What happened after the 2009-10 season? Only 1 player w/ 100+ points every season

[rintinw]

I mean... that chart pretty clearly shows that save percentage is up across the board.

I agree that PPs are the biggest factor, but .003-.004 is not an insignificant increase at even strength.

I was pointing out the fact that from 2007-08 season the ES Sv% is consistently between .919 to .923 range. There were still 9 100+ point seasons in 2007-10 period (3 years). There were 5 100+ point seasons in 2010-17 period (6 years with shortened season excluded) despite ES Sv% being more or less the same. And it looks even worse if you set the bar at lower totals.

If you set the bar at 95 points (instead of 100):
- 2007-08: 5 players
- 2008-09: 4
- 2009-10: 5
- 2010-11: 3
- 2011-12: 2
- 2013-14: 1
- 2014-15: 0
- 2015-16: 1
- 2016-17: 1

If you set the bar at 90 points:
- 2007-08: 8 players
- 2008-09: 7
- 2009-10: 7
- 2010-11: 5
- 2011-12: 3
- 2013-14: 1
- 2014-15: 0
- 2015-16: 1
- 2016-17: 1

As for .004 being not insignificant, I agree. But if we assume 70 ES points (which is what those point scorers usually end up with) then at worst it's responsible for 3.5 points decrease.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I was pointing out the fact that from 2007-08 season the ES Sv% is consistently between .919 to .923 range.

Yes, but it's not "within the range" in the sense of wavering up and down. There's a very clear, almost linear, increase to the point that a season under .920 would now be considered a regression.

There were still 9 100+ point seasons in 2007-10 period (3 years). There were 5 100+ point seasons in 2010-17 period (6 years with shortened season excluded) despite ES Sv% being more or less the same. And it looks even worse if you set the bar at lower totals.

If you set the bar at 95 points (instead of 100):
- 2007-08: 5 players
- 2008-09: 4
- 2009-10: 5
- 2010-11: 3
- 2011-12: 2
- 2013-14: 1
- 2014-15: 0
- 2015-16: 1
- 2016-17: 1

If you set the bar at 90 points:
- 2007-08: 8 players
- 2008-09: 7
- 2009-10: 7
- 2010-11: 5
- 2011-12: 3
- 2013-14: 1
- 2014-15: 0
- 2015-16: 1
- 2016-17: 1

As for .004 being not insignificant, I agree. But if we assume 70 ES points (which is what those point scorers usually end up with) then at worst it's responsible for 3.5 points decrease.

If we spot everybody that 4 points (rounded up), we get:

90 points:
- 2007-08: 8
- 2016-17: 4

It doesn't entirely make up the gap (again I agree that PPs are the biggest factor) but it sure looks like ESsv% is a major contributing factor here.

 

[rintinw]

If we spot everybody that 4 points (rounded up), we get:

90 points:
- 2007-08: 8
- 2016-17: 4

Just a technical. In 2007-08 the ES Sv% was .920. In 2016-17 it was .921. So you can't spot 4 points to normalize 2016-17 to 2007-08. If you add 4 points to 2016-17 to get 4 players then you have to add 3 points to 2007-08 to get 10 players.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

They became inconsistent with calling penalties, once again. Shot blocking may also be a factor, as it seems (anecdotally) that players are more frequently being encouraged to do anything in their power to block a shot.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Just a technical. In 2007-08 the ES Sv% was .920. In 2016-17 it was .921. So you can't spot 4 points to normalize 2016-17 to 2007-08. If you add 4 points to 2016-17 to get 4 players then you have to add 3 points to 2007-08 to get 10 players.

No need to call that a technicality, I screwed it up

In looking back to see what you meant, I noticed some peculiar trends from this past year:

From the 2016 to 2017 season:
PP opportunities per game went down (3.11 to 2.99, a 4% decrease)
PP success percentage went up (18.66 to 19.10, a 2% increase)
PK save percentage went down (.876 to .875)
ES save percentage also went down (.923 to .921)
80-90 point scorers rose from 5 to 7
90-100 point scorers held even at 0
100+ point scorers held even at 1.
The Art Ross winner dropped from 106 to 100.

Of course there's a lot of statistical noise involved in all of this, but it seems strange that PP opportunities continued to drop while PP efficiency rose. It also seems strange that both PP and ES save percentage dropped, yet this had almost no impact on higher-end scoring levels.

Even taking statistical noise into account, it seems like there's at least one other significant factor at play which is unaccounted for.

 

[PsYcNeT]

Uh is 5.98 GPG average that massive compared to 5.45? That's basically less than a 10% decline.

Scoring was actually up last year as well.

The real answer is line parity and a higher skill floor. But yeah keep talking about obstruction like you actually watched hockey before 2004.

 

[rintinw]

No need to call that a technicality, I screwed it up

In looking back to see what you meant, I noticed some peculiar trends from this past year:

From the 2016 to 2017 season:
PP opportunities per game went down (3.11 to 2.99, a 4% decrease)
PP success percentage went up (18.66 to 19.10, a 2% increase)
PK save percentage went down (.876 to .875)
ES save percentage also went down (.923 to .921)
80-90 point scorers rose from 5 to 7
90-100 point scorers held even at 0
100+ point scorers held even at 1.
The Art Ross winner dropped from 106 to 100.

Of course there's a lot of statistical noise involved in all of this, but it seems strange that PP opportunities continued to drop while PP efficiency rose. It also seems strange that both PP and ES save percentage dropped, yet this had almost no impact on higher-end scoring levels.

Even taking statistical noise into account, it seems like there's at least one other significant factor at play which is unaccounted for.

I think it could be ES ice time distribution (as was already mentioned CorgisPer60). And I would speculate that all 3 of them (PP opp, ES toi distribution, ES Sv%) are strongly connected:
- less PP opportunities could mean less "easy" minutes for top scorers and "hard" minutes for those on 3rd and 4th lines (aka PKers), which would translate into more even TOI distribution at ES
- more even TOI distribution at ES could mean more lower quality shots from those 3rd and 4th liners and less higher quality shots from top scorers, which would translate into better ES Sv%

But there is one really interesting thing. I went to check ES Sv% of "starter goalies" (defined as anyone with at least 40 games started) and that trend of rising ES Sv% is suddenly pretty huge going from around .918 in 2007-08 to .924-.925 last years.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I think it could be ES ice time distribution (as was already mentioned CorgisPer60). And I would speculate that all 3 of them (PP opp, ES toi distribution, ES Sv%) are strongly connected:
- less PP opportunities could mean less "easy" minutes for top scorers and "hard" minutes for those on 3rd and 4th lines (aka PKers), which would translate into more even TOI distribution at ES
- more even TOI distribution at ES could mean more lower quality shots from those 3rd and 4th liners and less higher quality shots from top scorers, which would translate into better ES Sv%

But there is one really interesting thing. I went to check ES Sv% of "starter goalies" (defined as anyone with at least 40 games started) and that trend of rising ES Sv% is suddenly pretty huge going from around .918 in 2007-08 to .924-.925 last years.

This is really interesting stuff. Usually we just point to one or two factors and move on, but the numbers triangulate in a really interesting way. It would probably be good fodder for the Stats forum to take this on.

 

[thegongshow]

And here I thought it was the neutral zone trap that was killing the sport and reducing scoring back in the 00s, yet we had more scoring then.

 

[MessierII]

Obstruction creeping back in since around then.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Nah not coaching at all. It's the obstruction that's the reason for lower scoring. Holding, slashing, grabbing sticks, picks, etc

Remove that and we're back to 2006 levels of scoring.

Coaching is a huge part of it. Go back to the 2012 playoffs, where offensive juggernauts were upset by defensive teams. Ever since then there's an emphasis on defensive hockey.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Make it illegal for goalies to drop to their knees. Problem solved.

 

[ijuka]

Power plays should be full 2 minutes. Yes we've allowed more obstruction since 2009 but let's make the violations hurt more.

Nah, I disagree. All that needs to be done is the refs have to start calling by the rules and stop all the slashing and interference in its tracks. Increases scoring, increases fairness, everyone's happy.

Also, after the players adjust and stop performing slashing / interference, injuries will go down, goals generated will go up and everyone will be happier. Not sure why it's so hard but NHL's shooting itself in the foot.

Coaching is a huge part of it. Go back to the 2012 playoffs, where offensive juggernauts were upset by defensive teams. Ever since then there's an emphasis on defensive hockey.

Go back to 2016 and what kind of a team exactly won the cup? 2017 even more so.

 

[triggrman]

This, I honestly think this has a far bigger effect on declining top point totals than people tend to give credit, even when just compared to say 2010 and onward. I know for at least Crosby and Malkin if memory serves they used to pretty safely average around 22+ minutes a night, where as nowadays they sometimes won't break 18. Part of that is age, but part of that is also coaching leaguewide trending towards speed, which requires rested players, which leads to shorter shifts and rolling all 4 lines to maintain that speed every shift. This naturally leads to lesser ice-time for the stars that normally would be capable of playing more minutes due to the lesser emphasis on rested legs.

Lemieux back in the day used to play almost the entirety of every powerplay and a good chunk of most penalty kills, not because he was good defensively but because he'd score a crap ton of shorthanded goals, while likely totalling over 25 minutes a night (this is before official TOI stats). That'd be impossible nowadays under today's coaching schemes and tactics.

This is my thought too.


in 2009, 10 players played more than 21 minutes last season 4, 28 players played 20 or more minutes a game, last season only 11.

 

[Griffin6612]

I mean... that chart pretty clearly shows that save percentage is up across the board.

I agree that PPs are the biggest factor, but .003-.004 is not an insignificant increase at even strength.

I agree save percentage is higher,but think about the penalties thay arnt being called. Mostly interference. So now we're slowing every one down plus no pps will make save percents higher.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

90 points is the new 100 points.

If we go back to 2006-2007, every one of those 7 players who had 100 points played on teams that had +300 PP's. Most of them had +310.

The most PP's any team had this season were the Flyers with 277. Only 5 teams had more than 260 PP's.

It's only logical that if your team has 50 less PP's you miss out on points.. especially when potential 100 point guys would be on the ice on virtually every one of those.

I think if they called penalties like they used to, we'd have 5-10 guys capable of scoring 100 every year, then it's just about staying healthy and your teams performance.

 

[Riddum]

Coaching/systems. It's no longer a league where you try and simply outscore everyone if you have the talent to do so, it's about maintaining puck possession. With that comes coaching and collapsing around the high percentage areas. It's far more complicated than this but that's the best explanation I have. In ten years, it'll be different whether it's more or even less scoring.

This. The coaches are killing creativity

 

[Lebowski]

Refs growing more lenient every year, Ovechkin declining, Crosby and Malkin losing a lot of time to injury.