With the team choosing to move on from Toews and Lou's comments regarding Dobson, what is the over all expectation of Noah next year? Best case/worst case and most reasonable expectations? If Andy Greene doesn't return, or even if he does, who's the best partner for Noah? Does he push 20:00 min of ice time a night? Do we want him playing the right side or left side?
I know Pulock's RFA contract and arbitration hearing has yet to be settled, but given the signed roster plus Pulock, who will return, is there a chance that the team defense with Noah playing a more prominent role, improves?
I tend to prefer to give open ended questions as opposed to giving my own opinions because I know I'm not as informed as some posters here. But I'll (for me at least) stick my neck out a little and try to answer some of my own questions.
I know that skill sets often times play into the decisions made on ice. While pairing Noah with either JB or AG is probably the most likely scenario, finding time to pair him with Leddy in addition is not such a bad idea, IMO. I believe that Noah is the most capable defender of serving in a hybrid role for the team, and I don't think it will effect his development negatively. I am okay with flipping him from the R to L side on Defense for now. I trust in the kid's mental and physical ability, along with his maturity (and granted, this is off of a limited exposure from an outside view) to be something of a Swiss army knife in Trotz's system. Maybe I'm asking too much of the kid? My excitement might tend towards an idealization of what he can do at this stage. I openly admit that. I can trend toward optimism over either negatively or realism.
With our power play having been such an issue for a couple of years now, while I believe he should start on the second PP unit, if they begin to find success, while the first PP unit continues to falter, I could see dabbling with him on the top PP unit even. Barry needs to find solutions to the area of Special Teams that could be the difference in the Islanders taking the next step. I think it's okay to try Noah in these roles because any failure would likely fall more on the "team" than on Noah individually, especially given our past struggles to make our PP an asset. I do not think Noah is fragile as far as his confidence.
I'd like to see him average around 18 minutes a night. Anything above that would mean he's excelling and forcing the issue to give him more ice time... or that we have some serious injury issues, IMO. I only err below 20 minutes because of the traditional developmental timelines for defenders (as opposed to forwards), along with the fact that we have a very capable top 4 in place. It's not unrealistic for a young defender a la Dobson to get 20 minutes a night. I'm just trying to take into account the way Trotz uses his D-lines along with Noah's youth and the relative abilities/trust Barry has, in the rest of our defense.
Points and offensive production is always an uncomfortable area to project. Especially in a Barry Trotz system. I think Noah shows enough potential to push 30 points next year. I don't see him as a goal scorer yet, even though he has the physical tools to succeed there. His skating, instincts and ability to see the ice leads me to believe he can come close to matching Toews offensive production from last year. Obviously, I'm basing that more on projection and optimism than on evidence right now.
Given team health, I think that in spite of the loss of Toews and unresolved cases of Greene and Boychuck, we are still even to slightly improved on defense with Noah playing a full time role. Offensive production is a bit more tenuous and cloudy. Other thoughts, projections, expectations are definitely welcome.
