What if someone offered sheeted Marner

[Dirty Dan]

5 first is amazing asset management since we got JT effectively for free it would even out. Now we can sign a defenceman


Marner is very skilled but teams like Colorado don't have a single forward that soft, oh kerfoot andbarrie lmao

 

[paulhiggins]

No matter what any other team offered Marner, Dubas would have found some other way to screw things up. Like trading 5 first round picks for a 5'9" defenceman who can't defend.

 

[Notsince67]

Marner has a long way to go to get to Panarin level. Their shot difference alone will keep that from happening.

Matthews-Panarin is arguably the best duo in the league...Matthews-Marner is what you hope to one day be that.

panarin entered the nhl at 24. Had a 74 and 72 pt season on a great black hawk team. He nudged to just over a pt a game on columbus at 26. At 27, he had yet to outperform Marners 22 year old year.
Panarin had a great year and he is a great player but Marner is 23 years old.
By the time Marner hits 28 years old, he will have achieved a record that will already be considered a hall of fame career. Too many people are sleeping on this kid.

 

[Notsince67]

Even the Leafs pick isn't a late first rounder.

because the team shit the bed when he got hurt. You want to bet on Marner getting hurt?
Marner was hurt early in the second period on november 9th which the leafs ended up losing. They went 4 wins and 11 loses is the subsequent games without him.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Based on what? Marners superior performance up to 23 years old?

The vast majority of "super star" players have had their most productive season by the age of 23.

Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, etc.

This is where you'll cite the exceptions, and then act as though it's likely that Marner will also be an exception.

 

[Trapper]

because the team shit the bed when he got hurt. You want to bet on Marner getting hurt?
Marner was hurt early in the second period on november 9th which the leafs ended up losing. They went 4 wins and 11 loses is the subsequent games without him.

That’s not really making a strong case that the core isn’t a problem then.
When Malkin gets hurt, Crosby takes over and vice versa.
If you are left with 3 higher paid guys that can’t function, you have a core problem.

 

[Gabriel426]

How about what if someone offered sheeted Marner at 9mil and Marner signed it, Dubas matched it and instead of trading Kadri for Kerfoot and Barrie, it ended up being Kadri for a D like Manson straight up and Dubas used the left over cap to sign someone like Brassard at 3c.
Or instead of signing Marner to an OS, BJs strike a deal with Leafs between Marner and Lilly for Jones. A 94pts player for a team that just lost Panarin and Duchense but with all their D intact. Then Dubas use the left over cap to sign Stralman.
Or Dubas just should not sign Willie and just trade him to the Blues for ROR when he held out. Remember at that time the Blues was struggling and ROR was just traded to the Blues in the Summer. By trading another C, AM realize Dubas won't give him a blind cheque as the Leafs already got ROR, JT and Kadri under contract and he decided to sign 11.34mil for 8yrs.
Or Hunter and Dubas should not have trade down from the 29th overall pick for two more mid round picks, they should have kept it and drafted Aho then use their 2nd round pick for Carlo instead of Dermott.

The fact that Marner is sitting at home right now probably reading this thread just shows(as of today), he is not worth 4 1sts or his contract with the Leafs. Heck, none of the 10mil plus players is worth their contracts on their respective teams b/c none of their teams are in the playoffs. They are being paid top dollars because they help their team WIN. The fact that only two teams with 10mil plus players made it to this year playoffs and the top 8 teams in the league(Round Robin Teams) didn't have ONE player over 10mil show none of them worth their contracts. Some might argue, these teams have players just under 10mil. That is true but lets say JT, AM, and MM are all at 9.95mil, Leafs would have 3.6mil more to spend. 3.6mil might not seem much but if the Leafs didn't make the Kadri trade to get Barrie and Kerfoot, you add the diff(1.75mil) thats 5.35 mil. Enough to sign Stralman. Stralman might not be great partner for Reilly, but having Stralman in D is alot better than Barrie and might even allow Ceci to be shelter a bit more. Not to mention having Kadri as the 3rd line C with AJ and Kap as his wingers. Would they be a top 4 teams in the East? Hard to say, but one thing for sure they would probably be better than 81 pts before the stoppage and probably end up with a better matchup than BJs in the playin.

Lastly, I could careless how much Marner or anyone else makes as long as they deliver WINS for the Leafs. Even if Marner signs a Max deal, if he helps the Leafs into a TRUE CONTENDER(Conf. Finals consistently) and at least ONE CUP, he is worth every penny even if he gets ONE point in the regular season.

 

[Gabriel426]

That’s not really making a strong case that the core isn’t a problem then.
When Malkin gets hurt, Crosby takes over and vice versa.
If you are left with 3 higher paid guys that can’t function, you have a core problem.

I think thats the problem right there.
Our big four play with each other. Now I think only Hawks got TWO 10mil plus players and they only play 5V5 with each other when their team is down. Our big four is partner up. Keefe needs to find a way to get the THREE 10mil plus to be effective on different lines. I don't know the breakdown in terms of salary/cap distribution between 1st line, 2nd line...but I do think 10mil plus players should be able to elevate his line mates to outperform their contracts. Like if you have AM at C, you put Kap and AJ on his wings. The total salary is around 19mil. Thats a good cap number for the 1st line. If their production is in line with 1st line around the league. Which means AM elevated Kap and AJ production to be 1st liner. Now with JT-Hyman-Willie, thats 20.25mil, which is good number for 1st line, a bit expensive for 2nd line, but if the have 1st line production, who cares. If the 3rd line is Soup-Kerfoot-Marner, thats about 16.5-17mil. Abit high for 3rd line but if their production is 2nd line or even 1st line, which means Marner elevates Soup and Kerfoot productions. In short, the Leafs would have THREE lines that provides mid or low end 1st line productions.
Where as now, Keefe stacked JT-AM-Marner, if they don't produce, it puts a lot of pressure on the other lines. AJ-Willie-Kap, their cap hit is 14mil, thats pretty much a 2nd line cap distribution, and it is not impossible for them to elevate to low 1st line production. But having a 3rd line of Soup-Kerfoot-Hyman with cap distribution at 8-9mil, thats as 3rd line as it gets, it is also very hard for them to outproduce 3rd line expectations.

 

[BAM]

panarin entered the nhl at 24. Had a 74 and 72 pt season on a great black hawk team. He nudged to just over a pt a game on columbus at 26. At 27, he had yet to outperform Marners 22 year old year.
Panarin had a great year and he is a great player but Marner is 23 years old.
By the time Marner hits 28 years old, he will have achieved a record that will already be considered a hall of fame career. Too many people are sleeping on this kid.

Why are you referencing his point total when he came into the league when scoring was lower than it is today? In Panarin's rookie season, he was tied for 9th in league scoring. Marner's best season (2018-19), he was in 11th in league scoring.

You're comparing the point totals of a winger who was the sole elite offensive talent carrying his team compared to Marner being one of 3 franchise-caliber forwards on one team. Swap the two, what do you think the numbers would be?

Even disregarding points, look at their actual games. Panarin is complete, he has no holes in his offensive game. Marner has been in the league 4 seasons now and his shot is still poor. Either he's not working on it or he has and this is the best there is. Panarin is more explosive than Marner as well. Marner will always score around Panarin but don't get it twisted, Panarin is a complete offensive player, Marner is not and the things he's lacking on don't just appear out of nowhere.

 

[socko]

An offer sheet for Marner would have saved the Leafs a lot of cap space.

 

[PromisedLand]

if someone had offersheeted marner at 10M; leafs should have taken the 4 first rounders; flipped them to have better balance on the roster

 

[Caesium]

Too many uneducated people are thinking a 10 million offer sheet is 4 or 5 1sts in compensation. It's 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd.

 

[Antropovsky]

Too many uneducated people are thinking a 10 million offer sheet is 4 or 5 1sts in compensation. It's 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd.

I know what you are saying and you are right.

Ignkring the compensation...10 million is still 900 thousand less than we are paying. Meaning another team did us a favor (ex Montreal to Carolina). Who cares about term. Also, if Marner signs an offersheet he loses his squeeky clean loyal leaf image he has tries incredibly hard to retain. Marner also has a huge ego...im sure there are only a select number of teams he would take an offersheet from and risk losing his commercials and A-list celebrity status. Matthews IMO could have been offered the max quite easily. So he took less to be in Toronto. I think Marner got paid more money than 30 other teams would have given him.

This is my problem... Dubas paying an RFA more money than an offersheet would have likely been.

I dont know Matthews behind closed doors, but i wish the leafs would treat him like our franchise player instead of just one of the core guys. He shouldnt be sharing an A with Marner.... Matthews quite easily could have forced the Leafs hand and gotten more money (like Marner) but he didnt and he had more reason to than Marner.

 

[TOGuy14]

No team would have offer sheeted Marner for 4 1sts in a million years.

Aho had very similar production (a little less points, a little more goals, worse supporting cast) and nobody would offer him more than what would cost ONE first round pick... let alone (lol) four.

The compensation for 4x1st would have been any deal over 10.4M

If there was no pressure that anyone was offering that kind of money why would Dubas sign Marner for 10.9?

 

[LeafsNation75]

Was actually kind of hoping someone would offer sheet him and we could collect the 4x first rounders and spend our money on Panarin/Aho/Barzal/Rantanen.

Before July 1, 2019 the Rangers were one of the teams who had previously meet with Panarin and Mitch Marner had not yet become an RFA. So there was no chance for Toronto so have signed him when you look at the timeline of events.

Plus even if they wanted to offer sheet Aho or Rantanen they would have needed their own 2020 1st round pick and Kyle Dubas had already conditionally traded it to Carolina so they could buyout Marleau. So something like that even if they wanted to try it was not an option.

Also Barzal was not an RFA at the time, he can become one this offseason. However Lou Lamoriello was on record saying if a team offer sheets him and he signs it, he will match it.

 

[Notsince67]

Why are you referencing his point total when he came into the league when scoring was lower than it is today? In Panarin's rookie season, he was tied for 9th in league scoring. Marner's best season (2018-19), he was in 11th in league scoring.

You're comparing the point totals of a winger who was the sole elite offensive talent carrying his team compared to Marner being one of 3 franchise-caliber forwards on one team. Swap the two, what do you think the numbers would be?

Even disregarding points, look at their actual games. Panarin is complete, he has no holes in his offensive game. Marner has been in the league 4 seasons now and his shot is still poor. Either he's not working on it or he has and this is the best there is. Panarin is more explosive than Marner as well. Marner will always score around Panarin but don't get it twisted, Panarin is a complete offensive player, Marner is not and the things he's lacking on don't just appear out of nowhere.

Sorry. Did you say Panarin was the sole elite offensive talent with Chicago? You call him a rookie when he was in the KHL for 7 seasons prior?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The compensation for 4x1st would have been any deal over 10.4M

If there was no pressure that anyone was offering that kind of money why would Dubas sign Marner for 10.9?

Most of the league considers 10.9x6 with all those other perks (signing bonuses/frontloading/etc) as a gross overpayment. and that's giving up nothing.

You're trying to tell me another gm was willing to offer similar, AS WELL AS give up 4 first round picks? Are you serious? How many teams even had that cap space and all 4 of their picks? Aho had arguably just as good of an elc (playing with less), and the MOST he could get was the 1 first round pick offer sheet (8.5 million). You're really trying to say that those same teams were willing to give almost 3 million a year more for Marner, as WELL AS 3 extra first round picks? No way. It's a ridiculous notion.

Dubas got played like a fool.

The Marner camp's leverage was "If there is another Nylander fiasco all over again with me, you'll likely be fired... thus ending your very young gm career."

Dubas knew that it was true. An overpayment on a superstar? Not the end of the world. He'll get another year or 2. But another Nylander fiasco? He'd likely be fired. He lost all leverage. He was out-negotiated. When camp rolled around and the Mitch camp still hadn't buckled, Dubas caved.

 

[Buds17]

Too many uneducated people are thinking a 10 million offer sheet is 4 or 5 1sts in compensation. It's 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd.

A compensation value of five firsts on an offer sheet definitely isn't a thing. Four firsts would be the compensation on a 10M per offer sheet of six or seven years. Five years or less would have the two 1sts, one 2nd and one 3rd level of compensation.