What happened to this team's focus on possession?

[wgknestrick]

When Bylsma took over as a rookie coach, I thought the Pens were heading in the right direction. Under Therrien, the Pens were a mediocre to poor possession team (46% Fenwick close), and constantly outshot. Bylsma turned that same team into a 52% team in 2009 that controlled the majority of the play (I think they also won the cup too, but have to check). Fenwick close is the best current indicator of playoff success. ref http://deadspin.com/this-wonderful-graphic-proves-that-in-the-nhl-puck-pos-470045959 Show me a top 5 FF% team, and I will show you a team with about a 20% chance to win the cup (that is actually pretty high).

A little look into the Pen's past FF%:

2014: 50.7% (currently #14, but dropping fast. Last 10games average we are #29, 44%)
2013: 49.8% (#15)
2012: 55.2% (#1)
2011: 53.2% (#5)
2010: 53.7% (#2)
Coaching change
2008: 46.3% (#27)


It was pretty clear that Bylsma brought in a new ideal to the team when he came in, but what has happened to this in the past 2 years? Has he forgotten what horse he has ridden to victory in the past? Why is he unable to properly identify which players are most capable of helping him achieve his past "possession goal" (and pretty much what all teams are striving for)?

It is very easy to track all player's Fenwick close numbers and even I can give you about 3 sites that do this for free. Looking at TOI stats and referencing them to FF% (Fenwick%) of our players, it is clear that Bylsma is no longer using this as his measuring stick for players. Some of our best possession players are fighting to get into the lineup, while some of our worst haven't been scratched all year. I assure you the entire city of Pittsburgh wonders why as well.

2014 FF% of all of our players.
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...&teamid=24&type=fenwick&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Why is our best FF% player, (Gibbons) fighting to get into the lineup?
Why do Adams/Glass/Pyatt never have to worry about getting scratched?

It is very clear that Bylsma has lost his way and forgot how we used to win games. He isn't even icing his best lineup (deadhorse emoticon) and probably still wonders why "his" team gets dominated against mediocre teams now.

I don't think the Pen's best FF% lineup is a contender this year, but it would be nice to at least put this team in the best position to win games, wouldn't it? Bylsma is clearly not doing that.

Click to read more...

 

[Shady Machine]

So we had a 20% change to win the cup from 2010-2012 and won one playoff series. Yet we had a #15 fenwick close last year and won 2 playoff series. How do you expect us to take this seriously?

That said, I agree with the general premise of this thread. Puck possession generally leads to success and far too often this season the Pens are chasing the puck instead of possessing it.

 

[IcedCapp]

they are focused more on bad players

also: just a coincidence that that's when Staal left?

 

[wgknestrick]

they are focused more on bad players

also: just a coincidence that that's when Staal left?

His departure certainly didn't help (neither did Cooke's or TKs). This team certainly didn't replace them with similar possession players though. They actually went out and acquired some of the worst in the league.

 

[BHD]

Dan Bylsma. Dan Bylsma happened.

That is a notable difference when you compare Therrien and Bylsma.

 

[MrBurghundy]

Dan Bylsma. Dan Bylsma happened.

That is a notable difference when you compare Therrien and Bylsma.

Therrien's teams got progressively worse in shot differential every season he coached. It even happened in Montreal before he came to the Pens.

 

[UnrealMachine]

You still don't get it. The Pens USE THEIR OWN STATS. They continue to lead the league in:

1. Mustache Boy Close;
2. Wiffle Ball Relative;
3. 5 on 5 iGoals For; and
4. Bulletproof Shots Blocked per Subway Sandwich of the Game

 

[wgknestrick]

So we had a 20% change to win the cup from 2010-2012 and won one playoff series. Yet we had a #15 fenwick close last year and won 2 playoff series. How do you expect us to take this seriously?

That said, I agree with the general premise of this thread. Puck possession generally leads to success and far too often this season the Pens are chasing the puck instead of possessing it.

Math, probability, and statistics are just not your thing. If your great uncle died after exercising every day in his life, exercising would be bad in your mind too (despite countless scientific studies that prove it's positive effect). It is all about giving yourself the best chance to succeed. Nothing is 100% or 0%. There is luck, or chance too that can make unexpected things happen.

The point was that this IS a known positive metric shown to have a high correlation with playoff success. (There actually is no single higher correlation metric currently available), and the Pens are IGNORING it, even when it was pretty obvious that they strived towards it in the past.

If they were still winning games, then maybe it could be excused.

 

[spcastlemagic]

So we had a 20% change to win the cup from 2010-2012 and won one playoff series. Yet we had a #15 fenwick close last year and won 2 playoff series. How do you expect us to take this seriously?

20% chance of winning means 80% chance of failure. If you follow through to the link, there's a great graphic that shows you what kind of teams are generating quality fenwick ratings... teams like Boston, Chicago, L.A., Detroit, and Pittsburgh. It's also a season long stat, so the team that generated that rating is not necessarily the team that ends up playing in the playoffs because of injuries or trades.

 

[wgknestrick]

You still don't get it. The Pens USE THEIR OWN STATS. They continue to lead the league in:

1. Mustache Boy Close;
2. Wiffle Ball Relative;
3. 5 on 5 iGoals For; and
4. Bulletproof Shots Blocked per Subway Sandwich of the Game

Pretty much, but you realize that you just gave them 4 more to track. They don't know you are joking.

 

[pensfansince88]

everything is ok. it is all part of the plan.

 

[Shady Machine]

Math, probability, and statistics are just not your thing. If your great uncle died after exercising every day in his life, exercising would be bad in your mind too (despite countless scientific studies that prove it's positive effect). It is all about giving yourself the best chance to succeed. Nothing is 100% or 0%. There is luck, or chance too that can make unexpected things happen.

The point was that this IS a known positive metric shown to have a high correlation with playoff success. (There actually is no single higher correlation metric currently available), and the Pens are IGNORING it, even when it was pretty obvious that they strived towards it in the past.

If they were still winning games, then maybe it could be excused.

Actually I am quite good at math, thank you very much. I agree with the general premise and the link you posted. I don't blindly follow stats like you though.

 

[Shady Machine]

20% chance of winning means 80% chance of failure. If you follow through to the link, there's a great graphic that shows you what kind of teams are generating quality fenwick ratings... teams like Boston, Chicago, L.A., Detroit, and Pittsburgh. It's also a season long stat, so the team that generated that rating is not necessarily the team that ends up playing in the playoffs because of injuries or trades.

For sure. I checked out the link after I posted. I didn't need those stats to tell me what I already knew. I just found it amusing that our fenwick close was ranked the worst the year we went furthest. Honestly, that stat would be best to look at in 20 game increments, because teams that do well in the playoffs, tend to be playing extremely well down the stretch.

The Pens, meanwhile, tend to win down the stretch but look sloppy doing so and then struggle in the playoffs (over the past few seasons).

 

[Ugene Magic]

they are focused more on bad players

also: just a coincidence that that's when Staal left?

Yes. When the third line got reduced to rubble is probably the key factor here.

 

[IcedCapp]

One thing I want to point out:

All year a segment of this board has been talking about weak possession stats of certain players/the team.

All year a certain segment of the board would retort with (team's standing) and (team's PK ranking).

What you're seeing now is the Pens actual results regressing, as the advanced stats were predicting.

How can the Pens be so good at PK and shots for/against if they never have the puck?

In the long run, they can't. It'll always work itself out.

The Pens will win some games down the stretch, but they haven't righted the ship.

 

[cheesedanish87]

Injuries and the bottom 6 is why the pens possession isn't higher, Sutter isn't a good possession player, his wingers have been AHL wingers for most of the year which makes the 3rd line possession terrible.

Glass Vitale Adams aren't in the lineup for there possession either.

 

[Shady Machine]

Injuries and the bottom 6 is why the pens possession isn't higher, Sutter isn't a good possession player, his wingers have been AHL wingers for most of the year which makes the 3rd line possession terrible.

Glass Vitale Adams aren't in the lineup for there possession either.

So we have bad players. I mean, if your bottom 6 can't keep the puck out of your end, what purpose do they serve?

 

[cheesedanish87]

So we have bad players. I mean, if your bottom 6 can't keep the puck out of your end, what purpose do they serve?

Sutter is a good 3rd line center, but possession isn't his strength its actually his weakness, his wingers for the most part have been terrible players.

Glass is in the lineup for his physical play and PK

Adams because of his PK.

Vitale because of face offs, which does help possession.


The way the bottom 6 is put together its not going to have good possession numbers, the bottom 6 has been a weakness for the pens all year.

 

[Shady Machine]

Sutter is a good 3rd line center, but possession isn't his strength its actually his weakness, his wingers for the most part have been terrible players.

Glass is in the lineup for his physical play and PK

Adams because of his PK.

Vitale because of face offs, which does help possession.


The way the bottom 6 is put together its not going to have good possession numbers, the bottom 6 has been a weakness for the pens all year.

Right but a successful bottom 6 needs to drive possession. So, as I said, we have bad players

I don't need to hear some stupid justification of us having 2 players in the lineup solely for their PK prowess when they suck the rest of the time. They aren't good NHL hockey players.

 

[cheesedanish87]

Right but a successful bottom 6 needs to drive possession. So, as I said, we have bad players

I don't need to hear some stupid justification of us having 2 players in the lineup solely for their PK prowess when they suck the rest of the time. They aren't good NHL hockey players.

Bad players and injuries, i don't think a Goc Sutter BB 3rd line is bad.

 

[Waffle Fries]

We don't want to be a possession team, we want to be a grinding team.

 

[Shady Machine]

Bad players and injuries, i don't think a Goc Sutter BB 3rd line is bad.

Neither do I. Honestly, we have the players available in the system to improve our possession. DB just doesn't know how to use them properly (or isn't willing to):

Kunitz-Crosby-Stemps
Jokinen-Malkin-Neal
Goc-Sutter-BB
Glass-Vitale-Megna

That would be a good lineup, minus an Ott type player. Megna can slide up with Geno-Neal when you want a more offensive 3rd line of Jokinen-Sutter-BB. Glass can be in there to uselessly hit players after the puck is moved, while Vitale and Megna can use their speed to actually get the puck. Stemps can fill in Adams PK minutes to actually be a threat shorthanded.

It's all so easy if Dan would just sit one of his pets.

 

[Shady Machine]

We don't want to be a possession team, we want to be a grinding team.

A grinding team in the other teams end IS a possession team. The problem is the only time we are "grinding" is when the puck is hemmed into our end and Adams and Glass play goalie.

 

[Waffle Fries]

A grinding team in the other teams end IS a possession team. The problem is the only time we are "grinding" is when the puck is hemmed into our end and Adams and Glass play goalie.

I know, it was a joke about Bylsma's comment from yesterday.

 

[Shady Machine]

I know, it was a joke about Bylsma's comment from yesterday.

Sorry I missed it. What did he say, if you don't mind repeating?