What are the odds that McDavid becomes a member of the Big 5?

[Professor What]

Also, why is his increase in PPG attributed to his division when he has increased his PPG every season? No doubt if Draisaitl were putting up the same stats as last year in this year, you'd be arguing that it's only because of his division.

Hardly. I did largely walk back what I said after seeing the stats. As I said, under normal circumstances, I suspect he wouldn't be ahead by quite as much as he is, but he'd still be lapping the field. Even before that, I never attributed the increase strictly to his division. I also pointed out in the thread about the top 10 scoring list that McDavid has had the very increase you just noted. So, no, I'm not at all saying what I just quoted from your post. I'm not here to bash McDavid at all. If I were, I wouldn't have started the thread. I've played some devil's advocate for the sake of discussion, and was admittedly (again) wrong about how much higher North Division scoring is, but the thing that should be taken is that I think McDavid is ridiculously good to have even asked the question to start with.

 

[The Panther]

Hardly. I did largely walk back what I said after seeing the stats. As I said, under normal circumstances, I suspect he wouldn't be ahead by quite as much as he is, but he'd still be lapping the field. Even before that, I never attributed the increase strictly to his division. I also pointed out in the thread about the top 10 scoring list that McDavid has had the very increase you just noted. So, no, I'm not at all saying what I just quoted from your post. I'm not here to bash McDavid at all. If I were, I wouldn't have started the thread. I've played some devil's advocate for the sake of discussion, and was admittedly (again) wrong about how much higher North Division scoring is, but the thing that should be taken is that I think McDavid is ridiculously good to have even asked the question to start with.

Sorry, I may have over-reacted, not specifically to your post. There was a similar thread on the main-board recently that was causing me to lose brain-cells.

 

[Professor What]

Sorry, I may have over-reacted, not specifically to your post. There was a similar thread on the main-board recently that was causing me to lose brain-cells.

No problem. I'm not upset. Just wanted to get things straight.

 

[Minar]

We have to see. The jury is not out yet. The playoffs are going to reveal alot. If mcdavid cools off in the playoffs like he has done in the last few it doesn't bode well for top 5.

 

[alko]

Sure, there is some chance. And there is a chance, Auston Matthews will be Nr.5. And where is Oveckin? Who knows what will the future show us.

 

[daver]

Second, McDavid is better right now than Crosby has ever been. To me, this isn't a debate (admittedly, I might be biased as an Oilers fan, but I was cheering for Crosby back in 2008-09 and so on, and yeah I like him). I don't think Crosby is anywhere near the 5th-best player of all time. Top 10, maybe, but also debatable. What Crosby is really good at is consistent excellence (no small feat!) and leadership stability. (McDavid could learn from the latter, but he's still young.)

Strictly based on regular season production, McDavid is literally ten games past the point where they were literally almost identical in offensive production thru their first 5 1/2 seasons. Add in Crosby's 2-way contributions and his playoff resume and your claim becomes quite questionable. The general feeling is McDavid needs to do replicate what he is doing this season again to take this season at face value.

The OP is asking for the odds on the Big 4 becoming the Big 5, not the #5 player all-time, which is a different level to reach. To move ahead of the #5 player candidates for starters, McDavid needs to be clearly viewed ahead of Hull, Beliveau and Crosby, all of whom can make a claim for #5, IMO.

He likely will be viewed as more of a pure offensive weapon like Mario, so he needs to match Wayne and Mario's dominance for it to become the Big 5. The big question for McDavid is how sustainable is his primary skill, elite offensive skills at elite speed, over his career.

 

[daver]

Also, why is his increase in PPG attributed to his division when he has increased his PPG every season? No doubt if Draisaitl were putting up the same stats as last year in this year, you'd be arguing that it's only because of his division.

This is a bit misleading. His PPG relative to the other top scorers has not increased significantly, if at all, every season other than his rookie year to his 2nd season.

His PPG dominance this year is a statistical anomaly.

 

[daver]

I didn't say Beliveau was five (though, in full disclosure, I do personally rank him there), but I also laid out my reasons for why I used him as fifth-place for the purposes of the thread. Also, take a look at the top 100 project that this board did a couple of years ago. Beliveau was sixth there. A lot of knowledgeable people worked on that, and it's pretty clear they thought that he's in that neighborhood.

I am presuming you are not basing this on Beliveau's playoff resume and his individual hardware which is clearly lacking vs. the other great players, why do you rank him #5?

I am curious because the OP clearly lays out individual hardware as the prime metric and you also place a lower emphasis on winning cups.

 

[psycat]

Slim, simply because there has been a lot of great players around.

 

[psycat]

First, the North division this season is lower scoring than it was last season. The average scoring in the North is League-average. And, generally, playing the same teams multiple times lowers -- not raises -- scoring (see: the 1950s/early 1960s). Also, the North division is not a weak division, at all. The division with the weakest teams to beat up on is the West and esp. the East, which has three clubs with a -40 or worse goal differential (the North, by contrast, has none).

So, why is McDavid scoring so well this year? Because he always does. Each season of his career, his PPG has increased and it is doing so this season AS USUAL. That said, my early guess would be that this season is probably his physical peak (akin to Gretzky around '83-'84), and that it's unlikely he'll be able to improve on this year's pace of scoring.

Second, McDavid is better right now than Crosby has ever been. To me, this isn't a debate (admittedly, I might be biased as an Oilers fan, but I was cheering for Crosby back in 2008-09 and so on, and yeah I like him). I don't think Crosby is anywhere near the 5th-best player of all time. Top 10, maybe, but also debatable. What Crosby is really good at is consistent excellence (no small feat!) and leadership stability. (McDavid could learn from the latter, but he's still young.)

Third, McDavid right now is the third-best NHL player I have ever seen, after only Gretzky mid-80s to early-90s, and Mario late-80s to mid-90s.

So, as the last statement suggests, I certainly think McDavid becoming a top-5 all time consensus choice is possible. But, as we all know, a big stack of things has to happen and go right for that to occur....

(And no, Stanley Cups are not essential. Nice, but not essential. Everyone repeat after me: 'Individuals don't win Stanley Cups... Individuals don't win Stanley Cups'...)

For the last part of your post the problem for McDavid is that there are a lot of great players that has accomplished what he has done in the regular seasons so far(he might outpace them of course but that remains to be seen) but ALSO won cups and had legenedary playoff runs and proven track records there. Is it mandatory to be considered a great player? I don't think so but to have any shot at making it a big 5 he needs cup(s) simply because someone like Jagr got 5 Art Ross(a couple really dominating ones) and cups, olympic golds in best on best etc, insane longveity etc- to overcome that purely on regular season he is already lagging behind, heck he has not had as good of a regular season as peak Jagr in my mind. A partial season during a pandemic playing a handful of teams over and over and being on pace to maybe, barely match Jagr doesn't cut it for me.

Also keep in mind Jagr won the scoring race while missing 25 odd games. And then you get into stuff like goalies and defencemen who might have a case.. he simply needs playoff success to not only match but overcome these kind of players. I mean if he somehow put up 180 pts seasons starting next year that might not be the case but I don't see that as realistic.

As with many other players it's very likely he will end up "just" having a argument for 5th all time but that's not what the thread is about.

 

[The Panther]

We have to see. The jury is not out yet. The playoffs are going to reveal alot. If mcdavid cools off in the playoffs like he has done in the last few it doesn't bode well for top 5.

He had 5 goals and 9 points in five games last summer. It's not enough?

Gretzky's first three series were much like McDavid's so far: one loss, one exciting win, one loss. (And Gretzky's fourth series was the ultimate embarrassing loss.) How about give the guy some time? Yzerman was labelled a choker until he was 32.

 

[ResilientBeast]

For the last part of your post the problem for McDavid is that there are a lot of great players that has accomplished what he has done in the regular seasons so far(he might outpace them of course but that remains to be seen)

A lot? Not really, in 6 seasons 3 Art Ross trophies and 2 runner ups, give me a list of players who have equaled that, I guarantee you it's pretty short

Like I posted a couple of times before, if McDavid can clear Crosby I think the #5 spot is his

Through their first 6 seasons each (individual awards only, yes I do know Crosby played in 2 cup finals during this stretch winning one)

*I am projecting out this season in these totals sue me
McDavid
Hart: 1, 1, 3, 5, 5
Points: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2
AS: 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 13

Crosby
Hart: 1, 3, 6
Points: 1, 2, 3, 6
AS: 1, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5

Crosby gets cut down by losing 2 of those seasons to injuries and then has his 3 season concussion/neck/back issues

At 24 McDavid has already passed Crosby in Art Ross trophies and caught him in 1st AST & Hart Trophies with only 6 seasons. Crosby has a cup through those first 6 seasons, and McDavid will probably have to wait till he plays for his second franchise to win his first but it feels inevitable.

Crosby's total award case
Hart: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6
Points: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 5, 6, 9, 10
AS: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, 5

Removing finishes that they both have

Hart: 2, 2, 2, 2, 6
Points: 3, 3, 3, 3, 5, 6, 9, 10
AS: 2, 2, 2, 2, 5, 5, 5

That's the difference in their resumes. With a typical aging curve for a star offensive forward he'll make it

 

[ResilientBeast]

A partial season during a pandemic playing a handful of teams over and over and being on pace to maybe, barely match Jagr doesn't cut it for me.

Jagr's first Art Ross comes with and asterisk then in your mind as well since in 1994-95 they only play Intra-Conference and he only played 48 games

 

[daver]

Jagr's first Art Ross comes with and asterisk then in your mind as well since in 1994-95 they only play Intra-Conference and he only played 48 games

If this was Jagr's career best season, then it would be reasonable to question it. But three of his other four Rosses are more dominant.

 

[ResilientBeast]

If this was Jagr's career best season, then it would be reasonable to question it. But three of his other four Rosses are more dominant.

Bolded is very debatable. 98-99 was dominant, the others not any more dominant than what McDavid has done prior to this season.

Jagr
1994-95 - He tied Lindros with 70
1997-98 - He beat Forsberg by 9 points
1998-99 - He beat Selanne by 20 points
1999-00 - He beat Bure by 2 points
2000-01 - He beat Sakic by 3 points

vs

McDavid
2016-17 - He beat Crosby by 11
2017-18 - He beat Giroux by 8 points
2020-21 - He's going to beat Draisatil by ~15 points and the nearest non-Oiler by at least 20

 

[daver]

Bolded is very debatable. 98-99 was dominant, the others not any more dominant than what McDavid has done prior to this season.

Jagr
1994-95 - He tied Lindros with 70
1997-98 - He beat Forsberg by 9 points
1998-99 - He beat Selanne by 20 points
1999-00 - He beat Bure by 2 points
2000-01 - He beat Sakic by 3 points

vs

McDavid
2016-17 - He beat Crosby by 11
2017-18 - He beat Giroux by 8 points
2020-21 - He's going to beat Draisatil by ~15 points and the nearest non-Oiler by at least 20

I meant that we need not question whether Jagr circa 94/95 was an aberration or not given he was clearly better than that version in three of his other four Art Ross wins. And dominance is not simply measured by points ahead of 2nd place, or even by a 1st place finish. McDavid was as good over the past two seasons as he was in his two Art Ross wins.

Back to the original point, McDavid is going to have to be clearly be better offensively than the handful of players who have had multiple better seasons than McDavid's best to this point in his career to even begin to broach the topic of a Big 5. Like Crosby, he hit the ground running as an 18 year old but that doesn't mean his trajectory will match the Big 4's.

 

[psycat]

Bolded is very debatable. 98-99 was dominant, the others not any more dominant than what McDavid has done prior to this season.

Jagr
1994-95 - He tied Lindros with 70
1997-98 - He beat Forsberg by 9 points
1998-99 - He beat Selanne by 20 points
1999-00 - He beat Bure by 2 points
2000-01 - He beat Sakic by 3 points

vs

McDavid
2016-17 - He beat Crosby by 11
2017-18 - He beat Giroux by 8 points
2020-21 - He's going to beat Draisatil by ~15 points and the nearest non-Oiler by at least 20

I don't care about McDavid farting himself to a weak Art Ross vs Giroux while team miss playoff, I also don't care for this "before this or that age" might be he keeps it up and continues to dominate the league then it's relevant, else no.

Jagr also missed like 20 games a couple of those seasons, else they would be more dominant and against harder competition than what McDavid faced, but I do agree his 94-95 Ross is somewhat dubious aswell.

Let's remember, again, the thread is not about possibly being ahead of Jagr(which I think is unlikely and id bet if Jagr was Canadian and didn't coexist with Gretz+Lemieux he would be a shoe in for top 5 skaters) it's about making it a big 5.

Now of course the problem is that even if we say he has equaled Jagr in the regular season peak wise(which I don't agree with) he still lacks the playoff success, international resume and longveity and to actualyl pull ahead of someone like Jagr he would need all of that in addition to keeping his regular season play up for atleast a handful of years, Jagr's longveity is top tier aswell.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Pretty low but you never know I guess. Much more likely that someone, possibly him, becomes a clear cut #5, which isn't quite the same thing. I'm not quite sure how to assess McDavid this year with how historically unusual the schedule has been other than noting how much better he looks than the other players. I'm confident that he's the best player in the NHL, as he has been for a few years, but covid has made things a bit muddled.

Ah, the eye test.

Yes, McDavid looks that much better than the other players. Like Orr, Gretzky, Mario and Howe did. I agree.

No one knows what the future will bring. But so far, McDavid looks like he has a chance.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Needs cups.

Mario had no Cups and one Hart at the same point in his career.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Mario had no Cups and one Hart at the same point in his career.

He wasn't a Top 5 player by then.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

He wasn't a Top 5 player by then.

No one is saying McDavid is now.

But Mario was already being compared to Gretzky favorably.

 

[BenchBrawl]

No one is saying McDavid is now.

But Mario was already being compared to Gretzky favorably.

Mario:

1) Was a more visually impressive player than McDavid.

2) Had two complete seasons of 168 and 199 pts by that point.

To this day a minority ranks Béliveau higher of him, and he has all those great subsequent seasons and postseasons + international that he didn't have by that point. McDavid needs cups + maintain his current domination over 2-3 more seasons.

 

[daver]

Mario:

1) Was a more visually impressive player than McDavid.

2) Had two complete seasons of 168 and 199 pts by that point.

To this day a minority ranks Béliveau higher of him, and he has all those great subsequent seasons and postseasons + international that he didn't have by that point. McDavid needs cups + maintain his current domination over 2-3 more seasons.

And likely has multiple Arts and Harts if Wayne is not in the league.

Not a good comparison at all.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Mario:

1) Was a more visually impressive player than McDavid.

2) Had two complete seasons of 168 and 199 pts by that point.

To this day a minority ranks Béliveau higher of him, and he has all those great subsequent seasons and postseasons + international that he didn't have by that point. McDavid needs cups + maintain his current domination over 2-3 more seasons.

As us old folks like to say, "I don't know about that".

 

[BenchBrawl]

As us old folks like to say, "I don't know about that".

McDavid is the greatest "fast forward speed" player ever. Not as great a skater as Bobby Orr, but better at doing everything at higher speed.

Lemieux beats McDavid in every single offensive skills, except doing things at high speed. Once McDavid loses that millisecond, which will put him 1 notch over everyone instead of 2, let's see how he manages.

No doubt in my mind Mario Lemieux is more impressive, but I respect your opinion.