What Active Players will Make the Hall?

[Unholy Diver]

Even removing the off field stuff, I think this is far fetched. Even for relievers, assuming 10 more years is a huge stretch. The smart money is on the wheels coming off long before he's top 5 saves all time.

Yeah there are dozens and dozens of guys who flame out in the 150-325 save range

 

[Voight]

pujols, trout, cabrera, scherzer, verlander, kershaw, cano

I'd throw in Votto too on this.

Greinke and CC as dark horses.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Can I throw a random name out there...Roberto Osuna.

At the age of 24 he has 133 saves already. A very conservative guess at ten more years at 30 saves per year puts him 5th all time in saves.

He could be out of baseball in three years time. Way too early.

 

[evolutionbaby]

As I went through this, I thought “how has no one said Bumgarner”. Then I checked his career stats. His stats are so underwhelming for someone that was very dominant.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

As I went through this, I thought “how has no one said Bumgarner”. Then I checked his career stats. His stats are so underwhelming for someone that was very dominant.

yup.

he's a good to very good regular season pitcher, but legacy wise is living off that 2014 playoff run

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

yup.

he's a good to very good regular season pitcher, but legacy wise is living off that 2014 playoff run

Or, you know, 1 ER in 36 innings pitched in the World Series combined and 2 complete game shutouts in 2 career WC games

If he didnt have those 2 injuries the past 2 years he would be close to 140 wins before 30

 

[Blackmon]

Here's a name I haven't seen mentioned here:

Nolan Arenado.

Defensively, he's a generational player. He's amongst the best defensive players of all-time at one of the premier defensive positions. He has yet to play a season in the majors without winning a Gold Glove. That's while playing in a league with guys like Anthony Rendon and Kris Bryant at the same position. He's also a stellar offensive player, and despite the media hype about "Coors", he's put up some pretty damn good numbers on the road too.

Some Arenado stats:
585 Runs
1,081 Hits
206 Home Runs
683 RBI
.294 Batting Average
.350 OBP
.543 Slugging Percentage
.893 OPS
245 Double Plays Turned
.971 Fielding Percentage (2nd amongst active 3B, 5th all-time)
115 DRS
36.5 WAR (36th amongst active players, only Mookie Betts (31st) sits ahead of him with the same or less service time. The only other players in the top 100 with the same or less service time are Christian Yelich (55th), Jake deGrom (60th), Francisco Lindor (68th), Kevin Kiermaier (70th), Kris Bryant (80th), Jose Ramirez (88th), Yoenis Cespedes (92nd) and George Springer (97th)).

6 Gold Gloves
5 All-Star Appearances
3 Wilson Defensive Player of the Year Awards
2 Platinum Gloves
4 Silver Sluggers
Led the NL in home runs in 3 of 6 seasons.
MVP votes in 4 of his 6 seasons, including a top 3 finish

Oh yeah, and he's only 28 years old.

He still has a lot of career left to play, and yeah, being in Colorado tends to hurt great players when it comes to getting into the HOF (See: Walker, Larry), or winning any kind of award in general, but Arenado is clearly a generational player, and if his career continues the way it's gone so far, I think he'll be a shoo-in.

 

[rangerssharks414]

Arenado is definitely on a Hall of Fame track, but like you said, hitting in Colorado as a home ballpark does hurt chances a lot.

Arenado at Coors: .324/.379/.612
Arenado not at Coors: .264/.320/.474

I think Arenado is a top five player in baseball. But those splits are alarming when it comes to a Hall of Fame case.

 

[Blackmon]

Arenado is definitely on a Hall of Fame track, but like you said, hitting in Colorado as a home ballpark does hurt chances a lot.

Arenado at Coors: .324/.379/.612
Arenado not at Coors: .264/.320/.474

I think Arenado is a top five player in baseball. But those splits are alarming when it comes to a Hall of Fame case.

What people don't understand is that there really isn't a large advantage to hitting at Coors when you average things out. Yes, it's easier to put up hits at Coors due to the large outfield, but the technique between hitting at Coors and hitting away from Coors is very, very different. This is one major reason that the Rockies always really struggle on the road after a long homestand. The only park where they seem to do very well on the road is Chase Field in Arizona, which also sits at a higher than usual altitude. Interestingly, Arenado has hit better at Yankee Stadium, Miller Park, Kauffmann Stadium, Globe Life Park, Minute Maid Park, and Nationals Park than he has at Coors. He's also hit .280 at Petco Park, which is notoriously a pitcher's park.

I also can't help but notice that Rockies players take a lot of knocks for their offense when playing at Coors, but don't get extra credit for their defense or pitching when it's good.

Playing at the altitude in Denver also takes a huge toll on the body over the course of a season. That's something that's been frequently noted when referring to Larry Walker's issues with injuries over the years.

I think that DJ Lemahieu winning the AL MVP this year would go a long way towards dispelling the anti-Colorado stuff we hear so often. I'm rooting for him, as much as I can't stand the Yankees.

Here's a really good thread relating to Coors:

 

[Unholy Diver]

Here's a name I haven't seen mentioned here:

Nolan Arenado.

Defensively, he's a generational player. He's amongst the best defensive players of all-time at one of the premier defensive positions. He has yet to play a season in the majors without winning a Gold Glove. That's while playing in a league with guys like Anthony Rendon and Kris Bryant at the same position. He's also a stellar offensive player, and despite the media hype about "Coors", he's put up some pretty damn good numbers on the road too.

Some Arenado stats:
585 Runs
1,081 Hits
206 Home Runs
683 RBI
.294 Batting Average
.350 OBP
.543 Slugging Percentage
.893 OPS
245 Double Plays Turned
.971 Fielding Percentage (2nd amongst active 3B, 5th all-time)
115 DRS
36.5 WAR (36th amongst active players, only Mookie Betts (31st) sits ahead of him with the same or less service time. The only other players in the top 100 with the same or less service time are Christian Yelich (55th), Jake deGrom (60th), Francisco Lindor (68th), Kevin Kiermaier (70th), Kris Bryant (80th), Jose Ramirez (88th), Yoenis Cespedes (92nd) and George Springer (97th)).

6 Gold Gloves
5 All-Star Appearances
3 Wilson Defensive Player of the Year Awards
2 Platinum Gloves
4 Silver Sluggers
Led the NL in home runs in 3 of 6 seasons.
MVP votes in 4 of his 6 seasons, including a top 3 finish

Oh yeah, and he's only 28 years old.

He still has a lot of career left to play, and yeah, being in Colorado tends to hurt great players when it comes to getting into the HOF (See: Walker, Larry), or winning any kind of award in general, but Arenado is clearly a generational player, and if his career continues the way it's gone so far, I think he'll be a shoo-in.

It is a pretty large gap for him on his home/road splits, by far the biggest gap in the active top 10 for OPS, at home he is a few points below Mike Trout, on the road a few points below Hunter Pence, he still has a decent chance with his age but he will need to pile up some stats. The Coors factor is legit

 

[Blackmon]

It is a pretty large gap for him on his home/road splits, by far the biggest gap in the active top 10 for OPS, at home he is a few points below Mike Trout, on the road a few points below Hunter Pence, he still has a decent chance with his age but he will need to pile up some stats. The Coors factor is legit

See above. The "Coors factor" is an overblown myth.

 

[Unholy Diver]

See above. The "Coors factor" is an overblown myth.

Yeah I saw somebody on twitter said so but the stats seem to say otherwise.

.912 team OPS at home, .660 on the road this year

I went back to 2011 and there was not a single season where they gap was less than .100 and several years where it was over .200

I also looked at other teams and didn't see anyone else with a gap of as much as .100, maybe there are but I didn't check everyone only about 10 or 15 teams

the D-backs who play in another hitters park are better on the road this year, so are the Yankees in their bandbox, the Red Sox in another hitters park are at .822 at home vs .786 road. A gap for sure but nothing like the Rockies have.

I like Arenado and would love him on my team, but to say the Coors myth is overblown is silly, the proof is in the numbers.

 

[LeBlondeDemon10]

I think CC has a very good chance. The "new 300 wins" is 250, maybe even 200 and CC's at 250 now.

 

[tatertot843]

Aho

 

[EpochLink]

I think CC has a very good chance. The "new 300 wins" is 250, maybe even 200 and CC's at 250 now.

Verlander has 214 wins and he's 36, Kershaw is at 160 at the age of 31 while Mad Max is at 167 at the age of 34..

Both are still going strong..Kershaw and Scherzer will likely finish with 200+ wins at least.

 

[MS]

Yeah I saw somebody on twitter said so but the stats seem to say otherwise.

.912 team OPS at home, .660 on the road this year

I went back to 2011 and there was not a single season where they gap was less than .100 and several years where it was over .200

I also looked at other teams and didn't see anyone else with a gap of as much as .100, maybe there are but I didn't check everyone only about 10 or 15 teams

the D-backs who play in another hitters park are better on the road this year, so are the Yankees in their bandbox, the Red Sox in another hitters park are at .822 at home vs .786 road. A gap for sure but nothing like the Rockies have.

I like Arenado and would love him on my team, but to say the Coors myth is overblown is silly, the proof is in the numbers.

The notion that Coors doesn’t inflate stats is just absolutely comical.

Back to the thread topic, Sabathia is clearly going to get in. 250 wins, winningest pitcher to start his career after 2000, a Cy Young and a World Series. And ~65 WAR.

 

[rangerssharks414]

With regards to Arenado, I'd love him on my team. Even though he's on a "rival" team, I love watching him play. But I don't buy that the Coors Field factor is a myth for one second.

Sure, they played in different eras, but if Jack Morris got into the Hall of Fame, Sabathia is definitely getting in. I hate the number of doors that opened up because ****ing Jack Morris got in. Now, I'm not saying that every player that was "better" than Morris should get in... because I'm not. But some people may think this way.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Well, wer'e veering off topic but it's definitely an interesting one so I 'll continue...

Isn't there a theory that the Rockies' players road numbers are just as "deflated" as their home numbers are inflated because of some hangover effect of the constant re-adjustments they have to make? I know people have studied it and there seems to be a minor correlation with it. They looked at if they do better at the tail end of road trips vs the start of ones after having just played at home to "readjust" so to speak and the numbers don't really change much.

Also, they are basically immune to wRC+ which is supposed to be park and league neutral. Their wRC+ splits at home and on the road are massive (remember it's park adjusted) basically every year which shouldn't happen because of the park adjustment factor. Either they aren't penalized enough at home and they are one of the worst offenses in the league year in year out, or there's some hang-over effect which causes their road numbers to go down as much as Coors boosts their home numbers.

 

[rangerssharks414]

Well, wer'e veering off topic but it's definitely an interesting one so I 'll continue...

Isn't there a theory that the Rockies' players road numbers are just as "deflated" as their home numbers are inflated because of some hangover effect of the constant re-adjustments they have to make? I know people have studied it and there seems to be a minor correlation with it. They looked at if they do better at the tail end of road trips vs the start of ones after having just played at home to "readjust" so to speak and the numbers don't really change much.

Also, they are basically immune to wRC+ which is supposed to be park and league neutral. Their wRC+ splits at home and on the road are massive (remember it's park adjusted) basically every year which shouldn't happen because of the park adjustment factor. Either they aren't penalized enough at home and they are one of the worst offenses in the league year in year out, or there's some hang-over effect which causes their road numbers to go down as much as Coors boosts their home numbers.

Meh. It isn't off topic since someone mentioned Arenado as an active player on a Hall of Fame track.

Maybe the change in altitude with regards to the human body has something to do with it, but I wouldn't know for sure.