Speculation: What If The Salary Cap Goes Down?

[SI]

it didn’t In practice from what I remember. They could spend to the same flat cap as they could before. It was pro rated for 48 game s

I don’t see how it doesn’t impact free agents. About 2/3 rds of the league would be out of the mix.

I may be wrong but it seems you have adamant about no amnesty buyouts. Am I wrong about that?

I think it is a no brainer especially to help free agency’s and teams (many) that have been right up at the cap.

not every team needs to use it but it gives an option for teams with key RFAs to sign and needs they can address via free agency.

I don’t pretend to understand it all it is very complicated and looking to expand my comprehension.

what in your opinion is best way forward?

 

[Legion34]

I don’t see how it doesn’t impact free agents. About 2/3 rds of the league would be out of the mix.

I may be wrong but it seems you have adamant about no amnesty buyouts. Am I wrong about that?

I think it is a no brainer especially to help free agency’s and teams (many) that have been right up at the cap.

not every team needs to use it but it gives an option for teams with key RFAs to sign and needs they can address via free agency.

I don’t pretend to understand it all it is very complicated and looking to expand my comprehension.

what in your opinion is best way forward?

First. Excellent post! Not a lot of people here (myself included) take the time to clarify and ask questions. I don’t pretend to know exactly what will happen but here is what I think is most likely


1.) I think the NHL will do everything in their power to claw back every single penny. Nothing will be off the table. Draft lotteries, expanded playoffs. Call your shot playoff picks, whatever.

If borders become an issue, they will do a canada cup, or realign divisions etc.

2.) that being said, full crowds are not likely. They could to partial crowds using different exits and spaced seating. I’m thinking no crowds. Either way. They lose money.

3.) I do NOT believe there cannot be amnesty buyouts in the event. Of a lowered cap. They just don’t seem to be an effective way to solve the issue. The issue is they already lost money. If you buy players out and then they sign other places or replace players, it ends up costing money.

Paying players to not play and then they recoup the money just ads to the problem. It could be necessary if they go with cap armegeddon but it seems less likely.


Focusing on the cap ceiling makes no sense. There is nothing that says 20/31 teams pay the cap. They don’t have to

To me. The most likely scenario depends on how bad the future looks if it’s a

they will pay the escrow off

a.) full payment of escrow next year.
b.) escrow payments In installments

 

[Richter35]

In all likelihood, even with some kind of playoffs there will be a loss of 20-30 percent of revenue for the year. But players got paid already. Only way to fix is with big escrows- prob 20+ percent the next two seasons.

I think best for all would be to set the cap for the next two years something like 81.5/82.5 and give one Compliance buyout per team that can be used this off season or next. Let a team that doesn’t have a crap contract to buyout acquire a bad one with a sweetener. Don’t forget next summer Seattle has to soak up a player from each team too and hit a cap floor.

I think this needs to be part of a CBA extension that staves off a lockout and adds additional revenue (world cups) and olympics. It will help get that new tv deal and after Seattle’s first year I think the cap can jump. If things go well the first year with the new tv deal will let escrow go back to a low level.

 

[BlueBaron]

You mean every player takes a pay cut? You think the NHLPA would prefer that over a compliance buy out?

If you look at the math and every team buys out a player who is going to sign them with no new money? No one or teams that were well below the cap due to internal budgets. Where do all the buy outs play if no one has money for them? Just buy outs creates nothing but chaos and it costs the owners yet more money after this big loss. makes 0 sense.

 

[Dache]

If you look at the math and every team buys out a player who is going to sign them with no new money? No one or teams that were well below the cap due to internal budgets. Where do all the buy outs play if no one has money for them? Just buy outs creates nothing but chaos and it costs the owners yet more money after this big loss. makes 0 sense.

Not every team is against the cap, lots of those players would get new deals at a lower value on different teams, and some would probably get no contract or maybe only league minimum. But I was just asking what you meant, did you mean every player gets paid x percent less? And just for next year or the whole length of their contract?

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Tampa Bay comes to mind.

If the cap really stay flat or goes down, that’s a HUGE advantage for Montreal and Bergevin

He'll mess it up.

Don't look to the sky with hope in your eyes.

 

[viceroy]

a buyout changes nothing. The issue is that they paid players based on 82 games and playoff revenue. A buyout just increases escrow and players get MORE money. Not less it’s literally making it even worse.

tge players have to pay back the difference this year. If the cap goes down next year the owners still have to pay the players back.

the 50/50 split must be maintained.

The problem is that most people here are conflating TWO problems here, revenues for this year and the cap for next year.

The 1st problem here and by far the biggest is the fact that revenue projections for 2019/20 will be completely off. This means that the money the Players have set aside in the escrow will be insufficient to make up for their share of lost revenue. What to do? Some say that additional monies could be deducted from future escrows to balance things out yet many players from 19/20 who should shoulder costs won't be around for 20/21. But what can we do? start chasing after retiring players for cash? We'll have to see what the NHLPA offer up as solutions.

The cap for next year is tricky to guess but easy to fix. The cap should go down but I believe it probably won't because the Players Association wouldn't allow it. I see them agreeing to one amnesty buyout per team and a much larger escrow fund in case the fans are skittish in returning to the arenas this fall.