CHIW 4-3
Oct 11vs NJDL 6-3
Oct 14@ MTLW 4-3
Oct 17@ WSHW 2-0
Oct 18vs DETW 6-3
Oct 21@ OTTL 6-3
Oct 23vs LAKW 3-2
Oct 26vs CARL 6-3
Oct 28vs PHIL 4-2
Oct 30@ SJSL 3-2

NOVEMBER 2017
Nov 1@ ANAW 3-1
Nov 2@ LAKL 5-3
Nov 4@ STLL 6-4
Nov 6vs VGKW 4-3
Nov 8vs MINW 4-2
Nov 10vs BOSW 3-2
Nov 11@ BOSW 4-1
Nov 16vs NJDW 1-0
Nov 18@ MTLW 6-0
Nov 20vs ARIL 4-1
Nov 22@ FLAL 2-1
Nov 24@ CARW 5-4
Nov 25vs WSHL 4-2
Nov 28@ CGYW 4-1
Nov 30@ EDMW 6-4

DECEMBER 2017
Dec 2@ VANL 2-1
Dec 6vs CGYW 2-1

nov-dec
GA: 1,2,4,1,4,4,2,4,0,0,1,2,2,6,5,1(39)
GF: 2,1,6,4,2,5,1,1,6,1,4,3,4,4,4,3,3 (54)

Record 11-6

 

[zeke]

Is there statistical proof of these things ?

Is there a stat that measures "amount of forechecking" ?
Where a trap team like the senators would score low, and a forechecking team would score high ?

yea, the Corsis do a pretty good job of showing that.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Andersen is scoring less ?


Makes sense.
Wonder if the stats bear that out.

I’m tired and misread your title.

I’d say it’s teams just clamping down and getting used to their systems.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Matthews' back gave out carrying Hyman.

 

[supermann_98]

Babs system seems to have sucked the creativity out of our guys? I don’t know tho, because he was obv coaching last year when they were all dynamite offensively.

There seems to be no cohesion between the D and the forwards, with the forwards always jumping up ice and the D trying for stretch passes that never work.

Babs teams usually roll in 5-man groups with the forwards supporting the D and staying close by to give them a passing target. This year they just seem to jump ship or sit at the red line to knife it into the zone when the pass comes. Pretty tough to watch the lack of creativity

 

[Daisy Jane]

This happens every year. Teams come blazing out of the gate but then coaches start watching game tape and develop systems to slow the game, clog the neutral zone, goalies learn shooter habits, pk'ers learn PP setups.

Leafs what what, top 5 in Goals for?

we're 2nd. with 100 goals.

 

[ToneDog]

we're 2nd. with 100 goals.

Problem I see is that it is feast or famine.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Marner and Nylander are struggling. Also, not getting much at all from Bozak while Connor Brown is just a 30 point player that shouldn't be playing with Matthews if his other linemate is Hyman.

 

[Mess]

As the season progresses goal scoring declines league wide as teams get better and tighten up defensively.

 

[BayStreetBully]

At least we’re respectable on that front now.

I’d like to see us become a top 5 team in Goals Against one day.

 

[Tak7]

Andersen is scoring less ?


Makes sense.
Wonder if the stats bear that out.

They certainly do:

GOALS FOR PER GAME - October = 3.91
GOALS FOR PER GAME - November = 3.14

Almost a full goal per game less in November.

Averaging 1.00 Goals Per Game in December so far, though obviously they've only played 2 games.

 

[I Believe]

Feels like we are still getting quality chances out there.

Nylander/Marner shooting at 3% probably won't continue much longer.