Confirmed with Link: Weekesbomb: Palat to NJ for five-year deal

[MartyOwns]

i just popped in here…so the debate is whether he’s john madden or david clarkson?

 

[The Wumpus]

The salary cap is actually pretty forgiving. There is room for a few overpaid players. The trick is avoiding too many, ones that turn into Loui Eriksson style deadweight, or massive deals for mediocre players like Erik Karlsson (lol not to pick on Swedes).

We can fit this contract just fine, we just can't add one like it every year, or even every other year. People wanted a boost for this young team, here it is. You can't transform a bad team into a good one in one offseason with a bunch of miracle bargain signings, it never happens, yet some clamor for it every July.

 

[JimEIV]

"You should try showing a bit more humility in your assertions."

"I don't think I will"

This exchange cracked me the f*** up... honestly. I am still laughing.

That exchange sounded like a line from Doc Holiday in Tombstone.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

This is the first guy we lost that actually kinda hurts a bit. Ultimate glue guy, great defensive player, and will be the smartest guy on any line you put him on.

Term and money yeah I get why NJ fans may not love it considering his age, but Palat's a f***ing gamer and I could see him aging like Hossa.

Palat has to be the consistent 5v5 scoring rates in the history of the league. This is his 5v5 P/60 over the past 7 years:

1.94
1.88
1.82
1.83
1.90
1.85
1.96

I've never seen anything like that...

Guy just turned 31, and was on pace for 65 points last year when Kucherov was out and he was able to take his PP spot.

With the opportunity he's going to get in NJ, I think he'll be a 60-70 point pace over the next 3 years.

Encouraging post from someone that has watched hundreds more of his games than any of us have. And then a post showing that there hasn’t been any decline in production from this player yet. And he’s coming off great postseason. No need for doom and gloom.

 

[Triumph]

The salary cap is actually pretty forgiving. There is room for a few overpaid players. The trick is avoiding too many, ones that turn into Loui Eriksson style deadweight, or massive deals for mediocre players like Erik Karlsson (lol not to pick on Swedes).

We can fit this contract just fine, we just can't add one like it every year, or even every other year. People wanted a boost for this young team, here it is. You can't transform a bad team into a good one in one offseason with a bunch of miracle bargain signings, it never happens, yet some clamor for it every July.

People want to talk about the Avs and how they have no bad contracts, but the thing about the Avs is that they are one of the most dominant teams of the modern era. They were 76-23-7 this year. Most Cup winners are a lot worse than that. You'd like to build like the Avs, that'd be great, but it's not realistic to exactly emulate their rise.

 

[Guttersniped]

They need to make the playoffs now for this contract to be a success. They need to make the playoffs for basically the entirety of his contract. It's just too much coin and too much term for a 31 year-old. Palat is a great player and he has a fantastic track record, but the decline is coming, perhaps sooner than later.

There's a reason Tampa, who always has the salary cap in mind long-term, decided to let him walk. They could've brought him back next season if they didn't sign Namestnikov and bought out Myers, but they decided to retain the longer-term flexibility.

This is a purely win-now move. Mega-shades of the summer of Eriksson/Ladd/Lucic/Nielsen contracts.

I'd rather have thrown a guy like Danton Heinen $2M.

Tampa definitely wanted and tried to keep Palet and they simply couldn’t afford him. BriseBois talked about this publicly, I was surprised he even thought they had a shot because I saw no way for them to make it work cap wise with all the big RFA deals they had coming up.

It certainly wasn’t just about choosing Namestnikov and Myers instead, unless they were (unrealistically) hoping Palat was willing to take a pay cut on his 5.3m salary.

Namestnikov signed a 1 year/2.5m deal.

Buying out Myers (a RFA with 1 year/2.5m) would give them -617k cap surplus the 1st year and 633k cap hit next year. But buying out Meyers would mean they would have to go out and get a different defenseman to replace him.

And they might like to keep Myers after this season since he’ll be a RFA and will likely stay cheap in the future. They don’t have much in RHD.

Tampa lost RHD Rutta to Pittsburgh, he got a raise from 1.3m with a new 3 year/2.75m deal.

They signed LHD Ian Cole to a 1 year/3m as a cheaper McDonagh replacement.

 

[DaBolts]

Tampa fan coming in peace. Yeah, we're going to miss him. He wanted too much term here and the new strategy appears to be like the New England Patriots shedding older players in the 33-36 year old range unless they are willing to take 1 year league min salary.

In Palat you've got a solid two way forechecking forward. The younger players will love him and he'll bring an edge with the speed into the offensive zone plus his playmaking ability. Great signing, but like others said, too much term for my liking. The Devils should get 2-3 solid years out of him.

 

[devilsblood]

Coleman and Danault are a year into their deals. Danault maybe maybe ages well, I can promise you that Coleman deal will be rough in 2 years maximum.



He's not hitting 20 goals playing with lesser talent.

Scouts honor?

Is this one of those empty promises?

Pinky swear?

Can you whisper it in my ear?

But seriously I trust you.

 

[Rhodes 81]

Man I spent 30 minutes of my work day mapping out our signings for the next 4 years only for it to be buried 3 pages back in this monstrosity.

This is why I only show up for the off-season.

 

[bossram]

Tampa definitely wanted and tried to keep Palet and they simply couldn’t afford him. BriseBois talked about this publicly, I was surprised he even thought they had a shot because I saw no way for them to make it work cap wise with all the big RFA deals they had coming up.

It certainly wasn’t just about choosing Namestnikov and Myers instead, unless they were (unrealistically) hoping Palat was willing to take a pay cut on his 5.3m salary.

Namestnikov signed a 1 year/2.5m deal.

Buying out Myers (a RFA with 1 year/2.5m) would give them -617k cap surplus the 1st year and 633k cap hit next year. But buying out Meyers would mean they would have to go out and get a different defenseman to replace him.

And they might like to keep Myers after this season since he’ll be a RFA and will likely stay cheap in the future. They don’t have much in RHD.

Tampa lost RHD Rutta to Pittsburgh, he got a raise from 1.3m with a new 3 year/2.75m deal.

They signed LHD Ian Cole to a 1 year/3m as a cheaper McDonagh replacement.

Just buying out Myers + not signing Namestnikov easily fits Palat in for Tampa. They could sign a league min guy to be their extra defenseman instead of Myers (Pysyk just signed in Detroit today, RHD). It's also likely Palat would've taken a bit less to stay in Tampa.

They let go of him because they had their long-term cap situation in mind, and knew the big deals to the Next Three were coming up.

Tampa's been very calculated about who they commit to long-term and who they're going to cut for salary cap management.

 

[RSeen]

This contract runs through 2026-27. Our only other current commitments past next year are Hamilton at $9 million, Hughes $8 million, Hischier $7.25, Mercer $900k, and Brendan Smith just signed at 1.1, as well as other ELCs. Let's say we sign Bratt to a max term deal. Let's estimate high and say he gets the Thomas contract - 8 years, $8 million. We also need to sign Boqvist, Wood, Vanecek, Thompson, and Zetterlund. I forget the exact parameters of what Wood can get in ARB, but that's a 1 year commitment so it's basically meaningless. Boqvist I can see getting $1.5x2 as a player with a decent number of games played at this point. Zetterlund probably more like $1x2, Thompson probably less than that. Let's say Vanecek gets $2.5x2. Let's jump ahead to next offseason.

2023-24
Using our projections from above, we have $39,250,000 committed. We can probably safely assume Foote and Holtz make the team. They will still be on ELCs this year making less than $900k. Other forwards we have to re-sign are Sharangovich, Bastian, McLeod, Tatar, Johnsson, Haula, Wood. Let's say we keep Haula of the 3 UFAs and he get's $2x2 or something. Sharangovich, let's say he plays mostly on Jack's wing again this year and hits 30 goals. We can sign him to a 5 year deal that takes him through 27-28, past when Palat's contract will be gone. Let's say he gets $5.5 million. McLeod and Bastian are probably either non-tendered or sign for around $1 million. Wood is probably gone either because he came back and performed well enough to earn a bigger contract than I want to give him, or he fizzles.

On D, We expect Nemec and Luke will both begin playing on their ELCs this year and expect both to play for NJ. We have Severson, Graves Seigenthaler, Ty smith, and Bahl on expiring contracts. I really don't see a world where Ty Smith fits with us long term so let's assume he's traded for futures or something. Graves walks, Let's say Seigs gets the same defensive D contract that everyone got this offseason of something like 4x$4.25. Let's say Bahl gets 2x$1.2. I think the right move is to keep Severson. Let's say he gets 6x$7.

Impossible to guess what goalie looks like, so I'm just going to budget $5 million each year for that moving forward.
Total commitments: $67,139,000

2024-25
Projections from above, we have about $64,289,000 committed. after B. Smith, Mercer, and Foote all expire. It's tough to project Mercer, but let's assume we sign him to a bridge deal at a $5 aav. Foote maybe costs $2 million unless he is much better than I think he is. ELC D-man +850k. Holtz, again tough to predict but let's say he is good and we want to sign him long-term for $8 million aav.
Total commitments: $72,139.00

2025-26
Using our projections and continuing to just lump goaltending as $5 million, Zetterlund, Boqvist, and Thompson all need to be reupped. We had their contracts pegged at about $3.25 million before, so we have just under $70 million committed. Holtz is also off his ELC going into this year and will likely cost a lot unless he's a bust. At this point I'm less interested in projecting specific contracts as who the hell knows what these guys will be 3 more seasons from now. Point being that this is the year the cap is projected to jump big time and we're still nowhere near it.

2026-27
Now things get dicey as Palat will certainly not be worth his contract, Holtz may be much, much more expensive, and Nemec and Luke are coming off their ELC. At this point we will probably need to dump Palat and one of Severson or Hamilton to re-sign the younger D. But again, the cap should be much higher by this point and the cost to move one year of a $6 million contract won't be a lot. Or LTIR, or whatever. It's not going to be an issue until his last year and then we can just get rid of it. Hamilton will probably be the more costly contract to move.

Again, this isn't a good contract and we can't go around signing more of them every year, but we can basically re-sign every significant piece in our organization and still carry it for 4 of the 5 years. It doesn't matter if you signed Gaudreau, Palat, or whoever, it was always going to be a breeze up until Luke and Nemec come off their ELCs. That's the point where keeping whoever we actually want to keep gets tricky. Before then, we can still add one or more significant players and still keep the ones that are worth it. We will have a number of expendable prospects to trade for additional depth or future picks to replenish as our roster ages and gets more expensive. this contract is a non issue for 4 of the 5 years it exists, and then the 5th year the cap could be over $90 million.

Luke's ELC will begin this year. He is 100% joining the team at the end of the year.

Also - we are in a position where we can live with the Palat contract, but it will hurt if he becomes a bottom 6 forward.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Luke's ELC will begin this year. He is 100% joining the team at the end of the year.

Also - we are in a position where we can live with the Palat contract, but it will hurt if he becomes a bottom 6 forward.

He will, quickly. l'm still not really on board with this deal, but I don't completely hate it either. There is just no doubt in my mind that it's an anchor of a contract by the 3rd year. If he can teach these kids how to win in that time, though, it will be worth it.

 

[Emperoreddy]

He will, quickly. l'm still not really on board with this deal, but I don't completely hate it either. There is just no doubt in my mind that it's an anchor of a contract by the 3rd year. If he can teach these kids how to win in that time, though, it will be worth it.

If he helps the kids get to the playoffs before year 3 and teaches them how to win there I think it was absolutely worth it.

 

[Goptor]

You guys are crazy.

Next David Clarkson?
Next John Madden?

He's Czech. Clearly that means he's the next Marek Židlický.

 

[TF1970]

Maybe this one pans out similar to a 5x$6 deal handed out a few years back to a 31 yr old and was heavily scrutinized, but ended up as good value - Zuccarello.

 

[Guttersniped]

Just buying out Myers + not signing Namestnikov easily fits Palat in for Tampa. They could sign a league min guy to be their extra defenseman instead of Myers (Pysyk just signed in Detroit today, RHD). It's also likely Palat would've taken a bit less to stay in Tampa.

They let go of him because they had their long-term cap situation in mind, and knew the big deals to the Next Three were coming up.

Tampa's been very calculated about who they commit to long-term and who they're going to cut for salary cap management.

How? Again he’s not taking less money. Let’s say he takes his old salary.

5.3m plus 1m defenseman = 6.3k

They have no extra cap space, they’re doing a complicated dance with the Seabrook contract. You’re handwaving extra space that doesn’t exist.

And your “just get sign a league min defenseman, problem solved!” is flippant. It’s not like depth forwards, it’s much harder to find good veteran defensive depth, and they aren’t just looking for 6/7 defensemen here.

McDonagh is gone. The lost one of their key bargains, Jan Rutta at 1.3m. Bogosian is missing the start of the season because of shoulder surgery.

They had to spend more of the available money on defenseman, so 3m went to Ian Cole. Meyers is a 25 year old RHD RFA, they might actually want to keep him. At least they can take him for a spin this season and see if he’s a keeper. (Rather than sign the random 30 year old RHD bottom feeder you named.) The buy out you proposed also gives them 600k dead cap space next season which is a bad thing.

Cirelli is also missing the start of the season with shoulder surgery. Namestnikov can play center and did in Tampa.

Sure, teams have to make tough decisions when it comes to keeping UFAs, particularly when you’re capped crunched very hard like Tampa.

Unlike with Coleman and Goodrow (as far as I know), BriseBois made a real effort to negotiate a new deal with Palat to keep him in Tampa.

I was genuinely surprised by that because it was obvious to me that they didn’t have the cap space to spend on him w/ a bunch of RFA coming off bridge deals and major needs on defense (and it turns out center depth too). That speaks a lot to how much they value him.

 

[Guttersniped]

Who cares about ‘per 82’? He has never played a full season in his life. Now that I look closer we can probably expect him to miss about 20 games with injuries each year. And playoffs stats who cares we have no chance at this point

How many games do you think were played in 2019-20 and 2020-21?

 

[NJDevilsFan21]

I really hate this contract. I hope I'm wrong, but I think this is going to be a black hole of cap space that's the difference between us being a contender and a bubble team in 3 years. As in, we could have put that money to better use, like a younger Gaudreau at $9.5M... Sigh.

The term is 1-2 years too long, imo. Whatever, it's done and I hope it works out.

 

[HersheyBob27]

How many games do you think were played in 2019-20 and 2020-21?

Who cares ? He didn’t play a full schedule let alone a full season

 

[My3Sons]

How many games do you think were played in 2019-20 and 2020-21?

Well if you include the video games all my kids played it has to be in the thousands. On the other hand, I was able to find a Deadpool pinball machine at the local movie theatre but my kids only had patience for me to play two games on it.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

You guys are crazy.

Next David Clarkson?
Next John Madden?

He's Czech. Clearly that means he's the next Marek Židlický.

I just threw up in my mouth

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Yeah I think that has to be the last type of contract we hand like this unless we make a massive trade for a winger for Hughes. Let's hope Palat doesn't fall off but if he does it's late in the contract.

 

[Classic Devil]

For some reason this is giving me Zubrus flashbacks. Not sure why.

 

[Triumph]

For some reason this is giving me Zubrus flashbacks. Not sure why.

This is the sort of player Palat is. He's better than Zubrus was and can't play center, but he's a guy who battles in the corners and makes smart plays all over the ice.

 

[Mgd31]